Russian Air Defense Missile Systems Spotted Moving Closer To Ukraine

[Javaman]

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/43447/russian-air-defense-missile-systems-move-closer-to-ukraine-as-tensions-build

Russian military hardware, including medium-range surface-to-air missile systems, continues to pour into areas of the country adjacent to Ukraine, as concerns grow that Moscow could be preparing some kind of new invasion of Ukrainian territory. Videos that recently emerged on social media appear to show an extensive array of Buk-M1 air defense systems and related equipment, together with tanks and artillery, at a rail marshaling yard relatively close to the border with Ukraine. Meanwhile, Chief of the Defense Staff in the United Kingdom, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, has warned that a full-scale invasion of Ukraine “would be on a scale not seen in Europe since World War Two.”

The videos in question were posted to the Russian Telegram messaging site yesterday and have been assessed by the Conflict Intelligence Team, or CIT, an open-source information analysis group. One clip, taken from the cab of a moving train, shows elements associated with the Buk-M1 air defense system, known in the West as the SA-11 Gadfly, at Maslovka station in western Russia's Voronezh Oblast. According to CIT, the presence of 9S18M1 Kupol acquisition radar (NATO reporting name Snow Drift) indicates that a battalion-strength Buk-M1 system is present there. This video was recorded on December 6, according to the date on the train driver’s instrument panel.

Snip

In the first video, at least, there is evidence that the individual hull numbers on certain vehicles from the Buk-M1 system have been painted out, according to CIT analysis. In the past, these identification features have been removed from Russian vehicles as standard practice for participation in the conflict in eastern Ukraine.

snip

These are by no means the first such movements of Russian military equipment close to the country’s borders with Ukraine, but it is significant that air defense systems are now also present in such strength. Previously, Western intelligence and open-source analysts have tracked Russia’s positioning of heavy armor, artillery, and even long-range missiles in these areas. For them to operate in a potential conflict, they would require a protective ‘umbrella’ provided by the highly mobile Buk-M1 system, as well as other air defense systems. Meanwhile, Russia already possesses a considerable airpower advantage over Ukraine, and each additional air defense system in the region further erodes Ukraine’s ability to conduct any kind of meaningful air operations in a future conflict.

more at link...

[Archetypist]

1. Putin assesses NATO won't intervene militarily

I would be surprised if NATO did. Putin is willing to (make his country) bear the brunt of economic sanctions if it means 'getting Ukraine back'. He already has a track record of annexation, and the west doesn't want a military confrontation with Russia. Large parts of Western Europe have a dependence on Russian gas exports, too, which will limit the effectiveness of sanctions. Could it all be a bluff by Putin? Sure, but his track records suggests otherwise.

[Ray Bruns]

2. Agreed. Putin is not bluffing.

And we all know what happened the last time a dictator made territorial demands on another eastern European country.

[ColinC]

3. I'm sensing something very bad happening before April.

[Texaswitchy]

4. Sooner or later you fight back or get taken over.

Who is next on the list.

He was already running the white house.

Keep giving into bullies and you gain nothing.

My Grandma had her Czech relatives in under Nazi control.

Some died in concentration camps.

Some escaped and fought in the British Army.

Some were in the resistance movement.

Sort of personal.

[pecosbob]

5. Let's all play WWND...What Would Nato Do!

Two things Putin seemingly cannot tolerate...a Nato-aligned Ukraine with the ability to shut off Russia's natural gas pipeline to Europe or a Nato air or naval base in a Ukraine-controlled Crimea. Turkey becomes significant yet again as the Bosporus becomes a flash point.

[Texaswitchy]

6. Who is Putin to demand anything.

He rules a country that is dieing.

Read up about lack of population growth plus the virus killing off a lot of Russians.

He robbed the country of their money.

Sooner or later you stand and fight or have Putin running your life.

The is why he bought out the Republicans.

Do to all the dirty work.

[pecosbob]

7. A two-bit gangster with gas stations

[Texaswitchy]

9. Yes.

Russia is now bankrupt because of him.

He needs these other countries for their wealth.

He nothing but a bully and thug like Trump.

There is only way to deal with a bully.

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

8. An air defense system?

It sounds like Putin is trying to protect Russia from an air invasion from Ukraine.

Very odd.

[Texaswitchy]

10. Russia is in bad shape.

Putin knows it.

Free people do not want to live under his control.

Putin is trying to pull the victim card.

This is like Czechoslovakia all over again.

Didn't appease Hitler.

Hitler after Poland.

Do we learn from history.

Dictators cannot be appeased.

[pecosbob]

11. To protect Russian forces from a Nato counter-attack

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

12. That makes some sense, if NATO will come to the aid of a non-NATO state.

[pecosbob]

13. It appears that the Ukrainian government and people is/are still intent on membership