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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsDoomsday update just dropped:
Link to tweet
Text
Doomsday update just dropped:
"If Thwaites Glacier collapses, it opens the door for the rest of the West Antarctic ice sheet to slide into the sea. ... Its not only goodbye Miami, but goodbye to virtually every low-lying coastal city in the world."
Holy shit.
Quote Tweet
@RexChapman
New data suggests a massive collapse of the ice shelf in as little as five years. We are de
markie
(22,756 posts)JanMichael
(24,890 posts)Binkie The Clown
(7,911 posts)Scrivener7
(50,977 posts)Traildogbob
(8,771 posts)The movie. I loved it. The coastal MAGAs will shoot their assault rifles at the ocean like Ron did at the Comet. Time share coastal owners are fucked. Ya cant unload those properties.
markie
(22,756 posts)and a terror
the critics only saw a mirror
watched it Xmas eve with a houseguest who worked on the set... fun times
Traildogbob
(8,771 posts)On the set with all those stars. If I ever saw JLaw in person, I would pass out, bust my head on the floor and go in bliss. I really did enjoy it, I saw too much reality within the story. J Hill was such a good prick. Imagine if Jr was White House COS.
cilla4progress
(24,756 posts)for there to be any action.
Of course, I expect it will only be localized and short-lived.
SMDH
Response to cilla4progress (Reply #2)
Jim__ This message was self-deleted by its author.
brush
(53,801 posts)Irish_Dem
(47,184 posts)Irish_Dem
(47,184 posts)I don't think the flooding of cities will be any different.
Kablooie
(18,637 posts)And they will blame Democrats for not working harder to convince others to do something about it.
wcmagumba
(2,886 posts)Irish_Dem
(47,184 posts)Dial H For Hero
(2,971 posts)Such an event would raise sea levels approximately 230 feet. It would be the greatest disaster in human history bar none but Kansas wont be underwater.
Irish_Dem
(47,184 posts)Gore1FL
(21,134 posts)Irish_Dem
(47,184 posts)myccrider
(484 posts)IIRC, the Great Plains are scheduled to get drier and drier as climate change proceeds, eventually becoming more desert-like. Itll take decades, but it looks like the powers that be are going to drive us off that cliff, if it isnt already too late due to feed-back loops being triggered by the already baked-in CO2 load.
All thats also largely on the GOPs head, too. (Resolving the crisis is the responsibility of every country, if primarily the industrialized ones, and most are not doing a lot better than the US. So actually not all the GOPs fault. /pedantry)
Irish_Dem
(47,184 posts)Our corporate overlords do not want to pay for climate change prevention.
They will let it all go and make the people suffer and pay for any damage.
They believe themselves insulated.
myccrider
(484 posts)tblue37
(65,457 posts)Link to tweet
Text
2. Even if we could stop it, we wouldnt. Covid was a much more urgent and immediate crisis, and you saw how the US responded to that.
uponit7771
(90,347 posts)doc03
(35,358 posts)LakeArenal
(28,829 posts)Found the melting of the glacier is fake news. And in fact, it will end the drought problem in the west.
Do not trust science!!!!!!
PS.
OneBro
(1,159 posts)Of course, MAGAvangelicals will preach that the resulting floods are Gawd's wrath due to the "gay agenda" and declining tithes.
Achilleaze
(15,543 posts)"We don't have to do shit. Skip the vax. Skip the mask. Skip the truth. Embrace The Big Lie. And for sure lie lie lie about climate change. Make money DRILL BABY DRILL and laugh at the worrywort libs. Tee hee." - Republicans, inc.
Beetwasher.
(2,981 posts)That they should expect to be underwater in 15 years. Most of them think I'm joking. I'm not. Now I see I was wrong though. More like 5 years. Go figure.
roamer65
(36,745 posts)Time to consider selling if it is beachfront property.
Rent or buy cheap mobile homes if you want to live down there.
Frustratedlady
(16,254 posts)Suppose DeSantis will wake up? Ivanka and Jared still building their mansion on that island or whatever it is?
Chainfire
(17,576 posts)He would stand knee deep on Chrome Avenue and swear the flooding was fake. The worst part is his Fascist supporters would back him with a resounding, "What he said!"
bucolic_frolic
(43,236 posts)The insurance claims! Mass migration. Salt water inland.
Grasswire2
(13,571 posts)I'm really not up on climate projections.
Scrivener7
(50,977 posts)It seems pretty conservative to me.
Retrograde
(10,142 posts)It depends on the local elevation. If the sea level world wide rises by about 3 m as projected, the low-lying parts will be flooded at high tide. For NYC, that's lower Manhattan - including the subways - parts of Queens, Brooklyn, and Staten Island (don't know about the Bronx).
Other places that will be impacted: San Francisco Bay will expand, flooding all that new development in San Mateo as well as parts of San Francisco and Oakland. Tokyo, Sydney, Hong Kong - all port cities will be affected.
electric_blue68
(14,923 posts)Some of upper eastern, lowest eastern, possibly some of the lowest western area along the Harlem River north of the Washington Bridge (connects eastern Manhattan (Washington Hgts) with Western Bronx (Morris Hgts area).
Along the Bronx River.
A lot of the Bronx is higher.
Grasswire2
(13,571 posts)My ancestors were keepers of that light for 43 years ending in 1903. I have never seen it in person. Access is restricted, still.
But I hoped to, one day.
[link:https://media.istockphoto.com/photos/plum-island-lighthouse-picture-id1032590986?k=6&m=1032590986&s=612x612&w=0&h=V_uLYhy_7dCcQumyAISdbcPhK5tySACHg-4iVVMf22M=|
electric_blue68
(14,923 posts)I put in Plum Island L.I. Topological Map (Topo Map) on Google and found it. 😁
(I'd been checking to see what topological areas where some friends live in the 5 Burroughs anyway earlier)
.What was neat was you had a choice of different maps. So if you want to see an areal view you can.
They said the Island averages around 33 ft.
The stock photo you posted it looks like it's above the 10 ft they possibly project in sea rise.
Yeah, I see it's still restricted because of the dangerous animal diseases facility north east of the light house (not too close).
Hopefully, depending on your travelability, and finances (and covid being seriousy reduced) you might consider gathering up documentation of your family's service, and contact what ever appropriate officials to see if you can get a permit to visit at some future point.
.
As my dad used to say "If you don't ask..." 👍
milestogo
(16,829 posts)I live in Wisconsin.
Irish_Dem
(47,184 posts)Retrograde
(10,142 posts)for one thing, and the lowest of them is several hundred feet above sea level. I suppose heavy rainfall or snowfall could raise the water levels, or the sea level could rise so much that the St. Lawrence backs up into Lake Ontario and then up Niagara Falls into Erie, Huron, etc., but I don't think that's likely.
Irish_Dem
(47,184 posts)I think we don't yet know the full ramifications of the glacier collapse.
roamer65
(36,745 posts)They were built for shipping and water control.
The Great Lakes will become one of last bastions of plentiful fresh water, along with Lake Baikal in Siberia.
DetroitLegalBeagle
(1,925 posts)That is every bit of ice on the planet melted, it could swell Lake Ontario. I think Lake Ontario is only a 250-300ft above sea level and if I remember right, a total melt would raise water levels about that high. But that's as far as it would get(as far as the Great Lakes are concerned) since Lake Erie is 550-600ft above sea level and I think Huron, Michigan, and Superior are higher than that.
fwvinson
(488 posts)problems to worry about than sea levels.
newdayneeded
(1,955 posts)The bright side is, it'll be a good 4-5 hours less of a drive to the ocean! lol /Sarcasm, of course/
milestogo
(16,829 posts)roamer65
(36,745 posts)- Lex Luthor, Superman II.
roamer65
(36,745 posts)NOW.
8 BILLION IS TOO MANY.
RKP5637
(67,112 posts)SharonAnn
(13,777 posts)Scrivener7
(50,977 posts)RKP5637
(67,112 posts)onethatcares
(16,177 posts)for tax purposes and applying to the Federal government for the big bucks.
Chainfire
(17,576 posts)My property, currently inland, would suddenly become beachfront... The only thing in Miami that would survive is Mount Trashmore. The Keys would be know as Reef West. I put the glacier on my list of things to worry about right below the Fascists.
teach1st
(5,935 posts)From what I can see, most of the tweets center around this Rolling Stone article:
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/doomsday-glacier-thwaites-antarctica-climate-crisis-1273841/
And this is only one of the uncertainties that scientists face when trying to predict whether or not Miami will be underwater by 2100. There is further uncertainty in exactly where and when the ice will fracture, how much warm water will be pushed up beneath the glacier by changing winds and ocean currents, how the character of the bed the glacier rests on will speed up or slow down the glaciers slide into the sea. Whether the bed is hard rock or muddy till can have a big impact on the velocity of the glacier, just as the texture of snow affects how fast you ski down a mountain. Ice is alive, says Pettit. It moves and flows and breaks in ways that are difficult to anticipate.
Paradoxically, the more scientists learn about whats going on at Thwaites, the more divergent the latest climate models have become about its future. Consider the results of two models by highly respected scientists published side by side in Nature earlier this year. One model suggests that Thwaites stays fairly stable until temperatures rise above 2 C of warming. Then all hell breaks loose. Thwaites begins to fall into the sea like a line of dominoes pushed off a table and soon takes the rest of the West Antarctic ice sheet with it. And once the collapse begins, according to this model, it will be impossible to stop at least on any human time scale. In a century or so, global sea levels could rise 10 feet, which would swamp South Florida and Bangladesh and many other low-lying regions of the world.
In the other model, global sea level rise only differs by 4½ inches between a 1.5 C global temperature rise and a 3 C temperature rise (which is a little above where we are headed with under current emissions scenarios). And much of that comes from increased melt in Greenland and mountain glaciers. As for Antarctica, the paper says explicitly: No clear dependence on emissions scenario emerges for Antarctica.
If Thwaites breaks up in five years (which seems like a worse-case scenario), it doesn't look like a sudden sea rise follows immediately. Still, we need to be working hard on reducing warming. Our children's and grandchildren's lives depend on it.
Chainfire
(17,576 posts)not long term survival. People like Trump will find a way to profit from a one meter sea level rise. We can gnash our teeth and pull our hair about it until the cows come home and nothing meaningful will happen. Nature is going to take its course and the people who suffer the most will be the poor. The wealthy will always have their Berghof to retreat to and private armies to keep the trash out. The only thing that can save us is to strip the power from the Fascist before it is too damn late.
teach1st
(5,935 posts)I'm not optimistic about a concentrated global effort to work this out. Maybe it's because I recently watched "Don't Look Up," but so far, humans, particularly the MAGA wing, is determined to gum up mitigation efforts in the name of profit and plain old wrong-headed stubbornness.
RussBLib
(9,027 posts)People have been predicting catastrophe forever. That does not mean it will never happen.
I am torn. We own a home on South Padre Island, TX, which is about 7' above sea level. Miami is about 6' above sea level, officially. If a ton of sea ice melts or the sea level rises dramatically, we would obviously be fucked.
My family has a home inland about 80 miles west of us, but it is only about 100' above sea level. That might not even be enough.
This level of catastrophe is very difficult to imagine.
Chainfire
(17,576 posts)The effects are not simply surveying off where the water will be if the sea rises two feet, or building a three foot seawall. The consequences are far wider than that. A two foot sea level rise would make it's mark during high tide events like hurricanes. Of course, what will happen is that the rest of the people of Florida (folks like me) will end up paying out the ass building sea walls to protect the Dons of the state.
ancianita
(36,126 posts)Had fossil fuel companies coordinated and DONE IT, we'd get a few more years to stay below 2 degrees Centigrade.
Metaphorical
(1,604 posts)Much of the Deep South disappears under the waves, New York, Chicago, Montreal, Vancouver, Washington DC, Boston, Los Angeles are partially submerged. Seattle turns into an archipelago. London, Paris, Venice, Amsterdam, Copenhagen, Edinburgh, are partially submerged. Tokyo survives by dint of some very interesting engineering, but it too becomes a bunch of interconnected islands. Most of Western China, the most populated part, is gone. Sydney, a significant chunk of Brazil, most of Coastal India.
When Thwaites goes, the floodgates open. Part of the reason that sea rise has been so minimal thus far has been due to the fact that the glaciers that have melted have been over water. The worst effect of that is slowing the Gulf Stream, but we're already beginning to sea land-based glacial melting in Greenland, and there is significant evidence of melted ice creating water sheets underneath the glaciers in Antarctica, meaning that once a path opens, up, land-based glaciers will start sliding into the Antarctic Ocean very quickly.
Now, this is THE worst case. A ten-meter rise (which would be disastrous, and is at the very upper end of what I've heard for 2100). What I expect is that we'll see periods of stability with random disruptive events that will cause water levels to rise by several meters in a single decade over the course of the next millennium. This is nearly as bad, because there's no real way to tell how long those periods of stability are likely to be, but I suspect that the intervening collapses will be dramatic.
LAS14
(13,783 posts)Native
(5,942 posts)Implications for future sea level rise is fraught with uncertainty. Depending on various emissions scenarios... we could have as little as one foot of sea level rise by the end of the century."
Maggiemayhem
(811 posts)That was in 2013, I suppose he will revise this upwards.
ananda
(28,870 posts)!!!
niyad
(113,490 posts)within ten miles of a coast. Despite loving the ocean, I think that I will stay here at 6100 ft (even though this used to be an inland sea).
JanMichael
(24,890 posts)"Several avenues of research, including emerging science on physical feedbacks in the Antarctic ice sheet (e.g., DeConto and Pollard 2016, Kopp et al. 201780,81) suggest that global average sea level rise exceeding 8 feet (2.5 m) by 2100 is physically plausible, although its probability cannot currently be assessed (see Sweet et al. 2017, Kopp et al. 201757,25)."
From the US National Climate Assessment.
https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/2/
This shows what 8 feet might do:
https://www.fastcompany.com/3067846/see-how-the-coming-8-feet-of-sea-level-rise-will-drown-your-city
ancianita
(36,126 posts)move operations down to the Antarctic and drill there -- far, far easier than where they drill right now, 24/7/365 -- set up the drills to run during all seasons. Which they could do. They would succeed in drilling down into the rock and re-anchoring the slipping major glaciers on Antarctica, which would take a few years. So what if it's in a novel. It's an untried solution that can buy us at least a decade and save us from wet light bulb temperatures that will kill millions upon millions.
FakeNoose
(32,680 posts)The additional rise of ocean levels everywhere would affect the North Atlantic current and probably stall it or possibly even reverse it. The North Atlantic current is what keeps Europe as a warm and moderate climate, but that would all change immediately. Europe will freeze overnight if that happens.
I'm not sure if this is enough to flood all of Manhattan and other eastern cities, but it would certainly cause major trouble in the subways and tunnels, probably bridges and other avenues of transportation. How will people even get off the island of Manhattan to save themselves if everything is flooded? Consider Boston, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Wilmington, Charleston, Savannah, and there are many more cities but you get the idea. Large-scale rescue plans need to be devised for when this collapse occurs.
AllaN01Bear
(18,307 posts)include the bay area. the sacramento valley will become swamp again. then we will have lake fresNO at the end of the valley.
alfredo
(60,075 posts)pecosbob
(7,542 posts)Meowmee
(5,164 posts)Look down
Klaralven
(7,510 posts)https://www.sciencenews.org/article/antarctica-thwaites-glacier-ice-shelf-collapse-climate-5-years