Denmark and Norway Predict Drastic Spike in Omicron Cases

[Nevilledog]

Link to tweet

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/13/health/omicron-cases-denmark-norway.html?smid=tw-share

No paywall
https://archive.ph/0a8V2

*snip*

In the report released on Monday by the Statens Serum Institute in Copenhagen, researchers estimated that Omicron cases in Denmark were doubling every two days. Omicron is spreading much faster than Delta, which means that the new variant will become dominant by midweek, the report found.

Three-quarters of the Omicron cases are in people who have received two vaccine doses, which is about the same fraction of the entire country that’s fully vaccinated. That high percentage indicates that vaccines are providing little protection from infection, though most scientists believe that the shots will still fend off severe disease and death.

The Danish data are consistent with a smaller report of Omicron infections in the United States. Out of 43 documented cases, 34 — or about 79 percent — were people who were fully vaccinated.

“This thing can spread, and it can spread whether or not you were vaccinated,” Christina Ramirez, a biostatistician at the University of California, Los Angeles, said.

In England, researchers also found that full vaccination provided low protection against a breakthrough infection. But they found that booster shots restored defenses to much higher levels.

*snip*

[cadoman]

1. "...though most scientists believe that the shots will still fend off severe disease and death."

That's all I needed to hear.

Don't see what the point of all the alarm is. All indications so far are that the vaccines are extremely safe and effective against Omicron. It's the unvaccinated who should worry.

[Pachamama]

3. Read the article carefully

Booster is vital and cases increasing so quickly that even IF Omicron has less severity than Delta, it will still lead to hospitals and healthcare systems being overwhelmed.

This is a big deal.

[Dorian Gray]

5. It's a big deal

yes, but if you are vaccinated and not of compromised health you don't need to panic.

You may test positive, but full vaccination wards of severe disease and death.

Wear a mask in public places, get boosted if you haven't already, and utilize testing. Daily rapid at home testing when seeing people is a smart addition to safety protocols (if you aren't already utilizing it).

[LisaL]

9. A lot of people are of compromised health.

We also have many overweight individuals in the US.

[Dorian Gray]

12. I'm aware

I think that those people should be boosted. If they've chosen not to, they aren't panicking. If they've chosen to, they shouldn't panic. THey'll do okay with this if they get it. And there soon will be more tools with antivirals available to the public. Inciting PANIC is not going to help anybody.

If they take precautions, get vaxxed and boosted, wear a mask, and don't go to big parties, they'll most likely be totally fine. The risk will be similar to the risk of other common diseases/risks.

ETA: I am aware that in NY state we are at 10% omicron cases. I'm keeping abreast of all this. I am vaccinated. I am boosted. My child is vaccinated. My parents and in laws are all boosted. We all wear masks in public. And we will utilize rapid at home tests before we see each other on Christmas.

We have a handful of friends we see in person without masks. And we test all the time here.

Be smart. Use the tools at hand. And if you feel symptoms, test asap and contact your doctor! Especially if you're vulnerable.

[Takket]

2. "Number of cases" strikes fear but is not what we should care about

Severity of the case is what matters. If omicron isn’t killing people and is no worse than the flu we should be thrilled it is displacing horrible delta, not upset.

[muriel_volestrangler]

4. No-one has suggested omicron "is no worse than the flu", so why suggest it now?

No, you should not be "thrilled". If if doesn't kill as high a proportion of people as delta does, it still kills some, and since it spread quickly, it will infect many people before they've had a booster and the time for it to take effect.

[Takket]

6. Yes there have been many reports omicron causes mild illness

Since it was IDed in South Africa. There is no official analysis yet of how bad it is but in South Africa at least it appears there is a large increase in cases but not in deaths and hospitalization. This is actually a GOOD THING.

You can read about that here:

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/12/08/omicron-symptoms-cases-and-vaccine-evasion-what-we-know-now.html

If a mild variant that causes less death and hospitalization can displace a vicious one like delta, we want that to happen. Especially since half the country refuses to get vaccinated.

My flu comment was meant more to strike a hopeful tone that Omicron might be on the level of sickness caused by the flu. But no, we don’t know that for sure yet.

[janterry]

7. I think data from the UK will be very helpful for us

The population is similarly vaccinated (as here in the US) and their cases are also spiking. Perhaps Denmark and Norway will also serve as good data points.

But I remain focused on the UK. If their cases are also mild (as is true in S.A.) - this might, indeed, be 'good' news.

[muriel_volestrangler]

11. Note: nothing about flu in your link

No, this is not a "good thing", even if you shout it. It may be milder than delta, alpha etc. This does not mean "no worse than flu". There are good reasons England is doing this:

The NHS was put on a crisis footing tonight as hospitals in England were told to discharge as many patients as possible while estimated daily Omicron cases hit 200,000 and the variant claimed its first life in the UK.
...
In a letter to hospitals, NHS England chiefs said patients who could be discharged to care homes, hospices, their own homes or hotels before Christmas to free up beds, should be. The letter from NHS England’s chief executive, Amanda Pritchard, and medical director Prof Stephen Powis said the service was facing a level 4 “national incident”.

Hotels are already being turned into temporary care facilities staffed with workers flown in from Spain and Greece to relieve rising pressure on NHS hospital beds.

Hospitals and GPs have also been told to scale back normal services and limit care to those needing urgent attention so that NHS staff can be freed up to deliver boosters. Hospitals will undertake fewer non-urgent operations, but “highest clinical priority patients”, including people with cancer and those who have been waiting a long time, will be given priority.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/13/covid-nhs-in-crisis-mode-as-hospitals-told-to-discharge-patients-where-possible

[Tom Rinaldo]

8. Hospital collapses pose severe threat. If Omacron infects twice as many as Delta...

... the fact that it might be 25% less likely to lead to hospitalizations than did Delta would not prevent ICU overloads, and the cascading effect that would have on our health system for all those who might need hospital level care, which would increasingly be delayed or denied.

[LisaL]

10. A lot of people don't seem to get that point.

Yes, even if omicron is less lethal than delta, if it infects more people, the end results might not be good at all. We are already having overwhelmed hospitals. Add more patients needing care and it's not good at all.