Friday Talking Points -- The Hidden Biden Boom

[ChrisWeigant]

Even though it is still laughably early to make any such future predictions -- especially when it comes to both the economy and politics -- Joe Biden and the Democrats could actually be poised to have a decent shot in next year's midterm elections.

That may sound shocking to some, mostly because pundits are currently predicting doom and gloom for both Biden's presidency and the midterms. But next November is still a long way away, and things change over time. Including current preconceptions.

We're tempted to dust off the Clinton-era slogan: "It's the economy, Stupid," but it wouldn't cover the entire story for 2022. This time around, it would have to be: "It's the economy and the pandemic, Stupid!" Where we as a nation are next summer (and to a lesser extent, where the rest of the world is) when it comes to COVID-19 is still completely unknown. Will it have faded into being merely an annoying epidemic instead of a deadly pandemic? Will milder variants dominate and drive out the more-deadly strains (such as Delta)? Will we continue to increase the percent of vaccinated Americans and fully-boosted Americans until we truly reach herd immunity? Nobody really knows.

Joe Biden was elected for many reasons, but one big one was to provide a healthy dose of sanity to the country's response to a deadly virus. It is no coincidence that the last time his job approval poll numbers were impressive was this past summer, in the brief period where it seemed as if COVID was on the run and life had largely returned to normal. Then came Delta. And with it, a return to the exhaustion and frustration everyone has been feeling since the pandemic began. "When will it be over?" Americans wonder, wistfully. Until people feel optimistic that we have indeed reached some sort of "end of the road" with COVID, Biden is likely to continue to pay a political price.

On the economy, however, things look a lot brighter in general. The one thing dragging Biden down at the moment is inflation -- everything costs more, including the big two: gasoline and food. That hits everyone's pocketbook in a very tangible way. And Republicans have already leapt to fan these flames, in an effort to distract everyone from all the good economic news (an effort which, at this point, has largely succeeded). The White House is trying to push back by "working the refs" in the media, which is indeed a worthwhile thing to attempt. As the Washington Post pointed out recently, press coverage of Biden has at times been even more negative than the media's coverage of Trump in the preceding year (while Trump was completely failing to lead the country through a deadly pandemic). If the media would cover the good news and the bad on the economy with equal weight, people would feel a lot better about where the country finds itself right now -- at least that's the case that the White House is making.

They've got solid data to back them up on this, though. The price of gas is already beginning to come down, and experts predict it'll fall even further next year. That will help enormously, in terms of how people feel about the current economic picture. The supply-chain problems are also slowly improving, so that will also likely go away as a political issue early next year.

But if you take a look at just about any other part of the economy, the news is not just good, it is downright fantastic. Here are some stats to sink your teeth into, first from Politico:

The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits plunged last week to the lowest level in 52 years, more evidence that the U.S. job market is recovering from last year's coronavirus recession.

Unemployment claims dropped by 43,000 to 184,000 last week, the lowest since September 1969, the Labor Department said Thursday. The four-week moving average, which smooths out week-to-week ups and downs, fell below 219,000, lowest since the pandemic hit the United States hard in March 2020.

More of this excellent news is itemized in Washington Monthly (emphasis in original):

Based on the data, President Biden and the Democratic Congress are set to preside over the strongest two-year performance on growth, jobs, and income in decades -- so long as the current cycle of inflation eases, and the Omicron variant does not trigger another round of shutdowns. The future paths of inflation and the pandemic are large and important unknowns -- but if they break right, everything else points to a Biden boom through 2022.

Over the first three quarters of this year, real GDP increased at a 7.8 percent annual rate--that's adjusted for the current inflation. The Federal Reserve expects real growth of 5.9 percent for all of 2021, followed by another 3.8 percent increase in 2022. By any recent standard, these are extraordinary gains. From 2000 to 2019, real GDP grew at an average annual rate of 2.2 percent and never reached 3 percent. Investors have noticed: From January 20 to December 7, 2021, the S&P 500 Index jumped 21.7 percent.

Strong growth usually means healthy income gains, and the disposable income of Americans grew 3 percent after inflation over the 10 months from January to October. That far outpaces the gains of only 0.5 percent for the comparable period in 2019 and 1.7 percent in 2018. Wages and salaries comprise nearly all of most households' incomes, and those earnings also are rising much faster than normal. From January through October, all wage and salary income paid by private businesses increased 2.4 percent after inflation, compared to gains of 0.3 percent for the comparable period in 2019 and 0.7 percent in 2018.

The main reason for the big increase in total wage and salary income is that 5,675,000 Americans who were unemployed when this year began had found new jobs by November. With support from the rounds of pandemic stimulus enacted in December 2020 and January 2021, the jobless rate fell from 6.3 percent last January to 4.2 percent in November, or by one-third over 11 months. Following the Great Recession, it took six years for the jobless rate to fall by one-third.

Got all of that? Not a single piece of bad news to be found, outside of inflation. And if the White House is right about predicting that inflation will ease soon, then by next summer people are going to be noticing this good news much more than the inflationary blip.

Job openings are everywhere. More unemployed people found work in 2021 than during the first year of any other president in history. Wages are rising faster than they have in a decade, and are expected to rise even further next year (3.9 percent is the current prediction). Employers are competing with one another for workers, which gives workers bargaining power they haven't had in a very long while. Unemployment is almost down to the same rate it was before COVID. Economic growth is astoundingly good and will also be extremely good next year. People have more money in their pockets even after adjusting for inflation. Savings rates are way up. We are in the midst of the fastest economic recovery in American history, in actual fact.

These are all underlying conditions which normally indicate how the public is feeling about whatever party is in charge in Washington. How people feel about the economy either lifts or sinks political parties' chances in elections, pretty much no matter what else is happening at the time. And if this economic boom continues, eventually public perception of Biden and the Democrats may recover just as fast as the economy has. Such shifts in perception lag reality, sometimes by two or three months, so this won't happen until at least early 2022. But if inflation recedes, by February or March the underlying good economic picture may come to dominate how people see their own financial future a lot more. Call it the (so-far) "hidden Biden boom," perhaps.

In other political news, Congress is actually getting some things done (gasp!). The Pentagon budget is moving towards President Biden's desk, the debt ceiling fight has been successfully defused and should pass the Senate next week, and the Build Back Better bill is being vetted by the Senate parliamentarian. Next week should continue this streak of Congress doing the job they got send to Washington to do, although the biggest of these efforts (Build Back Better) is, as always, going to be dependent on the whims of Joe Manchin. (We wrote about two positive developments in the way Democrats are selling this bill earlier this week, if anyone's interested into a deeper dive on the subject.)

In more sobering news, President Joe Biden gave a very moving eulogy today at the National Cathedral for Bob Dole, a man he knew and worked with during his time in the U.S. Senate.

And in the most sobering news of all, Republicans continue to plot their next coup attempt right out in the open for all to see -- except that now the media is slowly waking up from its long nap and actually reporting on all the frightening things the GOP is doing to ensure that they can override the will of the voters in the next presidential election.

Speaking of massive contempt for the rule of law, Donald Trump is about to face a subpoena in New York on one of the investigations into his company's rampant tax and banking fraud, which is certainly interesting news to hear. Also, contempt of Congress charges could be voted on soon for two of Trump's minions who were in the middle of the January 6th insurrection plot, so there's that to look forward to as well.

Because it is the season, whackadoodle Republicans are celebrating the birth of the Prince of Peace by posing (with their young children taking part, naturallly) while brandishing deadly weapons. None of that wimpy "turn the other cheek" here, one assumes!

A homeless man with mental problems has been arrested for allegedly torching the Christmas-tree-shaped display (it's [inot a tree], dammit!) outside the Fox News headquarters in New York City. No word on whether any chestnuts were toasted on the roaring fire which resulted. Jimmy Kimmel had perhaps the funniest comment on the whole thing, announcing: "The fire is believed to have started after Fox News's pants caught on fire." Kimmel also picked up on the fact that the display was not actually a tree: "I've seen trees -- this is not one of them. That is a hollow structure that sort of resembles a tree, in the same way Tucker Carlson is a hollow structure that sort of resembles a human."

Speaking of late-night comics, tune in to Jimmy Fallon on NBC tonight if you want to see Joe Biden's first late-night appearance since he took office.





For both taking action and making his case to the public in a very clear way this week, Adam Schiff wins our Most Important Democrat Of The Week award.

Although little-noticed in the media, Schiff managed to pass a very important bill through the House this week, one that would reform a lot of the weak spots in our democracy. Most of these weak spots were either exploited or just shredded into tatters by Donald Trump and his administration. No case can be intelligently made that these reforms are not necessary, because Trump is all the proof anyone needs.

Which Schiff pointed out, in an opinion piece in the Washington Post titled: "Congress Must Act To Protect Democracy From Presidential Abuse, Just Like It Did After Nixon." In Schiff's own words:

In the wake of presidential abuses of power during the Nixon administration, Congress responded with a broad set of reforms to strengthen the institutions of our democracy. The same must be done following the Trump administration.

That is why the House on Thursday passed the Protecting Our Democracy Act to shore up our institutions against presidential abuses. It is essential the Senate does the same.

. . .

During the course of [Donald Trump's] four years in office, many of the Nixon-era norms were broken down, exposing new vulnerabilities to our democracy. The wall separating the White House from the Justice Department, for example, was obliterated as Attorney General William P. Barr acted on the president's urging to reduce the sentence of a man convicted of lying to Congress as part of the Russia investigation. Barr also made a case go away completely against another of the president's men, who lied to the FBI to cover up his own contacts with the Russian government.

Members of the administration not only violated the Hatch Act, which prohibits the use of federal employees and federal property as instruments of a presidential campaign, but also did so proudly and flagrantly. For example, Trump held the Republican Party's 2020 convention on White House grounds to accept his party's nomination. And when a special counsel said that presidential adviser Kellyanne Conway violated the law and should be fired, she scoffed at the finding. "Blah, blah, blah," was her contemptuous reply.

The emoluments clause of the Constitution proved impossible to enforce effectively, and Trump paved the way for future presidents to enrich themselves while in office as he bridled at the idea of divesting his family business of interests patronized by foreign powers bent on currying favor with the first family.

The list of Trump administration presidential abuses is nearly endless: violations of the Impoundment Act and usurpation of Congress's power of the purse; the temporary appointment of Senate-confirmable positions to evade the need for Senate approval; the abuse of presidential emergency declarations; Trump's gleeful acceptance of foreign help in one election and efforts to coerce another foreign power into helping him in the next (which led to the first of his two impeachments).

. . .

The bill's provisions address each of the deficiencies identified above and more, not as a punishment of the last president, who is now beyond legislative reach, but to guard against any future president of either party who may be tempted to make himself a king.

Many of the protections in the bill have had bipartisan support in the past; in fact, many of these provisions had once been authored by Republicans. One would expect the GOP to embrace such reforms as desirable limits on the current Democratic administration. But Republicans may fear the reforms will alienate the former president and bring his disdain upon them. Once again, they will have to answer the question: Does their devotion to our Constitution outweigh their fear of Trump? For the sake of our country, we must hope that it does.

Schiff is not mincing any words. Our democracy is what is at stake here. Even if Donald Trump is never re-elected, the weaknesses in our current system will still be there for any Trumpian clone to exploit at will -- unless Congress acts now. There is a window of opportunity for reform that is going to close very soon, as the memory of all these abuses of power fades from the public mind.

Actually passing the bill is likely going to require filibuster reform in the Senate, though, since the GOP could care less about abuses of power as long as they think Trump will be the one doing such things. Their fear of Trump's wrath is going to keep them from doing the right thing, so Schiff's plea in his final paragraph is going to go unheeded by most Republican senators (while one or two might be convinced to act, that is far short of the ten that would be needed, with no filibuster reform).

Schiff both acted (by getting the bill passed) and was his own cheerleader for this effort this week. Both were impressive, we must say. Which is why he's the clear winner of this week's Most Impressive Democrat Of The Week.

[Congratulate Representative Adam Schiff on his House contact page, to let him know you appreciate his efforts.]





This one was pretty easy, because two Democrats in the Senate broke ranks and voted for a bill that is never going to become law. It was a political stunt, and both men obviously felt that doing so would boost their bona fides back home with rural voters. Even so, there are plenty of other Democrats who could also have done so for the same reason, but they all voted against the measure.

Senators Joe Manchin and Jon Tester, from West Virginia and Montana (respectively), voted with all the Republicans to pass a bill banning Joe Biden from implementing vaccine mandates. Biden's efforts have already been tied up in the courts and wouldn't have taken effect until next year anyway, so this bill was completely meaningless, as things stand now.

It has zero chance of becoming law. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is never going to bring it up for a vote, and even if by some strange miracle it did pass the House, Joe Biden is certainly going to veto it. And 52 votes in the Senate are nowhere near the amount needed to overturn such a veto.

So the entire thing was political posturing. And it wouldn't have made anywhere near as big a media splash if the bill had gone down to defeat (as it would have if Tester and Manchin hadn't crossed the aisle). So for aiding and abetting this political theater staged by the GOP, both senators are our Most Disappointing Democrat Of The Week winners.

[Contact Senator Joe Manchin on his Senate contact page, and Senator Jon Tester on his Senate contact page, to let them know what you think of their actions.]




Volume 644 (12/10//21)

Before we begin, a rather important program note is necessary. This will be the final Friday Talking Points column of the year. For the next two Fridays, we will instead be running our year-end awards columns, so be sure to tune in for them (and feel free to make your own nominations for the first of these). Then the final Friday of the year is New Year's Eve, so we'll be as far from the keyboard as you can imagine. Regular Friday Talking Points columns will resume on January 7th in the new year, so we'll see you back here then. And while we've got your attention, if you enjoy reading these Friday columns throughout the year, please consider donating to our year-end fundraising effort, to keep the lights on for all of 2022. Thanks!



The good times are rolling

Democrats need to push back on the current singular focus on inflation. The Biden White House already realizes this, but it would help if a few other Democrats started beating this drum.

"You know, I hear all kinds of doom and gloom from Republicans -- and, sadly, the media -- over the state of the economy. OK, sure, inflation is a problem right now because the economy is roaring back so quickly after the COVID recession that it has driven prices up. But that's a temporary problem that will ease soon. But there is also plenty of good news, considering where we were a year or two years ago. Consider: we just had the best week of new unemployment claims since 1969. Best number in 52 years, folks! We've seen the strongest performance on growth, jobs, and income in decades. Growth is now at an astounding 7.8 percent, and is projected to be at 3.8 percent next year. From 2000 to 2019, this number never even hit 3.0 percent, just so you understand how rare this is. The stock market continues to hit new highs on a regular basis. For the first 10 months of this year, disposable income grew by 3 percent -- even after inflation is taken into account. In the same period, wages and salaries grew 2.4 percent -- after inflation. Almost 6 million Americans have returned to work this year -- a number far higher than any other first-year president has ever seen. People are quitting jobs in record numbers because so many better jobs are available. Unemployment was at 6.3 percent when Joe Biden became president. It has fallen to 4.2 percent now, and it continues to drop. Unemployment fell by a third over 11 months. After the Great Recession, it took six whole years for that to become true. We are in the fastest recovery America has ever seen, and it's not over yet. Once inflation dampens down, people are going to realize the economy is truly stronger than ever, on President Biden's watch."



Pass Build Back Better to fight inflation

Democrats should demagogue on the inflation issue, since Republicans certainly never worry about the accuracy of any of their claims, right?

"Nobel-winning economists have publicly said that the best thing we could do to fight inflation right now would be to immediately pass the Build Back Better plan and put it on Joe Biden's desk. Investing in the human infrastructure of this country means investing in families and parents and workers and children and seniors. It will dramatically reduce expenses for tens of millions of families. While Republicans make political hay out of families having to pay more for gas and food, they absolutely refuse to help families pay for child care and education -- even though that would help family budgets enormously. And, at the same time, this would fight inflation and get prices back under control. Want to do something about inflation? Pass Build Back Better. Or ask Republicans what they'd do -- because for all the noise they're making, they have absolutely no answer to that question at all."



Reduce family costs

This is a big arrow in the Democratic quiver, because it is so easy for voters to see how they could personally benefit.

"I see the Republicans have come up with yet another of their insipid political phrases to explain why they are so opposed to giving hardworking American parents a break. They have decided that all the benefits of the Build Back Better plan are somehow a 'toddler takeover' by the federal government. Yep, that's really what Mitch McConnell is calling it. They're hoping you only hear that, and never hear what the bill would actually do for you. For every parent out there paying an exorbitant amount for child care, this bill would cap your expenses at seven percent of your income. Figure out what you make, multiply it by seven percent, and that's all you'll have to pay for child care for the whole year. That's some sort of 'toddler takeover'? Seriously? And that's not to mention the two years of free preschool all American children will be entitled to -- extending the one year they currently now get to three. That is going to be welcomed by American families, because that is going to save working moms and dads thousands of dollars of child care costs. Democrats want to make the largest investment in early child care and education in all of American history, to help parents get back to work. A full 70 percent of voters -- including a majority of Republican voters -- think this is precisely what Congress should do now. Republican politicians, however, not only want to invest zero in America's children, they're trying to scare everyone into thinking two free years of preschool and caps on child care costs are somehow bad things. You know what I say? Good luck selling that, Mitch."



A shot across Manchin's bow

That's a particularly apt metaphor, since Manchin lives (while he's in Washington) on an expensive houseboat/yacht.

"If Congress doesn't pass the Build Back Better plan by the end of this month, the I.R.S. has said that January's Child Tax Credit checks -- $300 per child -- will not be able to go out. What this would mean, according to the experts, is that 9.9 million children would slip below the poverty line once again. That would happen next month. This has been the most successful program in American history to lift children up from food scarcity and poverty. It has already been proven to have dramatically decreased child poverty all over the country. We simply do not have the time for Senator Joe Manchin's dithering any more. We are now facing a hard deadline. Build Back Better needs to pass by December 28th or almost 10 million American children will be at risk of slipping back into poverty. The need for action is now. America's families can't wait."



You tell them, Dan!

Where oh where were all the "Republicans In Disarray" headlines? Your guess is as good as ours....

"Representative Dan Crenshaw, a Republican from Texas, had some rather harsh words for some members of his own party this week. While speaking to a gathering of conservatives, Crenshaw warned of 'grifters in our midst... in the conservative movement.' He accused them of spouting 'lie after lie after lie,' and in case anyone had any doubts about who he was referring to, he made it plain: 'everybody in the Freedom Caucus -- all of them.' He then told us what he really felt about the two types of Republicans in Washington: 'there's performance artists, [and then] there's legislators.' Performance artists, he warned: '...get all the attention. They're the ones you think are more conservative because they know how to say slogans real well. They know how to recite the lines that they know our voters want to hear.' Couldn't have put it better myself, Dan, so thanks for that!"



Fightin' words down in Georgia

This comes from a Georgia newspaper, we hasten to point out.

"We're certainly stocking up on popcorn to watch the upcoming fight between the Republican governor of Georgia and his Republican primary challenger. The only real ideological difference between these two is that one of them followed the law and refused to aid and abet Donald Trump's attempted voter fraud, and the other one thinks that Trump should have been anointed president no matter what Georgia voters had to say. This is going to be a bitter and vicious fight, we're sure. How do we know this? Because a veteran GOP strategist used the ultimate metaphor in Georgia politics to describe what is about to take place: '[General William Tecumseh] Sherman left more standing than this primary will.' Can't get much worse than that, in Georgia."



Grifters, Inc.

Grifters gotta grift... right?

"Donald Trump and his not-so-merry band of conmen have come up with another scheme to separate their followers from their money. They're launching a rightwing social media site... or at least they say they're going to... we'll see whether anything actually ever appears or not. From their past efforts in this sphere, it will probably launch and then close its doors within the same month. How is it doing so far? About par for the Trumpian course. The company is already under investigation by not just one but two federal agencies for stock manipulation and/or insider trading. Devin Nunes has announced he will immediately be quitting Congress to become the company's C.E.O., even though he has zero experience being the C.E.O. of anything and his most-relevant experience with social media was to unsuccessfully sue because he was annoyed at a fictional cow on Twitter ('Devin Nunes' Cow' won the day when the case was laughed out of court). And the company Trump merged with to launch the venture has a close ally of Brazil's president as its chief financial officer. So, like, what could possibly go wrong with this new social media venture?"




Chris Weigant blogs at: ChrisWeigant.com
Follow Chris on Twitter: ChrisWeigant
Full archives of FTP columns: FridayTalkingPoints.com

[flying rabbit]

1. K&R

[DemocraticPatriot]

2. Covid is the Republican disease, now, and this INFLATION is REPUBLICAN!

They and their followers have caused the inflation, through the supply problems which are caused by the continuing covid crisis-- which is the result of their refusals to vaccinate themselves.

They own it. President Joe Biden has done the best he could to shut down this virus-- but they have resisted taking 'the Trump vaccine'-- because they want the crisis to continue, if only to prevent President Biden from solving this crisis.

Republicans OWN the worst things that are happening in this country now. They have proven themselves to be utterly unfit to govern at any level of government-- from the White House all the way down to township trustee...


LET'S GO JOE!!!!