I'd like to facilitate a respectful discussion of recent poll numbers

[EarlG]

Watching CNN just now, they reported some pretty bad news for Democrats in their latest poll. Here's the article:

CNN Poll: Most say government is doing too little to fix inflation and the supply chain

(snip)

All told, three-quarters say they are worried about the state of the economy in their own community (75%) and 63% say the nation's economy is in poor shape. Nearly 6 in 10 (57%) say that the economic news they've heard lately has been mostly bad, with just 19% saying they are hearing mostly good news about the economy right now.

Asked to rate the severity of seven issues affecting the economy recently, about 8 in 10 say the rising cost of food and other everyday items (80%), the disruption in the nation's supply chain (79%), and the rising cost of housing (77%) are major problems for the nation's economy. Seventy percent see the rising cost of gas as a major problem, and 67% each say labor shortages and government spending are major issues. A similar 65% call the coronavirus pandemic a major problem for the country's economy.

Few see President Joe Biden's policies as having a positive impact on economic conditions (30%), while nearly half (45%) say his policies have worsened the economy, and a quarter say they've had no impact. And 54% disapprove of the way he's handling the economy generally, up five points since late summer, with a matching 54% now disapproving of how he's handling helping the middle class.

The new poll finds roughly two-thirds (66%) have doubts and reservations about Biden's leadership, including 92% of Republicans, 75% of independents and 36% of Democrats. Still, Biden's overall approval holds about even at 49% approve to 51% disapprove. Those approval ratings are similar to recent polls from AP-NORC and Reuters/Ipsos.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/15/politics/cnn-poll-economy/index.html

I guess my question would be: if you think that something needs to be done to turn these numbers around, what advice would you give to Democratic leadership?

I suspect that quite a few folks here would like to talk about this topic, and I don't think there's any point putting our heads in the sand. I can't guarantee that this thread will be entirely respectful, but I thought that perhaps if I start the thread, you can at least discuss the issue at hand without focusing on the motives of the OP. (For the record, my motive is to allow people to have a respectful discussion of recent poll numbers.)

[True Dough]

1. Has anyone reported the OP, yet?

Good chance that he's a troll!



I'll need some more time to review the subject matter before offering my usual insightful analysis.

[ForgedCrank]

66. This is one of the reasons we suffer, I believe.

I sometimes read RW news, although at a much reduced pace. I want to see their claims and arguments, and I want to understand them. Most of the time they are obviously wrong, but sometimes they aren't. Yet none of that could ever be referenced here so we can better understand what could be done to move some of that support in our direction.
We (speaking in a very broad and general context) seem to be fixated strictly on demonizing the right as a core strategy. I'm not saying it isn't deserved, but it appears to be the primary political strategy among us. But we prohibit ourselves from openly discussing our own shortcomings, and in turn, ways to correct those or make policy more attractive to outliers. I believe the primary shortcoming is pushing the envelope too far and demanding hard lines on policy, and flat out refusal to compromise any ground whatsoever.
The trick to dominating is more broad acceptance. We will never convince people to vote Democratic by brow-beating them, calling them racist, telling them that they are stupid for not accepting promoted policies, or outright refusing to address their personal grievances. Think about how many times in real life you have managed to change someones political direction at all, let alone by insulting them (again, not speaking at you directly, I'm speaking in a general direction). As an example, pick the student loan forgiveness movement (just a random example on policy). Many are demanding this become law, outright nullification of all financial responsibility. Not all of us, but a certain segment of us. Those people who oppose know; this is an expensive endeavor, and someone has to pay. Those of the more fiscally conservative mind will flat out reject it, even if they are a primarily Democratic voter. So instead of telling them to shut up and get on board, policy adjustments are in order so that more people are covered in the arena of agreement. But we've stopped allowing that because of an all or nothing approach. This costs us dearly, and we aren't really allowed to speak in this tone so this problem can be addressed. Hell, right now I'm worried that I'll draw an alert for even addressing such a notion here. And THAT is a problem for us all.
We may not like this fact of life, but it's right there in our faces for us to deal with. Pretending it's not there won't help us in the slightest. We know that if you adjust policy for the purposes of broader acceptance, the scope of the policy grows smaller for every group that is satisfied. But that small policy is something that can be voted on and passed.
It is the extremes that hurt us. We live in a world with other people, half of them disagree with us, and a lot of those even hate us. We may despise them in turn, but they aren't going away, and there is absolutely nothing we can do about them being here. All we CAN do is start trying to compromise enough to gain those larger majorities. There is no other viable path, and we really do need to start being more open to discussing those options among ourselves.

[montanacowboy]

2. I saw that this morning and in utter disbelief

What the frigging hell are the American people thinking? Biden and the Dems are underwater in every single poll.
What - do they want the orange freak back along with his jack booted thugs to give them some kind of goddam republican utopia?

And even those on the panel who I feel are Dem leaning were piling on. If this is what we have until election day we are in deep shit.

[jimfields33]

20. Every American is affected by the grocery store prices.

That is 90 percent of the reason for the poll numbers in my opinion. The president spoke with the gas companies and prices did go down some. I think he needs to speak with the grocery stores now. If prices don’t go down by summer. I don’t want to think about mid term results.

[mcar]

46. The media is telling them what to think

as per one of the poll questions.

[BeckyDem]

3. The poll numbers would not be what they are if Dems passed BBB.

Both bills, infrastructure, and the safety net bill.

We all know why that has become difficult, and we must be honest with the public as to who is responsible for the delays and how we will remedy them.

That said, we also need to make abundantly clear that despite Dems difficulty within our ranks, it is important to show the American people that NOT ONE Republican will support BBB. Life will continue as it has been, dire and without hope for working people..per their own agenda.

Honestly, I could tell you all the things I disagree with about the Biden administration, but I don't find that helps most of the time.

When people see light at the end of the tunnel, they are more patient, imho.


Good thread, EarlG...thanks.

[SunImp]

17. 1+

[Nixie]

67. The opposite is true. Taking too long delivering progress passing infrastructure

is what the tanking poll numbers are about. Remember that half a dozen blue districts in blue states are not America. That is the reality and it’s also reflected in recent election results, which are time to heed.

People voted for reasonable experienced people running government and it was about time to deliver something to them in the infrastructure bill. That should never have been delayed and fought over by blue district people who are unrealistic. People didn’t vote for that.

Edit:there are real jobs in that infrastructure. I’ve seen them up close and it was totally damaging holding that hostage with the visuals of Democrats fighting.

[RAB910]

4. I think the key is apperance

Biden and the Dems need to take on this ugly topic. They need to do all in their power to address this issue (while putting the blame where it belongs on Trump). I think the biggest mistake to date is not talking enough about inflation. By not doing that, you allowing the GOP/right-wing propaganda machine to control the narrative

[Haggard Celine]

5. The prices are the main thing,

and it's pissing them off. The gas is one thing, but I think they're pissed about the food and rent most of all. And the extra money that's been going toward the food stamp program runs out this month. Starting next month, people will just get whatever the state decides to give, no extra federal money. That's going to hurt. Big banks have been buying up housing and jacking up rents, too, and that's outrageous. People were already paying too much. Congress had better get a deal going to expand the SNAP program to cover more people and load more money into it, and I don't know what they can do about rents, but some kind of creative solution needs to be employed there. People are hurting.

[iemanja]

39. Both Mpls and St Paul recently voted in rent control

I hope that helps things here.

[Haggard Celine]

40. Glad to hear that!

I guess it has to be done locally, like that. It's a nationwide problem, though. I'm glad I have a mortgage, so it is staying the same, but people paying rent are having an awful time. Don't know how they manage to raise a family and work two jobs and pay for daycare. It looks impossible to me.

[Amishman]

59. I think you are right

If BBB won't pass, perhaps try a smaller bill with just direct aid to working families. Extending the child tax credit and food stamp money. Rent assistance.

Show the voters that the government really is here to help

[gab13by13]

6. My opinion,

this has been a concerted right wing effort to hurt president Biden. I don't believe the poll numbers, I don't believe the narrative in the MSM and on social media. The right controls and manages the MSM and it has been pushing the narrative for the past 2 months that president Biden is failing, I call bs on that narrative.

99% of people on DU have been programmed to believe a fence is a wall, propaganda works.

JMHO.

[forthemiddle]

65. Did you believe them when Trump was President?

TFG had the same, and worse poll numbers, did you believe them then?
I assume you did, and guess what, the Republicans lost during the mid terms, and the Presidential election, so we had better pay attention now.
This isn't one outlier poll, this is becoming a trend.

[Yorkie Mom]

7. Address the issues that many people (not extreme left or right) care about.

Rising crime rates - People want to feel secure in their home and town/city.

Immigration -We can't have completely open borders and be a country. (I'm not saying we do, but perception matters.)

[RAB910]

9. One can tie immigration to inflation

the more Immigrants mean more people in the labor force which will keep salaries from skyrocketing

[iemanja]

52. Most Americans aren't worried about increases in wages

Except for the lack of them. The problem is prices.

[Elessar Zappa]

12. The way to address

rising crime rates is to make life better for everyone. That’s the only thing that’s proven to work. Any other “solution” (increased policing, more jails, harsher sentences) is just pissing in the wind.

[Yorkie Mom]

30. It certainly doesn't help having a slogan of "defund the police".

That was stupid.

[leftstreet]

31. What politician campaigned on "defund the police?"

Wow, I hadn't heard that

[Yorkie Mom]

35. I didn't say any Democrat campaigned using the slogan, but

it has certainly been used against us.

[Yorkie Mom]

32. I'll add another: Have a serious discussion about the origins of Covid without

being called a racist.

[catsudon]

69. well

i always maintain it came from china. and i will stick by the original chinese name of covid when I'm speaking/typing in chinese, which would be 'Wuhan Penumonia' (which is also currently in use in MANY asian media market)

no one could say i'm racist... at best the ccp sympathizers call me a banana.

[Roxi]

8. From my own Twitter timeline...

I’m seeing a lot of frustration over student loan debt and the loss of the Child Tax Credit payments.

It’s a double whammy for struggling families. No more tax credits plus the resumption of student loan payments, all hitting right after the holidays.

People are angry. Democrats are supposed to be helping families, and this is being seen as a massive failure on Biden’s part.

There’s a lot of chatter saying Biden could sign an executive order and forgive all federal student debt. I don’t know if that’s true or not, but I’m sure that statement is going to start being posted everywhere as we get closer to January, when payments start coming out of people’s checking accounts.

I don’t have a solution in mind. I’m merely reporting what I’ve been seeing in my limited experience on Twitter right now.

I really hope something changes soon. I do not want us to lose any more elections.

[maxsolomon]

50. It is NOT true that he could sign an EO and forgive trillions in debt.

The Idealistic Left blaming Biden for the GQP's bad faith obstruction is simply mind-boggling.

[Tomconroy]

10. I know everyone hates Chuck Todd but a long time ago he

said the Biden administration's success depended on Covid. I think he's right.

[ShazamIam]

11. It isn't that hard, the polling and news are now coordinated, they run a week or two of steady Biden

and Democratic attacks, then poll on the talking points they have been spewing.

[world wide wally]

13. Thanks, Manchin

[kentuck]

14. Hopefully it is a temporary problem...

Luckily, wages are up and the economic situation is much better than it was a year ago.

Unfortunately, the Republicans are very good blaming others for any bad news.

The polls probably should not be taken too seriously at this time. If the inflation is still high and the economy slumps in the early spring, then there may be cause for concern.

Too early to put much faith in the poll numbers at this time, in my opinion.

[NewHendoLib]

15. Hi EarlG - and all! - thanks for starting this important discussion.

Here's the thing with polling these days - it is simply a reflection of what many voters (who are not as deeply involved with politics) are told - either by the media, their churches, their friends - and the politicians who are so skilled at using/understanding the mechanism of propaganda.

Main example to illustrate this - TFG and his minions repeatedly cry "the election was stolen - there was massive voter fraud". The false equivalence (or outright right wing controlled) media plays these lies again and again and again and they become embedded.

Then polling happens - and of course the responses exactly mirror the message that they were repeatedly exposed to.

To simplify - TFG "the election was stolen" again and again. Media keeps playing it. Voters are asked "was the election stolen" by pollsters - and of course they say yes - then TFG says "I told you the election was stollen - the polls prove it".

Take the above example and replay it again and again with all of the various issues around the economy, COVID, you name it. Due to propaganda and immersion of so many into it, polling answers will directly reflect what those polled are told.

As to what we can do about it - that is very difficult, because the right wing has a huge advantage in print, radio and TV media. People like us here at DU delve far more deeply into politics than most Americans - who are happy to be told what to believe and what to think.

Without some equalization of the media playing field, it is hard to see this improving. Most of the issues EarlG mentioned as poling results are not black and white, simple issues - they are nuanced and need depth to fully explain. This is what Democrats try to do - explain, but it works against us because most people want simple memes.

I simply don't know how Democrats can do effective messaging that reaches the people they need to under the current media climate, and polarization of the country. For many, "owning the libs" drives their lives, their acts - even to the point of suicide (the no-vax types) or murder (the right wing politicians supporting not vaxxing).

I will end with a few of what I think are important links to further play out where we are - both are NYT and probably paywalled - but they are important so I am putting the links here.

This is to a book that explains what our future may be as a species https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/09/books/review/a-natural-history-of-the-future-rob-dunn.html

This is an Op Ed that talks about the state of our Democracy in light of the polarization https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/15/opinion/republicans-democracy-minority-rule.html

[AncientAndy]

48. "Here's the thing with polling these days - it is simply a reflection of what many voters are told"

So how did polling work in the past? What did they used to reflect?

[NewHendoLib]

54. There is a far greater effort to push right wing messaging in a well

Funded, coordinated fashion.

[Patton French]

16. The inflation is real and the causes are multifaceted.

As far as addressing it, BBB is a great starting point.

[Yoyoyo77]

18. Yet, recent polls including this one show Joe's poll #s up from the low 40s to currently @ 48/49.

[BeckyDem]

19. There's that elephant in the room too. Just sayin'.

Link to tweet

[WarGamer]

21. I don't think much can be done.

POTUS gets the blame or credit for the economy no matter what.

Here's what the POTUS and Congress CAN DO:

Things that HELP people, like another freeze of Student Loans, Another $1800 stimulus, increasing SS benefits and NOT 2% a year.

[leftstreet]

26. +1

They have to act

Everyone's done REACTING to Trump

The Democrats have majorities and executive ink pens

They have to act

[ProfessorGAC]

23. I Have Serious Questions About The Veracity

Quite frankly, there are percentages of people "concerned" that I believe exceed the % of people aware of any issues.
79% of people polled are concerned about "disruptions in the supply chain"? I have a hard time believing 79% of people know what a supply chain is.
And, I don't believe the 67% concerned with government spending. That's basically 100% of all Rs & indies.
Same with 67% with concerns about "labor shortages". Same reason. I doubt 67% of all people are aware of any labor shortages.
I am choosing to consider these results highly suspect.

[Hortensis]

68. I have serious questions about the questions and the polling

industry whose product is used in media narratives every week only to be proven bogus when the actual numbers come in. Is it likely the RW powers would have achieved domination of the mainstream press and neglected the polling industry?

[Hekate]

24. Thank you, EarlG

I will return to read with interest

[uponit7771]

25. Better message mechanics by the DNC, our current mechanics is inadequate and we can flood mediums

... with messages that the GQP use all of the time especially in Communities of Color (mentioned in 2020 post mortem(s) ) that don't hear from the DNC until election time.

The economy isn't a decent one sans inflation and we need the will to beat the GQP at message mechanics ... period

[Act_of_Reparation]

27. We can't rely on the general populace having a nuanced view of the issues.

People see problems, they blame the people in charge. I think if we want to turn these numbers around, we're going to have to produce something tangible. Beyond that, I dunno. It's above my pay grade.

[Tickle]

28. You go forgot to

mention that CNN project interest rates are going up. I’m done with CNN they suck

[WhiskeyGrinder]

29. Eliminate student debt, resume stimulus payments and extend the eviction moratorium.

[maxsolomon]

51. How would you eliminate student debt?

What is the mechanism? Does it involve Congress?

https://www.savingforcollege.com/article/whats-the-current-state-of-student-loan-forgiveness

[pwb]

34. That may change when people get their 5.9% cost of living increase?

Those that get one.

[iemanja]

37. Who is getting that?

Certainly not me.

[pwb]

38. 70 million on Social Security, Federal workers, state workers, Veterans?

https://www.ssa.gov/news/cola/

[iemanja]

36. I suppose freezing prices is out of the question?

[madinmaryland]

41. Didn't Nixon try that in the 1970's? And then there was Gerald Ford and...

“WIN”. Whip Inflation Now. That turned out really well.

[traitorsgalore]

42. Price-fixing/gouging corporations own the U.S., we the people are 2nd class nobodies

It's the same reason why traitors like Trump don't get arrested.

Biden could do a lot of things, even if symbolic. One, he could declare a war on corruption and put a price freeze into effect while setting up a panel to break up monopolies. Two, he could publicly present the Georgia phone call of Trump trying to rig Georgia's election and insist something be done about it. 3, which he's already started to do, is warn Wall St speculators about rigging markets such as crude oil. 4, insist that raising the min wage to $15 isn't some progressive dream, it's something essential for our national security. 5, get the John Lewis voting rights act passed. 6, explain why the U.S. spends $700 billion a year on the military when we all know it's complete BS.

In short, Biden needs to start acting like a progressive. Progressives are the only Ds that stand a chance in any election going forward because progressive policies are actually centrist policies as most of them are supported by greater than70% of the population.

[JanMichael]

43. Housing prices are not in the universe of 1 year Presidential powers.

Sure the Fed can raise rates making mortgages more expensive, thus restricting buyers, but if everyone would think for a minute - for almost 4/5 years after the 2007 crash new construction was almost dead in most places. Permit offices in cities (one of which I worked) had to let people go. In fact starter homes still aren't built where I live in NC.

The population goes up but the housing stock was stuck for half a decade.

[boston bean]

44. Democrats are demoralized.

[radius777]

45. Illegal immigration, supply chain/inflation, voting rights, Afghanistan, covid, crime.

Biden's poll numbers started tanking when he/Mayorkas started lifting the restrictions at the border, which then acted as a magnet for more people to come. Mass immigration is not popular with any voting bloc, even Latinos, who then have to compete with the new arrivals for housing and jobs. In fact Trump did better with Latinos and Black male voters than Republicans typically do, possibly due to his hard stance on the border.

Voting Rights and Policing Reform. Many PoC and others are very disappointed that Dems/Biden are not going to the mat for voting rights while the GOP runs their suppression game all over the country.

Supply chain/inflation/gas prices. It's the economy stupid as Big Dog told us. Voters will always blame who is in power and there is no way to get around this. Biden has to do more to solve these issues or Dems will pay.

Afghanistan. Alot of women voters and others felt the withdrawal was grossly mismanaged, and now the Taliban is control of the country.

Covid. People are just sick of covid and will blame whoever is in power if it is not solved. Biden is doing all he can, but the dummies won't take the vaccine. Hopefully the antiviral pills will be a gamechanger that will sharply lower hospitilization and deaths.

Crime. crime is up greatly in many major cities which are mostly controlled by Dems. Adams was elected in NYC in response, we'll see if he creates a new template that can balance racial/social justice with safety. Being a black man and former policeman he would have the best perspective.

[lame54]

47. Items are steadily coming back to grocery stores

[Kid Berwyn]

49. "Inflation" and "Supply Chain" are GOP framed astroturf issues.

Rupert Murdoch and his like minded corporate spawn want to talk about THAT and not the good that will result from Democratic policies, let alone and I do mean alone any mention of treason on the part of Drumpfellah.

[iemanja]

53. Every word is a GOP plot

We can't talk about problems in the supply chain because that's a GOP plot. We can't talking about spending bills because that's a GOP trope. What do you propose? Deny that anything is wrong with the economy? Pretend prices and rents aren't rising because you don't like the news?

No wonder we are tanking in the polls.

[Kid Berwyn]

61. I should have been more clear.

Not my fault, but the repuglians are good at framing.

The news media are right wing, corporate owned that largely repeat repuglian talking points.

I suggest (and have suggested for a long while) we use every opportunity to hold live hearings on TV and lambaste the repuglians by making them face — and answer for — the unfiltered truth about their treason on Jan. 6, their corruptions in office, their anti-American policies, and their direct ties to the Kremlin.

[iemanja]

62. While necessary

I don't think that will help poll numbers because it doesn't impact prices. People don't need the media to see that everything is more expensive.

[Kid Berwyn]

63. We should stop playing the repuglian's game.

They are the ones making inflation an issue.

Talking about it only serves their purposes.

[iemanja]

64. You don't get it

You keep telling yourself that. It will do no good.

[Kid Berwyn]

71. No, what I get is you want to talk about inflation.

Great. That draws attention away from the GOP policies which screw the 99%, let alone the treason.

[betsuni]

55. I give up, choose not to worry about it and assume a Republican Congress next election.

There will be constant negativity about the Democratic Party until then. Same drip drip drip. Republicans have occasional kind of big scandals that nobody pays attention to and Democrats get constant negativity.

Anti-Democratic propaganda aimed at the Right: inflation, bad economy, supply chain, government overreach, socialism, crime, the usual culture wars, some new immigration thing, conspiracy theories.

Aimed at the Left: imaginary promises broken, like student debt (BUT HE PROMISED is the new BUT HER EMAILS -- everyone will become seven years old and cry and say they hate Uncle Biden), they'll say that Democrats have full control of government and LOOK THEY DO NOTHING BOTH SIDES (requires inability to understand a 50-50 senate and how government works (I HATE UNCLE BIDEN)), the usual Democrats-aren't-progressive-because-they're-corrupt-elites bullshit. It's ironic that student debt has become a big thing because of attacks on Democrats for being over-educated out-of-touch elites who ignore the working class.

The U.S. will go limping along as usual. A large sized country with too many people who pay absolutely no attention and have no common sense.

[Brainfodder]

56. Same old BS brainwashing machines: FN/NM/Radio are operating?

They are fed a diet of Biden has dementia and is very feeble type BS and their go to is him falling going up stairs to Airforce One, that one time.

I ignore polls, so easily manipulated.

It's not our fault they won't change the channel, they need a huge ad buy to inform, but they are so far gone, they really think democrats are awful!

Just a political party, so ridiculous their behavior over nothing most of the time and against their own self interests, a lot of the time?

Believing in Drumpfus still is just:

[Philosophizing Fool]

57. Advice? Not this guy

What would I advise our politicians to do? Go out and speak with Independent and even Republicans voters. I speak with everyone and although Democratic voters are mainly enthusiastic about our party, other voters find Democratic leaders to be hypocrites and panderers. There is much bitterness and resentment with our leaders, in both parties. As has been said, hiding our heads will not help, but it is left to smarter folks than I to find solutions.

We will not win many elections if our politicians only get advice from D.C. and social media. It once was that one phone call was equal to one thousand unheard voices. I think many equate social media in the same way. This is a mistake, one that I fear too many of us are making.

[LeftInTX]

58. CNN is a right wing site

The Democrats are lazy

It's Manchin's fault

It's the media's fault

Polls are wrong

It's Hitler all over again

It's a civil war

This is BS

It's the squad's fault

It's the blue dog's fault

Fuck Bob Dole

Fuck Texas

Facebook has destroyed society

What do you expect from a society which puts Elon Musk on the front page as "man of the year"

It's a GOP plot

Polls would be good if Merrick Garland would arrest Trump

My brain isn't working.
But I also support a thoughtful discussion and it is often lacking.

I tend to think things aren't going to go too well for us. We have a hill to climb.
The president's party tends to get blamed for everything.
I wish I knew what to do about negative reactivity, but everyone wants a punching bag and it's usually POTUS.
I wish I had an answer.
I believe the poll. I don't think it is spin.

[Roisin Ni Fiachra]

60. Regulate and control the fossil fuel industry, so that they can't use their power

to manipulate the economy.

If they don't like what a POTUS is doing, they simply raise the cost of fuel, in order to make that POTUS as unpopular as they can.

The cost of most goods and services is directly proportional to the cost of transportation. The fossil fuel industry has way too much power, and they have the ways and means to eliminate anyone or anything that stands in their way. They are an immediate threat and clear and present danger to national security, and should be dealt with as such.

[dalton99a]

70. Price increases from bread to rent are hurting people. To ignore this is to deny reality.

I know someone who got evicted from a rental house because the landlord wanted to sell, and the person had a horrific time finding comparable housing. Ended up in a run-down trailer. This happened in a rural county. Evidently some private equity firm had discovered its potential appeal to retirees and foreign investors (the house and many others like it were purchased by a corporate entity).