With No Change in Votes, GOP Would Win Through Gerrymandering

[AZProgressive]

A recent analysis of legislative redistricting maps from across the United States showcases the vast influence of political gerrymandering, which will likely benefit the Republican Party in next year’s 2022 midterm races — even if voters’ preferences haven’t changed since Democrats won in 2020.

Polling from this week shows that Democrats are currently losing to Republicans in a “generic Congressional ballot” question, with the GOP ahead of Democrats by 10 points in terms of which party voters want to see running Congress in 2023 and beyond. But even if Americans cast their votes the same way they did last year, the redrawing of maps by itself will give Republicans enough seats to win control of the House of Representatives.

According to reporting from The New York Times, Republicans are set to “flip” five seats in the House from Democrats, based on the proposed maps that are being redrawn in most states. Those five seats will likely change hands not because of voters’ desires for new leaders, but because the maps are “more distorted, more disjointed and more gerrymandered than any since the Voting Rights Act was passed in 1965,” The Times reported.

Currently, Democrats control 221 seats in the House, while Republicans have 213 seats. If five Democrats lose their elections next year, control of the House would switch parties, giving Republicans power over that legislative chamber.

https://truthout.org/articles/with-no-change-in-votes-gop-would-win-through-gerrymandering/?utm_campaign=Truthout+Share+Buttons

[elleng]

1. No sh*t, sherlock.

[Takket]

2. what's really important in Sinema and Manchin preserving the filibuster!

x1000

[maxsolomon]

4. they believe Dems would regret it.

think of the damage the GOP could have done in 2017 & 2018 with simple majorities.

two-edged sword.

[no_hypocrisy]

3. How is this gerrymandering legal?

[maxsolomon]

5. because there is no law against it.

the GQP's approach is: if it's not specifically illegal, do it. ethics are for losers.

[Zeitghost]

6. The honest answer

Is because both parties do it.

I've shown in other posts that on the national level, it's basically a wash. Republicans do it in states they control and Democrats do it in states we control. If you look at total votes cast per party nationwide, apply the percentages to seats held and adjust for a few small single district states that have smaller than average districts, the Republicans have a single seat they shouldn't mathematically have.

[moose65]

8. Yeah both parties do it...

But, in 2010 Republicans did it on steroids in NC, in Pennsylvania, in Ohio, in Wisconsin, in Michigan. They took states with a fairly evenly divided electorate and gave themselves 70% of the seats. Democrats have never done that.

Also, 2010 was the first time that sophisticated computer algorithms were used.

[Zeitghost]

9. By number of seats

California is the most gerrymandered state in the country. In 2018 it was biased +11 Democrat, that was down to +7 in 2020.

Like I said, it's a wash in the House. We will see how changes play out in 2022, but I don't suspect it will change radically.

[Diablo del sol]

12. Do you have a reference/link

Would like to see the source.

[Zeitghost]

13. Election numbers are easily available

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_California

Here is where my 2018 numbers for CA came from: The Democrats took 65.74% of the votes, which should have resulted in 35 out of 53 seats in a system that valued proportional representation, instead we took 46 out of 53.

2020 was 66.27% of the votes and 42/53 seats.

[madville]

10. Correct

It was just in the news that Illinois is gerrymandering their seats that will likely result in +2 for Democrats. It’s impossible to just stop one side from doing it.

[moose65]

7. This is such bullshit

And completely undemocratic. And it flies under the radar because most people don’t understand it. I remember seeing a poll a few years ago where people were asked what the average margin of victory was in US House seat elections. The vast majority of the respondents said 4 or 5 points, because of the perception that the country is so evenly divided. However the average margin of victory is 30 points, I think. There are only a few really competitive seats.

Why, oh why, don’t Democrats push to add more seats to the House?? The size hasn’t changed in over 100 years. It’s time for a correction, but everyone acts like nothing can be done and they act like the size of 435 is in the Constitution. It’s not.

[Dan]

11. I've wondered and speculated on this...

With the GOP hating most people of color, women that can think for themselves….

With the threat of death by their supporters to non-GOP people,
How do they plan to govern? How do they plan to control the anger and hate from both sides?

We’re a nation at war with itself, and they are the cause…. There is no middle ground in a Civil War.

[Mr.Bill]

14. Am I the only one who thinks it's ridiculous to predict the outcome

Last edited Thu Nov 18, 2021, 12:39 AM - Edit history (1)

of an election without even knowing who all the candidates are? And many of these districs are not finalized yet, only proposed. Democratic states have a few tricks up their sleeves, too. I've read studies that propose California alone could gain up to five Democratic seats. Which I wouldn't bet on either, for reasons I outlined above.