Who believes it is a given that the Democrats will lose the mid-term elections next year?

[kentuck]

Perhaps I am naive, but I do not think so.

I understand that the minority Party almost always wins in the off-year elections but I do not believe this is a normal or average election year.

There are 30-35% of the voters that have no idea what is going on. They are part of a cult. They vote for their leader or they vote for whom their leader recommends. Some may not vote at all if their leader is not on the ballot? (But look at what they did in Virginia, you say. Does anyone think the Republicans will duplicate that race in every other race in the country?)

I have to believe that there are a small percentage of Republicans that can see the direction their Party is going and are very fearful for the future. However, that 'small percentage' could mean the difference in winning and losing the next election.

I do not believe the next election is an automatic loss for the Democrats.

[qazplm135]

1. Given? No

If the SC overturns Roe next summer that could be a game changer.

But are we on track to lose?

I think yes. At least the House.

[BlueCheeseAgain]

13. Great point.

There have been a few times when the political cycle (in which the opposition party wins the midterms) is momentarily broken, and this is usually when some external issue dominates:

1998: Public annoyance over impeachment of President Clinton leads to Dems making small gains.
2002: 9/11 attacks and impending war in Iraq dominates the news. GOP makes small gains in Congress.

A severe restriction on abortion rights could do the same thing this time.

[uponit7771]

30. +1, We should NO DOUBT use J6 like the GQP used 9/11 against us, we're missing that boat

[lastlib]

62. I think we should be using Jan 6th.....

...the way that shitbag Saxby Chambliss used 9/11 against Max Cleland.

If criminal evidence about Jan 6th comes out next year, I think it could upset the GQP applecart and possibly help us retain control of the House. Remember how GOPhers lost big in 1974 after the Nixon/Watergate scandals had broken.

[uponit7771]

63. Exactly !!!!

[Initech]

41. Yeah I saw there was a MAGA running in NC unchallenged.

And he's endorsed by the Boebert / Greene / Cawthorn shithead squadron. I suspect this guy isn't the only one.

[leftstreet]

2. Uh...is there a moratorium on post hides on this issue

[kentuck]

4. ??

Do you have a link?

[leftstreet]

7. lol no

Whenever I've mentioned the certain possibility of midterm loss I get my post hidden

but...it's probably just me

[spanone]

3. No. I remember the same was said about 2018

[we can do it]

5. Not me. We can and will prevail if we work.

[Lovie777]

6. Honestly, I think we keep both houses . ....

All this constant gloom and boom is bullshit, and I'm taking in the fact of GQP gerrymandering and voter suppression.

Plus the GQP are stone cold nuts.

[Mr.Bill]

47. We're doing a little

gerrymandering in California, too. Part of the reason Nunes resigned was due to changes in his district boundaries that would make it difficult for him to win. I think we can flip five seats here.

[PTWB]

8. It's not a given. A lot can happen in a year. But it doesn't look good.

Between obscene partisan gerrymandering after the 2020 census, traditional heavy midterm losses, COVID with no end in sight, the recent betrayal of Joe Biden by a "moderate" who will not be named, and many other factors... it is shaping up to be a very bad cycle next year.

Maybe we will get lucky and Trump will jump the gun, announce his 2024 candidacy early, and doing so will fire folks up to get out and vote against the GOP. Maybe there will be some national tragedy and Biden's leadership will bind the country together like never before. Maybe COVID will unexpectedly fade away, the economy will come roaring back, and Biden will get the credit.

Lots of things could change the course we're on. But what is the likelihood?

[Mad_Machine76]

36. What happens with Roe at SCOTUS

may play a factor, especially if SCOTUS flat out strikes down Roe, as many of them seem inclined to do (Roberts may talk them off the cliff and cobble together some "compromise" but things will still be worse for Reproductive rights no matter what happens).

[PTWB]

50. It's possible that Roe turns out to be a major motivator.

My gut tells me it will be a wash, though. If they overturn Roe there will be outrage but will that translate to success at the ballot box? I'm not so sure. We've known Roe was on the chopping block for many years and look how many people failed to turn out for Hillary in 2016. Now there is an argument to be made that folks' reaction to something being taken away will be stronger than their reaction to the threat of taking that thing away, but how much will that be offset by the religious right marketing their victory (if they do succeed in striking down Roe)?

Abortion rights will always be used as a wedge issue as long as the religious right remains a relevant political bloc. If they succeed in striking down Roe, they'll simply change their marketing materials and tell their voters to turn out because "Democrats want to bring abortion back."

I hope I'm wrong and that losing Roe is the catalyst for a seismic political shift to the left.

[applegrove]

9. I'm with you. Democrats need to unpack BBB and sell it. Americans

like the individual policies in BBB from 52% to 68% on the promises in it. Take a month for each major thing and publicize it. Sell sell sell.

[bucolic_frolic]

10. We are being out worked

and we would have lost 2020 except for TFG as a lightning rod. We're being talked into a corner over buzz words we don't choose: mandates & freedom. We fared below expectations in the House and Senate in 2020, in VA and NJ in 2021, and locally all the time. We do not have the social media and community/family network connections to match the opposition. Outside cities, they are a phalanx. We text and phone bank. Our county party HQ's need more manpower.

But on the bright side, we are having this conversation now. GOP always overplays their hand, and they will be mean and nasty, and irritate our base more than their own. We will run nice people who don't energize millennials or progressives.

Don't count me optimistic.

[BlueCheeseAgain]

11. I'm a little more fatalistic than most.

To me, the cycle of American politics is almost depressingly predictable.

Year 0: President of a new party takes office, usually with majorities in Congress.
Year 2: Voters of other party are more energized and angry, and throw incumbent party out of office.
Year 4: President, running against opposition Congress, wins re-election.
Year 6: Voters of other party are more energized and angry, and throw/keep incumbent party out of office.

Repeat.

So I've taken it as a given almost since the inauguration that Democrats have two years to get anything done, before the Republicans take over. I thought maybe the attempted coup would be enough to jolt the dynamic, but it doesn't seem to be the case.

Another problem with the cycle is that every time there's a wave election (2006, 2010, 2014, 2018), the seats that change hands are in swing districts. And so it's always moderates that lose their seats. And this allows the party extremists to claim that being moderate loses elections, and we have to be more extreme to win.

[Mad_Machine76]

37. I hear you

but I don't think the full impact of 1/6 has been felt yet, especially if some sitting members of Congress are directly implicated in the planning and/or facilitation of what happened. And the evidence of that is starting to mount, albeit slowly. That and the possible fall of Roe may change these dynamics.

I would also say that George W. Bush is an example of a President who did NOT have a disastrous midterms, mainly because of 9/11. Republicans held the House and reclaimed the Senate in the 2002 midterms and held on to a trifecta all the way through to 2006 (nearly 6 years, not counting the Democrats very briefly controlling the Senate in 2002 because of a Republican defection). He only had an opposition Congress for 2 years of his 8 years in office and, by that point, he was largely disgraced.

[mcar]

12. Not I

a lot can happen in the next 6-8 months. We have good chances for some Dem Senate pickups and the Rs are going to be running the craziest of the cultists because that's who will get through their primaries.

[Bleacher Creature]

14. Yes, because of re-districting.

I read an analysis earlier in the year that was pretty confident that Republicans can flip enough seats just by re-districting, even without unseating a Democratic incumbent. If that's the case, Democrats will need to unseat about 10 Republicans just to hold the House.

[joshcryer]

16. Yep. It'll be a route.

Democrats have to bring out 10% more voters just to tie with them due to their shenanigans.

[Fiendish Thingy]

15. Without passing voting rights, the house is gone for sure.

Dems lose 5 seats in FL alone through gerrymandering before a single vote is cast.

The senate is less clear- both Kelly and Warnock are at risk, since both AZ and GA have passed laws allowing the legislature to reject election outcomes they don’t like. This means Dems would have to pick up 4 seats to make Manchin and Sinema irrelevant.

[Mad_Machine76]

38. Odds that the courts would uphold such an electoral outcome?

[Silent3]

17. As it's shaping up, I don't see us havin anywhere near the accomplishments we'll need to overcome...

...the usual swing of control, which is a challenge even when things are going well.

The public blames the incumbent party and doesn't think deep than that. At best inflation, inflation will settle down and COVID might finally wane, but that's closest to good news I see on the way. I see no election reform and no major accomplishments to impress and please the American people coming up and fully sinking in before next November.

[moondust]

18. Agree.

The only other time the GQP has not even had a platform was 2020 when they lost all three branches. Why would anybody but particularly younger voters looking to the future vote for a party that won't reveal what it will do if elected? That may be enough for some racists and some tax cutters but not that many.

The old patterns no longer apply in the age of the GQP cult no matter how much corporate media repeats them.

[madville]

19. If I had to predict today

I think we will lose around 20 seats in the House, giving the Republicans around a 235-200 majority.

The Senate is a coin flip, it could be 53-47 Republican, it could be 52-48 Democratic, etc. We may lose the GA and NV seats, so if just AZ or PA go R then they are at 53-47.

[inwiththenew]

20. Honestly, if the economy isn't sorted out then all that other stuff won't matter

If we still have issues with inflation and the supply chain then it's not going to go well. The economic stuff is in people's faces everyday. If we don't have an answer for them, and soon, it's going to go badly.

[PufPuf23]

21. Both the House and the Senate are in play in the next Midterms and

I expect we will build majorities in both sides of Congress.

But have seen items even here at DU that the Dems have already lost 2022 in a foregone conclusion.

This looks like propaganda to suppress Democratic effort and vote.

Corporate MSM more or less sucks and wants the Dems to lose Congress.

That is plenty reason in itself to fight like hell for sanity.

[Polybius]

58. Be honest:

What was you prediction for Virginia last month?

[PufPuf23]

59. Thought McAuliffe would beat Youngkin for Governor and was

disappointed.

At present, find it most reasonable to keep a positive attitude and keep personal despair private.

Don't want to add to the general chaos and what appears to me engineered divide and conquer of most people who just want to get by and be generally happy, comfortable, and not alone.

I don't know solutions.

[Polybius]

60. Thank you for that

November is so far away that I think I'll stop making predictions for now. So much can happen by then.

[Hoyt]

22. Not over yet. And in some states, redistricting is actually favoring Democrats.

[Hortensis]

23. Our biggest advantage, aside from over half the people reliably voting Democratic

of course, is the Republican Party. And they're in trouble a whole bunch of ways.

I think it's possible that all by themselves they'll finally be scaring more feckless wonders and malcontents off their fingers than they can draw.

But in any case, we've never been here before, so I'm not just assuming past patterns will prevail again.

Heck, the global spread of ankle-gnawing craziness has even caused me to wonder if people could be self destructing in some modern version of a species die-off. Could nature be concerned that homo sapiens has had it too good too long for its own good and needs a shake-up?

But that's just my own anxious wondering. If more become aware of danger, likely somewhat more of those would run to the security and ways they've always known, away from the fire rather than into it. Although, of course, most would seek that safety with the nearest crowd.

[budkin]

24. Normally I'd say yes but I think Roe being overturned might be a game changer

Seriously. Let's see what happens in June.

[Polybius]

57. What if it's partially overturned?

Like 15 week ban allowed?

[budkin]

64. Same difference

It goes directly against Roe.

[Polybius]

65. I'd like to see a poll on this

Do most people oppose a 15 week ban?

[Mme. Defarge]

25. Non!

Pas moi.

[Johonny]

26. traditionally the presidents party loses in the mid-term

But these aren't normal times. The GOP is likely to lose another round of voters this winter while cheering their deaths. We've never seen anything like that. Meanwhile Manchin is determined to make sure his party has little to run on policy wise. Then there's the Trump factor. Trump drives up turnout on both sides.

[LeftInTX]

29. I recently calculated that the GOP has lost only .1% of their voting base at the max

This .1% includes:
People who are not registered to vote
People too old to vote
Democrats

The .1% was based on deaths in GOP states, so it also includes blue areas.

This is not going to affect any election.

If it did, the GOP would be fighting Covid tooth and nail.

[LeftInTX]

27. The "odds" are in Republicans' favor

We also have too many Dems who are leaving (boo...I really hate that...many in "purple" seats.. Rep Murphy of Florida just announced she won't seek re-election) I don't mind safe Dems retiring, but we've got Dems who recently flipped seats who are getting out.
Redistricting is in Republicans favor.
We only hold a very small majority in the House right now.

[Wounded Bear]

28. I have to believe we have a decent shot at holding Congress...

and perhaps even increasing our leads.

[viva la]

31. I think the Dems might gain a bit

Wishful thinking..
I just can't believe Americans will reward the treason Trump party.

Sigh.

[Xolodno]

32. It's not a 100% lock that we lose.

Probable? Yes.

With that said, there are a few things that could turn the tide.

1. Court decision on Roe v. Wade.
2. If no Student Loan relief bill is passed, Biden goes ahead and forgives the first 10k. This might bring enough disaffected voters back.
3. COVID finally goes down or mutates into something like the flu.
4. This is morbid, but COVID kills off enough GOP voters.
5. Republicans kick their own gonads by saying they will target reductions in Social Security and with Boomers retired or retiring early, that would backfire.

[GoCubsGo]

33. I don't.

People are not paying attention now, because of the holidays. But, a lot shit is going to start hitting the fan in the next few months that isn't going to bode well for the GOP. Not to mention that they're killing off their own voters with their vaccine and anti-mask conspiracies...

[CrackityJones75]

34. This is bullshit.

These types of posts need to be removed. It is absolute bullshit posting a thread asking (even if thinly ceiled) for people to predict doom and gloom about the upcoming election.

This is horseshit.

[demmiblue]

42. Lol! n/t

[Nixie]

54. So the big line now is doomsday because BIF didn't get

held up?? Lol what? Really?

[Polybius]

56. Ya know what's worse? Posts guaranteeing that we'll win.

The insane overconfidence in Virginia the final week of the election was maddening. I took a beating for saying we'd lose by 5 points, because the writing was on the wall. Over-confidence leads some to stay home. Fear gets them out.

[Mad_Machine76]

35. It's a definite possibility

but I refuse to believe it is an inevitability. Obviously, Republican voter suppression and gerrymandering is going to make it harder for would-be Democratic voters but that only helps if you have live voters. By indulging their base's resistance to getting vaxxed for COVID and basically enabling them in such a way that makes it more likely for them to get COVID and die (or become disabled), they may be nullifying their own advantage. We need to keep our side energized to come out to vote in numbers more akin to a Presidential year so that the Republicans can't come along and shut down the 1/6 investigation, shut down judicial and cabinet nominations, etc.

[Demsrule86]

39. I agree with you...we need to fight hard and show up.

[Rizen]

40. If the elections were today we absolutely would.

And Joe Manchin would be the keystone of that development. We have to pass legislation and turn the economy around as well as effectively combat new Covid variants. If we don't pass the build back better bill we're all screwed.

[Progressive Jones]

43. Not me. And, I'm fed up to here with people fretting over this. nt

[WhiskeyGrinder]

44. If student debt payments and evictions resume, the Medicare hikes go into effect, and stimulus

payments aren't revisited in the upcoming omicron wave, then yes, it is.

[Poiuyt]

45. I think we lose the House but pick up seats in the Senate

Gerrymandering will hurt us in the House

[ecstatic]

46. If the messaging doesn't improve, yes.

Nobody knows what Build Back Better and all these various bills are. I think some in our party think that passing it alone is enough when it's not. We have to simultaneously brag about our accomplishments while also shaming repubs. It should be embarrassing to be associated with republicans right now, but they're still walking around proudly because our messaging sucks.

[Gidney N Cloyd]

48. Haven't we done well in recent-ish special elections? I'd think that'd be one indicator.

I think we have to work our tails off this coming year. We always do. But mainly I think there are too many unusual influences this time pushing outcomes this way and that. It's just too tough to predict with the kind of 'conventional beltway wisdom' the pundit class likes to parrot.

[In It to Win It]

49. Not a given loss but we have to work to earn people's vote. Infrastructure isn't enough

We have to give people a healthy diet of things to vote for and things to vote against.

[GoodRaisin]

51. I think it's more of an M$M talking point than anything.

I think we’re going to see historical mid term voter turnout on both sides and so, no, not a given.

[Polybius]

52. I think it's virtually certain that we lose the House

The Senate is more in our favor, so at best we can pick up two seats. At worst we lost 1 or 2.

Presidents usually get re-elected, so 2020 was supposed to be a Republican year, just like 1988 was supposed to be a Democratic year. Well, because of extraordinary circumstances (Bush on Reagan's coattails in 1988, and Trump being horribly unpopular in 2020), the Party that was supposed to win was skipped. Four years later in 1992, Bush lost because it was supposed the be Democrats winning in 1988. That's why I'm frightened for 2024, since 2020 was supposed to be a Republican cycle.

[Tommymac]

53. Not me. We will need to work very hard on the Ground. GOTV starts NOW

Not a given. But if we all get out and start educating our friends and neighbors NOW we can overcome the doom and gloom disinformation the majority of the M$M is fostering upon us.

Word of mouth works. But it IS expensive to run a Ground Game. And a lot of hard work.

So please, if you able and motivated to help out, find a local candidate you can support and get to work!

[WarGamer]

55. No. Still too far away.

Lots of things can happen.

But history isn't kind in off-year elections and there are a handful of aggravating circumstances for 22 that will make it tough.

[Generic Brad]

61. Republicans will be too toxic to support by then

Drip. Drip. Drip. The floodgates are about to open on the gang that couldn’t insurrect straight.