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Claustrum

(4,845 posts)
1. If he lost in a supposedly good year for democrats (Biden winning presidency),
Mon Dec 6, 2021, 11:04 AM
Dec 2021

does he have a real chance when it's supposed to be a bad year for democrats?

Claustrum

(4,845 posts)
3. Nice. I haven't looked at the redistricting map at all or factor that in.
Mon Dec 6, 2021, 11:17 AM
Dec 2021

If more of Brooklyn is taken into the district, maybe it would be more favorable for him. Anyhow, I wish him luck since I voted for him twice and will vote for any democrat on the ticket.

I would love to have the same surprise I had in 2018 when I found out he was leading before the media was announcing his lead/win.

brooklynite

(94,597 posts)
8. By necessity, the district will expand into Brooklyn...
Mon Dec 6, 2021, 12:13 PM
Dec 2021

The question is: does it go north (Hispanic/Chinese) or east (Italian)?

brooklynite

(94,597 posts)
4. 2020 was not a good year for Democrats...
Mon Dec 6, 2021, 11:17 AM
Dec 2021

We won the White House because people voted against Trump, and we won the Senate largely because Trump depressed turnout in the Georgia runoffs. But we did poorly down-ticket, especially in the House.

Beastly Boy

(9,375 posts)
5. That was the popular sentiment the first time he won in 2018,
Mon Dec 6, 2021, 11:24 AM
Dec 2021

when pundits predicted a bad year for Dems.

If he runs, he has a chance. If he doesn't, he has none.

Claustrum

(4,845 posts)
6. Huh? 2018 was a bad year for dems from pundits?
Mon Dec 6, 2021, 11:26 AM
Dec 2021

We didn't have the presidency, the house, or the senate and there was a huge backlash and shock with Trump's win. How was that a bad year for dem?

Claustrum

(4,845 posts)
11. I mean, in that case, he would still be a bad candidate in 2022.
Mon Dec 6, 2021, 02:35 PM
Dec 2021

The fact he marched in a BLM protest is never going away. Good thing though as someone pointed out that redistricting is drawing more of Brooklyn into district 11 so it might help him just enough to win.

karynnj

(59,504 posts)
12. While it was a Presidential election and we won, it was LESS good for the House of Representatives
Mon Dec 6, 2021, 03:03 PM
Dec 2021

That could suggest that Trump himself ran behind generic Republican.

What could that mean for 2022?

The first question may be what happened to get this mixed result in 2020. It might mean that where Biden, a well known Democratic figure won, the Republicans used various scare factors (defund the police etc) to get some people in purple areas to vote for Republicans. The goal might have been - remove Trump, but tie the hands of Biden through a Republican Congress.

To change this in 2022, the question might be whether people fear the Democrats having the same power they have now. The reality of the Biden years, where he sought transformative infrastructure and social programs -- but nothing that negatively impacted the police etc might make the 2020 "bogeyman" less scary.

2022 might look very different in 6 months. Covid may look less ominous after a winter peak. The economy is doing well and the inflation issue is somewhat bogus as part of it is because of the severe constraint on supply as demand from a growing economy increases. Economists have always said that the best stimulus is one that gives most money to the bottom - not the top 1%, because they reliably spend the money! By next year, the international supply chain problems will very likely be better.

One thing that could very well be a problem for Republicans is that almost no matter what the SC does on Roe vs Wade, there will be a call to codify a national policy in law. There are people (Klobachar) already speaking of that. This might move more purple areas to want Democrats. (It might be that the evangelicals in favor of a complete ban are already in totally red areas.)

W_HAMILTON

(7,869 posts)
13. Is he going to stop shitting on fellow Democrats this time around?
Mon Dec 6, 2021, 03:38 PM
Dec 2021

Or did he still not learn his lesson from his last electoral loss?

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