Interesting article from Reuters about the possible end of covid

[Tomconroy]

Knowledgeable people are coming to some conclusions. They could be wrong. But I hope not.

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/country-by-country-scientists-eye-beginning-an-end-covid-19-pandemic-2021-11-03/

[Sherman A1]

1. Interesting

Thanks for posting.

[Tomconroy]

3. You're very welcome.

[Steelrolled]

2. I hope they are right

but their arguments seem to be a lot more of the handwaving we have seen over the last 18 months.

[bucolic_frolic]

4. A manageable seasonal virus that kills 4x more than flu

Still seems like a worry to me. And as the article says, variants are a worry.

[GPV]

5. Masks may be here to stay for many.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

8. Long Covid is a huge factor too. More people get Long Covid than die.

https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1003773

We conducted a retrospective cohort study based on linked electronic health records (EHRs) data from 81 million patients including 273,618 COVID-19 survivors. The incidence and co-occurrence within 6 months and in the 3 to 6 months after COVID-19 diagnosis were calculated for 9 core features of long-COVID (breathing difficulties/breathlessness, fatigue/malaise, chest/throat pain, headache, abdominal symptoms, myalgia, other pain, cognitive symptoms, and anxiety/depression). Their co-occurrence network was also analyzed. Comparison with a propensity score–matched cohort of patients diagnosed with influenza during the same time period was achieved using Kaplan–Meier analysis and the Cox proportional hazard model. The incidence of atopic dermatitis was used as a negative control.

Among COVID-19 survivors (mean [SD] age: 46.3 [19.8], 55.6% female), 57.00% had one or more long-COVID feature recorded during the whole 6-month period (i.e., including the acute phase), and 36.55% between 3 and 6 months. The incidence of each feature was: abnormal breathing (18.71% in the 1- to 180-day period; 7.94% in the 90- to180-day period), fatigue/malaise (12.82%; 5.87%), chest/throat pain (12.60%; 5.71%), headache (8.67%; 4.63%), other pain (11.60%; 7.19%), abdominal symptoms (15.58%; 8.29%), myalgia (3.24%; 1.54%), cognitive symptoms (7.88%; 3.95%), and anxiety/depression (22.82%; 15.49%). All 9 features were more frequently reported after COVID-19 than after influenza (with an overall excess incidence of 16.60% and hazard ratios between 1.44 and 2.04, all p < 0.001), co-occurred more commonly, and formed a more interconnected network. Significant differences in incidence and co-occurrence were associated with sex, age, and illness severity.

[Farmer-Rick]

13. Wow, 57 percent of survivors experience long COVID.

I wonder if those who are vaccinated, caught it and got symptoms also get long COVID as frequently?

Thanks for the info.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

16. If memory serves, I read somewhere vaxed people are less likely to end up with long Covid. . . nt

[Tomconroy]

18. The CDC estimates that 147 million people actually have contracted

Covid in this country. It is highly unlikely that 57 percent of them suffered from long Covid.

[Farmer-Rick]

27. Well according to that study they did

"57.00% had one or more long-COVID feature recorded during the whole 6-month period."

[Tomconroy]

29. I put up an NPR article recently about long Covid. It hasn't even

Been given a definition yet. It seems to be an issue with people who suffer serious Covid illness.
The article debunked that 57 percent study. It was a joke.

[Farmer-Rick]

30. Do you have a link?

I did a Google search and found this on NPR: "Studies have found that for people hospitalized with COVID-19, the risk of lingering symptoms six months after the disease is quite high, around 50%, Steves says." https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/11/18/1055071699/coronavirus-faq-what-is-long-covid-and-what-is-my-risk-of-getting-it

But I found no study debunking it.

[Tomconroy]

32. Here it is

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/11/18/1055071699/coronavirus-faq-what-is-long-covid-and-what-is-my-risk-of-getting-it

[Farmer-Rick]

33. Thanks so much

This helps a lot.

[Tomconroy]

34. You're welcome. The other day I tried to learn something

About long Covid, which I knew nothing about. That little article seemed to have the best info.

[tblue37]

20. Some long covid sufferers find their condition improved after being vaccinated.

[Farmer-Rick]

28. Oh, wow,

I also heard vaccinated people were less likely to get ill from other diseases. But that may just be due to self selection. People who take care of their health are more likely to be vaccinated.

[gab13by13]

6. The article doesn't make me feel optimistic.

The article says countries with high rates of vaccinations, what is high rate? I believe that the US is less than 50% fully vaccinated, is that a high rate? The less people who are vaccinated the better chance of the virus to mutate to a more deadly strain. The article says beware of taking away safeguards, what country has done that? I see no more masks in church, I see employees of stores with no masks, I see people crowded in the stands and in arenas with no masks. We have reduced our safeguards. When we got down to 1,200 deaths per day people acted as if the virus was beaten. Take a look at a few countries in Europe where the virus is as bad as it has ever been, countries are talking about shutting down again, is that what is in store for the US? Beating the virus has become politicized and that is a big problem. Vaccinations should have been mandated worldwide.

The idea that all is good because the pandemic is going to become an endemic does nothing to reassure me.

[Farmer-Rick]

12. The article clearly said there had to be a 70 percent vaccination rate.

Currently world wide it is 53 percent and the US is 68 percent.

But Germany has a 70 percent rate and they are experiencing a surge again. So, I'm not so sure about this.

[madville]

15. Vaccination rate is quickly becoming a meaningless statistic

We know now that vaccinated immunity starts significantly waning after about 6 months. So while the vaccination rate may be 68%, it might only be 40 or 50% that actually still have effective protection. Then say only 20% of those initially vaccinated have gotten a booster, so that protection may only be good for 6 more months.

Determining what “fully vaccinated” means has quickly become a mess. If one got vaccinated 10 months ago, by next spring they could possibly have little protection from that initial vaccine if they don’t get a booster. For work and mandates, are they still vaccinated? Who knows at this point….

[Tomconroy]

17. The vaccines protect you from serious illness and death for

Longer than 6 months. They weren't intended to protect you from a positive Covid test.

[madville]

19. They were intended to prevent infection

Before Delta came along, now it’s main purpose, like most other things Covid related, has changed. The recent studies show that the ability to prevent detectable infection begins waning after two months and after four months rapidly accelerates down to around 20% effective at preventing infecting.

So Covid is not going anywhere unless they figure out how to effectively prevent infection longer than a few months.

[Tomconroy]

21. They aren't figuring that out.

[madville]

24. The anti-viral drugs could be promising for vulnerable folks

It’s just gonna be the new normal. My vaccinated 98 year old grandmother had Covid awhile back, asymptomatic, only reason she was tested is because a nurse at the nursing home tested positive, wouldn’t have known otherwise.

[Elessar Zappa]

31. The US is well over 70% for adults vaccinated.

I think we’re something like 67 or 68% total vaccinated.

[yaesu]

7. There will not be an end to covid during our generation, its a nice thought but reality isn't

supporting it so far. It is in the animal population doing its thing, we can't manage that, we are billions of doses short worldwide so it will continue to circulate in the human population, mutating & then there is the tRumpy effect, a large part of many countries populations refusing the vaccine. Treatments will improve for the strains we can manage but IMHO the pandemic could become worse, not better.

[gab13by13]

10. It already has become worse

in some countries in Europe.

[wnylib]

9. Like the Black Death in Europe, covid

will continue in returning waves of infections for decades, maybe centuries, before it fades out to an occasional, well-controlled infection.

Meantime, newer viruses will emerge and spread. How ironic that the Information Age is also the Viral Age. Information should make a difference, and it would if not for the simultaneous surge of fascism.

[gab13by13]

11. There have been people

for decades accusing people like Bill Gates of doing things to cause depopulation. Bill Gates is still demonized for this. Look what is really happening. It sure seems to me that there must be people in high places behind this anti-vaccine anti-mask nonsense and it isn't Bill Gates. Why is the most popular news network actively spreading Covid lies that spread Covid? Why is Rupert Murdoch allowing this to happen? Why is Rupert Murdoch not being called out for being a depopulation leader like Bill Gates was called out?

[Hortensis]

14. Well, this disease is following a pattern they expected, no doubt

wanted, to see, failing a new dangerous variant. Covid will become merely endemic, with vaccinations and outbreaks now. And no doubt the current new Covid pill will be only one of the treatments developed.

The pandemic I want even more to hear experts are seeing an end of is the factional hate syndrome, of which the anti-vax phenom is only one dangerous manifestation. We'd have kicked Covid's ass probably at least 700,000 deaths ago without that.

[WarGamer]

22. Pollyanna Word Salad from usually solid Reuters.

More people died in 2021 than 2020... Austria just went into total lockdown again. Riots in the Netherlands...

This is far from over and saying otherwise is wrong.

Vaccines and anti-viral oral treatments may or may not end it. No one knows right now... we might know more by the end of Spring 2022.

Did Pharma PAY someone at Reuters to write that?

[Tomconroy]

23. It's almost over here in the States. Over the hill by spring!

[LiberalFighter]

25. The possible end of Covid? Don't think the article suggests as real possibility.

It would rely on too many factors coming together. And Republican leaders making good decisions won't be one of them.

[Takket]

26. there's no new information here

We already know stopping the virus depends on herd immunity

we already know anti-vaxxers are perpetuating the virus and allowing it room to spread and mutate

we already know once Delta moves off things could get better, or could get worse again if the anti-vaxxers allow a new strain to breed.

and the article doesn't even mention the problem of antibodies not being permanent (i.e. why we need boosters)

[roamer65]

35. My gut tells me more like 2023.

I think we will have another smaller outbreak in fall 2022 to winter 2023.