26 States Are Certain or Likely to Ban Abortion Without Roe: Here's Which Ones and Why

[Celerity]

https://www.guttmacher.org/article/2021/10/26-states-are-certain-or-likely-ban-abortion-without-roe-heres-which-ones-and-why

On December 1, 2021, the U.S. Supreme Court will hear oral arguments in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, a case on the constitutionality of Mississippi’s 15-week abortion ban that will specifically address whether a state can ban abortion before viability (generally 24–26 weeks of pregnancy). The Supreme Court taking this case at all is a stunning development, but the state of Mississippi has gone even further and asked the Court to outright overturn Roe v. Wade, the 1973 case that affirmed a constitutional right to abortion.

It is far from a foregone conclusion that the Court will cast aside five decades of precedent to overturn Roe and allow states to ban abortion. However, by even accepting the case, the Court has signalled that it is willing to revisit the legality of abortion. Furthermore, the Court’s September 1 decision to decline to block an unconstitutional six-week abortion ban in Texas (S.B. 8) from going into effect may be an indicator of its intent.



States Certain to Ban Abortion

If Roe were overturned or fundamentally weakened, 21 states have laws or constitutional amendments already in place that would make them certain to attempt to ban abortion as quickly as possible. Anti-abortion policymakers in several of these states have also indicated that they will introduce legislation modeled after the Texas six-week abortion ban.

By the time the Supreme Court hears oral arguments in the Mississippi case, there will be nine states with an abortion ban still on the books from before Roe v. Wade, 12 states with a trigger ban tied to Roe being overturned, five states with a near-total abortion ban enacted after Roe, 11 states with a six-week ban that is not in effect and one state (Texas) with a six-week ban that is in effect, one state with an eight-week ban that is not in effect and four states whose constitutions specifically bar a right to abortion. Some states have multiple types of bans in place.

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[SouthernCal_Dem]

1. Not to worry....Susan Collins will show her furrowed brow

It’ll all be OK.

[FBaggins]

2. I don't think "without Roe" is likely

My guess is that there are three votes to overturn Roe, three votes to reject Mississippi's law, and three votes (CJ, Barrett, and Kavanaugh?) to uphold Mississippi's law but leave Roe in place. This would mean that those middle three would control and that states have more ability to restrict abortion down to at least 15 weeks, but can't ban it outright.

So most of the states that have bans on the books would have to start over and pass something similar to MS.

[dsc]

3. while immediately is doing work here to keep this technically accurate

it actually underestimates in at least one case. NC would be one election away (and might actually not be). Given the way our general assembly seats were redrawn, the GOP has a decent chance of getting a veto proof majority in both Houses. The House (120 seats total) has 55 safe GOP, 24 competitive, and 41 Democratic. So the GOP only has to win 17 of the 24 competitive seats. The Senate (50 seats total) has 24 safe GOP, 9 competitive, and 17 Democratic. Thus they only need 6 of the 9 competitive seats. While by no means a slam dunk, not winning the lotto. If the GOP gets that super majority it is all over. That is assuming no Democrats would vote for this which is by no means a sure thing either. Both the marriage ban and HB2 got some Democratic votes when they passed.

[Solly Mack]

4. Don't fret. Someone will come along to say how the worst it can get is making it even harder

for women to access health care in Mississippi (thereby effectively removing abortion as an option) but not result in a total ban.

Because, you know, missing work to travel hundreds of miles is absolutely no hardship for a woman. So what if the nearest state they can get an abortion requires a waiting period? That's just what? A few more days work they lose - and gee, that's only money. And it's not as if an employer will fire her for missing several days. That never happens.

So what if she has other children and must either pay someone to watch them or take them along? Again, that's just money. She has plenty, right? Right? She has a job, right? She has a support network, right? Not like she could possibly be in an abusive relationship, right?

Don't no one go worrying their pretty little heads over restrictions that effectively remove abortion as an option because the SCOTUS might not kill Roe and instead only effectively allow punitive restrictions to go into effect.

Don't you feel all better now?

(if you have to ask...)