malaise....you might want to DUCK!

[Lochloosa]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/refresh/AL1812W5_NL+gif/203623W5_NL_sm.gif

000
WTNT43 KNHC 231445
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE STORM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED...WITH A LARGE CURVED BAND FEATURE EVIDENT OVER THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. USING A BLEND OF
SFMR AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTERS...THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET TO 45 KT. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL
DEFINED OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CYCLONE BUT IS RESTRICTED TO
THE NORTHWEST. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND HIGH OCEANIC
HEAT CONTENT...SANDY IS LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE IN 12
TO 24 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE. THE INTERACTION OF THE
CIRCULATION OF SANDY WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EASTERN CUBA
SHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING. AFTERWARDS...THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASING TO NEAR 30 KT WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT RE-INTENSIFICATION. AROUND DAY 5...THE GFS OUTPUT SUGGESTS
THAT SANDY WILL BE DERIVING ENERGY FROM BAROCLINIC SOURCES...AND
THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM AS POST-TROPICAL BY THAT TIME.

FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT SHOW A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION...OR ABOUT
020/4. AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF SANDY GRADUALLY
WEAKENS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO
NORTHWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. IN AROUND 2-3
DAYS...THE TRACK COULD BEND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO THE WEST OF SANDY. THIS
IS SHOWN MOST PROMINENTLY IN THE 0600 UTC GFS RUN...WHICH HAS
SHIFTED WESTWARD FROM ITS PREVIOUS SOLUTION. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS NUDGED WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE 48 TO 72
HOUR TIME FRAME. THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL TRACK
MODEL CONSENSUS...AND ALSO SIMILAR TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE
PREDICTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 13.8N 77.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 14.9N 77.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 16.9N 77.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 18.9N 77.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 21.4N 76.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...ON NORTH COAST OF CUBA
72H 26/1200Z 25.6N 76.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 28.5N 74.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 31.0N 70.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[teddy51]

1. I was just reading that on raw story! Stay safe Malaise!

[malaise]

8. Thanks

[Scurrilous]

2. Wow.

A direct hit!

[malaise]

9. Yep that's what we're expecting

Strange storm - coming from below us - a very rare event.

[countryjake]

3. Yes, time for Jamaica to batten down the hatches!

Stay safe, malaise

[malaise]

7. Thanks

We're just waiting for whatever

[pinboy3niner]

4. Malaise posted about it earlier, said she's well-prepared

Look for news of Bill and Hillary, though, who were scheduled to be in northern Haiti today to inaugurate an industrial park there (along with Sean Penn, Ben Stiller and supermodel Petra Nemacova).

[malaise]

6. They did it yesterday _ saw coverage on local news

[malaise]

5. LOL

Yep we're getting ready for a hit - should be a Cat1. We're more worried about the water.
Another worry is uncertainty - I'm not 100% sure but I can't remember a hurricane ever hitting Jamaica from South to North let alone NNE. We're searching our hurricane history to find out.
This will be bad for the persons close to the coast in Clarendon, St Catherine, Kingston and Port Royal - add the airport to that.
The sad truth is that we suffer some inconvenience but it is our poor and vulnerable who lose their lives and watch the little they have destroyed.


It's been raining all day and we know it's going to get worse before it gets better.
Traffic was hell today as everyone was on the road getting ready for the storm and offices were closing early. No work tomorrow - we've shut down the island and several flights are cancelled.

Strange though - no lightning or thunder so far.

Hopefully we'll have power right through the storm.

Thanks for your post.

[malaise]

10. Ready and waiting - thankfully we'll get a day time hit

The rain is getting heavier - word is that Jim Cantore has landed.
THe Norman Manley AIrport will close at 10.00pm tonight and the Sangster Airport in Mobay will close at 8.00am tomorrow morning.

[HipChick]

11. Stay safe Malaise...

I'm headed your way Mon....

[malaise]

12. We'll be fine

Many others won't be that lucky

It was chaos on our streets today - took me two hours to reach home - it's usually a fifteen minute ride. People do take hurricanes seriously in these parts.

[Lochloosa]

13. As someone that has been through a few of these...I'm always thinking of you..

Stay safe my friend.

[malaise]

14. Thanks for your kind thoughts

rained all night - nothing heavy yet but the ground is saturated.

We'll survive

[BumRushDaShow]

15. We're thinking about you!!!

and hoping the power holds!!!!

They are already talking about the path and potential impact along the U.S. east coast (and not necessarily due to any direct hit but with the interaction of it with the jet stream and/or a cold front to bring flooding rain).

[malaise]

16. Thanks

We're expecting a Cat 1 but with all this rain and the saturated soil, some trees could fall and affect power. We'll see We're ready for whatever

[Baclava]

17. shouldn't affect the US - heading out to sea

[malaise]

18. Lots of discussions on this topic this morning

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Blizzard92/comment.html?entrynum=241

https://www.google.com.jm/search?q=munroe%20doctrine&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US fficial&client=firefox-a&source=hp&channel=np#hl=en&sugexp=pchate&gs_nf=3&pq=munroe%20doctrine&cp=30&gs_id=1vl&xhr=t&q=tropical+storm+sandy+noreaster&pf=p&client=firefox-a&rls=org.mozilla:en-US%3Aofficial&channel=np&sclient=psy-ab&oq=tropical+storm+sandy+noreaster&gs_l=&pbx=1&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.r_qf.&fp=763c0e7b0db569af&bpcl=35466521&biw=1138&bih=528

[Baclava]

20. it's beautiful here on the gulf side

[hack89]

19. "Sandy: a potential billion-dollar storm for the mid-Atlantic and New England"

On Friday, a very complicated meteorological situation unfolds, as Sandy interacts with a trough of low pressure approaching the U.S. East Coast and trough of low pressure over the Central Atlantic. The Central Atlantic trough may be strong enough to pull Sandy northeastwards, out to sea, as predicted by the official NHC forecast, and the 06Z GFS, 00Z UKMET, 00Z Canadian, and 06Z HWRF models (00Z is 8 pm EDT, and 06Z is 2 am EDT.) However, an alternative solution, shown by the 00Z ECMWF, 06Z GFDL, and 06Z NOGAPS models, is for Sandy to get caught up by the trough approaching the Eastern U.S., which will inject a large amount of energy into Sandy, converting it to a powerful subtropical storm that hits the mid-Atlantic or New England early next week with a central pressure below 960 mb and sustained winds of 60 - 70 mph. Such a storm would likely cause massive power outages and over a billion dollars in damage, as trees still in leaf take out power grids, and heavy rains and coastal storm surges create damaging flooding. The full moon is on Monday, which means astronomical tides will be at their peak for the month, increasing potential storm surge flooding. A similar meteorological situation occurred in October 1991, when Hurricane Grace became absorbed by a Nor'easter, becoming the so-called "Perfect Storm" that killed 13 people and did over $200 million in damage in the Northeast U.S.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2271