Stark warning about life during Omicron, Jan - Feb 2022 from Tatiana Powell, M.D.

[swag]

I hope things don't get this bad, but they just might.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1476445160129114112.html

"Life in the US in Jan-Feb 2022 is going to be almost unrecognizable to most Americans. Even the people who have managed to pretend #COVID19 wasn’t happening are about to get a major wakeup call. When we call 911 & no one comes, when we literally cannot enter the ER for crowds…

When we go to grocery stores & find shelves empty, to pharmacies & find them closed because every single employee is out sick themselves or tending to a loved one. Please get what you need to look after your household. Fill prescriptions, get over the counter meds & staples…

As much as I hate it (and I really do, I’m a mom of 3 kids who had virtual school from Mar ‘20 til Sept ‘21), the idea that schools will manage to stay open in any meaningful way in Jan is a joke. Staffing issues alone will close them.

Prepare for major disruption in Jan ‘22. MAJOR. Start thinking now about how you can help your family/friends/neighbors—w/ supplies, w/ skills, w/ knowledge—& vice versa because we are deep trouble if we don’t go all in as a community of helpers for what is coming. #Omicron

This won’t last forever. I promise. But Jan & Feb 2022 are going to be very dangerous & difficult. All the things you can ordinarily count on, you won’t be able to count on. I’m here as a dr & so is @gleeson_md to help anyone in our #HoCoMd community. That’s what we can offer."

[MiniMe]

1. Hate me if you want, but this is why I bought a side of beef

It's grassfed beef, so relatively healthy. So far, it has been delicious. When you buy a side, it is $2.22 a lb plus about $300 for processing so it is much cheaper than going to the grocery store. HoCoMd is right down the street from me.

[BigmanPigman]

5. Do you have a walk in freezer?

If a side of beef moved into my apt there wouldn't be room for me. (500 sq ft).

[MiniMe]

6. No, I have a single family home with a 2 car garage

Have an extra refrigerator and 2 stand alone freezers in the garage. It's big enough to put 2 cars in too. I bought a side of beef last year, got 59# of ground beef. This steer was bigger, got 71# of ground beef out of this one. Anybody near me is welcome to a pound or 2 of ground beef.

[NoRethugFriends]

9. Or you could buy things that don't require killing animals.

[MiniMe]

12. Like I said, hate me if you want

But I like beef. I live in a semi rural town.

[I_UndergroundPanther]

17. Well...I eat meat

Morally trying to shame people into not eating meat is rude.

I have to eat meat being diabetic,if I became a vegetarian diabetic it could kill me.

Most veggies have substantial carbs. My sugar levels would be high all the time. Eating meat slows down the assimilation of carbs.

Some people have to eat meat to manage things like diabeties.

Vegetarians on a crusade to change meat eaters to become vegetarian looks like a attempt to convert me to your lifestyle and it can become annoying.

Go tell a tiger to stop killing animals.

[Tumbulu]

28. I hope that you feel better soon

and am sorry that you must clearly be having a hard day.

I care about people’s diet restrictions and this is a discussion board.

My name is not “nobody” and I am not Odysseus.

[Tumbulu]

30. I agree and

my name is not “nobody” .

[Celerity]

31. I eat meat, agree with most of what you say, (not only now) except for one big thing

I have to eat meat being diabetic,if I became a vegetarian diabetic it could kill me.

Sorry, but that is just not true at all, it is non scientific-based misinformation.

I know multiple Type 1 and Type 2 vegetarian (some vegan) diabetics. One of my very, very best friends from later childhood onward in London is a Type 1 diabetic and has been vegan since she was 15 (she is 26 now). She is extremely healthy, we have backpacked, skied (Alpine and Nordic), etc for years together.

Some relevant articles:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/health.clevelandclinic.org/want-go-vegetarian-diabetes/amp/

https://www.diabetes.org.uk/guide-to-diabetes/enjoy-food/eating-with-diabetes/vegetarian-diets#:~:text=Vegetarian%20diets%20have%20been%20shown,maintain%20a%20healthy%20body%20weight.

[moonscape]

34. Management of T1 and very insulin resistant T2 diabetes

are quite different. The later would have a tough time being vegan without a whole lot of insulin which would have a problematic compounding effect. The heavy carb load would be brutal.

[Celerity]

35. I know multiple type 2 (more than type 1) diabetics who are vegan or vegetarian, and certainly are

not in any danger of death from that choice.

I also provided valid and sound links explaining why the initial claim was false.

[moonscape]

36. We just have to agree to disagree. As someone who

has been waist deep on the subject for a decade, with a public role for years, I really do know a lot. Sure being vegan can be done, but it’s very very difficult for a T2 with significant insulin resistance. There are some for whom just not eating junk can reverse their diabetes but I’m not talking about them. I’m assuming comparing only real, whole food but differing macros.

But really, the subj is too complex for a discussion here and we can’t do either side justice in a few paragraphs. Glad your vegan friends are thriving

[Hortensis]

90. Thanks for the input.

It'd be wonderful if no one ever listened to anyone but their medical providers about such a serious problem, but of course we know some will. Guessing most of us know/have known people with type 2 and seen some of the dreadful effects it can have.

[sir pball]

56. How do you figure out if someone's a vegan? No need to, they can't help but tell you!

[canetoad]

38. I bought

A side of tofu.

[Thtwudbeme]

41. We are vegetarians, and I cannot believe that your comment

on a thread about stocking up for a pandemic spike turned into a stupid assed commentary on your diet.

I think you are smart as hell to stock up- we are too. So what if we are stocking up on different food items?

Lord god, people are idiots. This is why we are going to have a crap winter.

[MiniMe]

83. Thank you

I have a fully stocked freezer now. There was a reason that I typed hate me if you want, because I sort of knew it would turn into something about buying a side of beef. I can't believe the price of meat at the grocery store and it is much cheaper buying by the side. I think I paid $2.22 a pound.

[Grasswire2]

2. her good suggestions require resources that many people just don't have right now

Stocking up on health supplies, food -- that's beyond the ability of too many people. Even staying warm and dry, getting transportation when necessary to say nothing of housing issues....

I saw someone recommend a $500 pandemic stimulus be issued to every SNAP and Medicaid recipient right now, in the form of a debit card.

Just make it happen.

I saw the message earlier today and began to worry about the houseless, the disabled, the veterans, and so many who just don't have resources.

[I_UndergroundPanther]

20. I would feel a lot more

Secure knowing I had plenty of snap bucks to use. I would go shopping as soon as I got it to get some extra food.
Wish they'd raise ssi to the rate of inflation. 1,000 bux a month would do wonders to help me get the stuff I need to be able to handle the future chaos

[Grasswire2]

26. I hear you.

It should be a priority issue right now.

Lots of advice out there for how to protect oneself --- but no help for those who are low on resources. Some elderly, some disabled, some veterans, some houseless...

[Hortensis]

89. The vast majority can take care of themselves, and the suggestion

of the OP is that the vast majority prepare for a few weeks that may require increased self reliance. People who can't afford to buy a couple bags of rice and beans and some canned goods no doubt already know where the closest soup kitchens are.

I suspect many households among that vast majority already have increased their stocks on hand over the past couple of years, though, and thus their competence and resilience. It's unlikely that food is going to become unavailable over a few weeks even if supplies really were significantly disrupted. But some children will go hungry rather than eat most everything, so those parents might get serious enough to tuck an extra bag of chicken nuggets in the freezer.

Btw, your community and/or county and private organizations, and federal agencies, no doubt provide various resources year-round for people who need emergency and/or chronic help, food and medications being existential needs. Some communities don't do as good a job as others, of course.

[Grasswire2]

91. that may be the most uncharitable response to hunger I've seen in 20 years of DU.

Might be time to get off your rocking chair (that you mention in your profile) and open your eyes to the world.

The suggestion that children might be going hungry in a nation-wide pandemic because they are picky eaters is extremely offensive. Maybe you'd like to beat up on disabled veterans and physically or mentally handicapped people, too?

I'm stunned, actually, to see the sentiments and judgments you offer -- here on DEMOCRATIC Underground.

[Hortensis]

92. I was a homeless child, Grasswire2. I knew hunger, privation,

physical and mental abuse by the police and school staffs because I was so poor. One year I missed 2 months of school because I had no shoes, but most times we found something for me to shuffle along in whether they fit or not.

Before I built my skills as an adult, I knew what it was to lie awake every month worrying about how to make a payment on a bill that had gone critical (always medical bills for years; we had no other debt) and still have enough to keep utilities from being cut off.

My intolerance is for the portrayal of low income people as weak and feckless, always in need of and ENTITLED to support by those with enough income to pay taxes. That's an enormous insult to most, and imo doesn't say much for those who don't know why. NOWHERE ELSE do I find this stuff in such abundance.

It's hardly all about insulting poor people either, or even about helping people who need more than the existing social services already provide. Apparently no one should be expected to be self reliant. Remembering now those who were outraged at having rescue checks denied to people who might have to move from luxury homes to cheaper if taxpayers who never had it so nice weren't required to ante up to keep them there. Remember? Imo, that's really warped, the more so that many of the angry no doubt have never lived half as nice. Who were they really angry about? Surely not really for the imagined privations of people who might have to trade in their leased Lexuses for Kias?

I'm a real liberal and I'm all in for society supporting those who can't maintain without it. Also for the kind of European programs that working people choose to pay big money into to create good socialized benefits for themselves. But again, those recipients pay in to get out, and we don't have those programs yet.

And back that maintaining thing: when my mom couldn't pay for some cheap room for us, she found something even cheaper. (Of course, having almost no possessions made it a lot easier than it would be for a couple who had to hire a moving company, I admit.)

In this country and anywhere, until we are paying in to get out even though we're not in trouble, that's what I expect other capable people to do before putting their hands out. Take care of themselves, including collecting benefits they've created for themselves, until they REALLY can't.

Those always with us who are disabled by physical and mental problems, or whose resources are genuinely bottomed out, I believe should be and are entitled to look to others for help. But this hands-out mentality I'm objecting to isn't about them.

As for those government handout checks some imagine should just keep flowing, those were to keep functional people from hitting bottom in an emergency, and helping drag others of the community with them. It's always been much more possible and much less expensive to help people stay on their feet with necessary possessions than to help them return to society from whatever cardboard box they'd been sheltering in after they lost everything.

The Covid relief checks were for that, but also to keep the jobs they and others needed from disappearing.

Btw, have you checked the unemployment figures lately? The vast majority are back to work and supporting themselves again. A bag of rice and packets of gravy powder are within reach for the emergency provisions recommended in the OP. Most could do better for themselves if they chose.

[BigmanPigman]

3. Yes, I too am planning for the coming Covid blizzard.

I'm doing the long term shopping tomorrow and planning on going out once a week. I still have TP in the trunk of my car since I live in a small apartment with no storage. My oven has doubled as storage too.

I am not even scheduling recommended medical tests until March. I bought 20 N95s 2 weeks ago. I couldn't believe they were in stock. I had given up on getting any for over a year and have been recycling the 5 that I got almost 2 years ago. They are very tight and I feel safe wearing them, I don't care about how hot they are or that they make my skin break out sometimes.

[Jon King]

15. You will have plenty of supplies.

Nothing she said will actually happen. Most of the disruptions were from employees with zero symptoms being forced to quarantine for 10 days, now 5.

[Thtwudbeme]

42. Cite your sources for your claims:

Most of the disruptions were from employees with zero symptoms being forced to quarantine for 10 days, now 5.

[Demsrule86]

50. The person who wrote this has one shitty article on shitty Google Scholar which anyone can

post and article to...thus I would not believe her...there could and probably will be some issues...but fear-mongering is this article amounts to.

[Thtwudbeme]

52. I am a librarian, and teach research methods to middle schoolers

An MD does not need to be "published" in order to be considered a credible source.

Kudos to you for looking for peer reviewed published research- but, you also need to examine other factors to determine if information is credible. A simple google search- NOT "research" brings up her biography at John Hopkins.

[Laurelin]

74. It's Johns Hopkins

Not John, if you're referring to the school.

[xmas74]

79. That could be a simple mistake.

My phone autocorrects Johns every time I type it. I know this so I pay close attention.

[Laurelin]

84. I hate autocorrect

Mine thinks I am typing in German and keeps "fixing" my English. It also disagreed with Johns so I had to fight with it. Honestly it shouldn't matter but it was my dad's alma mater and I hate it when CNN and other places spell it wrong.

[Thtwudbeme]

55. Here is a list of her publications. Maybe Google Scholar isn't as "scholarly" as you

would wish.

Prowell T, Smith B. Neutropenic Fever. In: Cheng A, Zaas A., eds. The Osler Medical Handbook, First Edition. Philadelphia: Mosby, 2003: 537-544.
Prowell T, Liu M. Asthma. In: Cheng A, Zaas A., eds. The Osler Medical Handbook, First Edition. Philadelphia: Mosby, 2003: 867-880.
Prowell T, Davidson N. What is the role of ovarian ablation in the management of primary and metastatic breast cancer today? The Oncologist 2004; 9(5): 507-517.
Prowell T, Stearns V. Commentary on: “Are breast density and bone mineral density independent risk factors for breast cancer?” (Kerlikowske et al, J Natl Cancer Inst 2005;97:368-374). The North America Menopausal Society (NAMS): First to Know. April 2005. www.menopause.org/news.html
Sheth A, Prowell T, Krishnan J. Asthma. In: Nilsson K, Piccini J., eds. The Osler Medical Handbook, Second Edition. Philadelphia: Saunders Elsevier, 2006: 865-876.
Prowell T, Stearns V, Trock B. Lipophilic statins merit additional study for breast cancer chemoprevention. Journal of Clinical Oncology, 2006; 24(13): 2128-2129.
Prowell T, Stearns V. Disease-free survival was greater with letrozole than tamoxifen in postmenopausal women with early breast cancer. ACP Journal Club, 2006: 145(1): 11.
Bao T, Prowell T, Stearns V. Chemoprevention of breast cancer: Tamoxifen, raloxifene, and beyond. American Journal of Therapeutics, 2006; 13(4): 337-348.
Prowell T, Davidson N. Metastatic breast cancer: Tailored endocrine therapy for premenopausal women. In: Piccart M, Wood W, Hung M-C, Solin L, Cardoso F., eds. Breast Cancer Management and Molecular Medicine: Towards Tailored Approaches. Springer-Verlag, 2006: 445-458.
Prowell T, Armstrong D. Selecting endocrine therapy for breast cancer: What role does HER-2/neu status play? Seminars in Oncology, 2006; 33(6): 681-687.
Prowell T, Stearns V. Extended adjuvant therapy for breast cancer—how much is enough? J Natl Cancer Inst. 2007 99: 1825-1827.
Prowell T, Fackler M, Argani P, Khouri N, Blackford A, Shahverdi K, Wolff A, Davidson N, Sukumar S, Stearns V. A prospective study of adjuvant anastrozole and gene promoter methylation in the contralateral breast of high-risk women. J Clin Oncol 26: 2008 (May 20 suppl; abstr 1514).
Bao T, Shahverdi K, Blackford A, Prowell T, Jeter S, Powers P, Wright L,. Snyder C, Stearns V, Visvanathan K.Quality of life changes in breast cancer patients participating in an anastrozole secondary prevention trial.J Clin Oncol 26: 2008 (May 20 suppl; abstr 1515).
Prowell T, Ibrahim A, Farrell A, Justice R, Sun Mitchell S, Sridhara R, and Pazdur R. FDA Approval Summary: Temsirolimus as Treatment for Advanced Renal Cell Carcinoma. The Oncologist 2010; 15:428-35.
Prowell T, Blackford A, Byrne C, Khouri N, Dowsett M, Folkerd E, Tarpinian K, Powers P, Wright L, Donehower M, Jeter S, Armstrong D, Emens L, Fetting J, Wolff A, Garrett-Mayer E, Skaar T, Davidson N, Stearns V. Changes in breast density and circulating estrogens in postmenopausal women receiving adjuvant anastrozole. Cancer Prev Res 2011; 4:1993-2001.
Higgins M, Prowell T, Blackford A, Byrne C, Khouri N, Slater S, Jeter S, Armstrong D, Davidson N, Emens L, Fetting J, Powers P, Wolff A, Green H, Thibert J, Rae J, Folkerd E, Dowsett M, Blumenthal R, Garber J, Stearns V. A Short-Term Biomarker Modulation Study of Simvastatin in Women at Increased Risk of a New Breast Cancer. Breast Cancer Res Treat 2012; 131: 915-924
Prowell T, Pazdur R. Pathological Complete Response and Accelerated Drug Approval in Early Breast Cancer. N Engl J Med. 2012; 366:2438-41.
Prowell T. Guidance for Industry: Pathologic Complete Response in Neoadjuvant Treatment of High-Risk Early-Stage Breast Cancer: Use as an Endpoint to Support Accelerated Approval; http://www.fda.gov/downloads/Drugs/GuidanceComplianceRegulatoryInformation/Guidances/UCM305501.pdf.
Zhang L, Untch M, Mehta K, Costantino J, Wolmark N, Bonnefoi H, Cameron D, Gianni L, Valagussa P, Zujewski J, Justice R, Loibl S, Wickerham L, Bogaerts J, Baselga J, Perou C, Blumenthal G, Blohmer J, Mamounas E, Bergh J, Semiglazov V, Prowell T, Eidtmann H, Paik S, Piccart M, Sridhara R, Fasching P, Swain S, Slaets L, Tang S, Gerber B, Geyer C, Pazdur R, Ditsch N, Rastogi P, Eiermann W, and von MinckwitzG. Meta-analysis Results from the Collaborative Trials in Neoadjuvant Breast Cancer (CTneoBC). Cancer Res 2012;72 (24 Suppl):Abstract P114-20.
Prowell T, Eidtmann H, Paik S, Piccart M, Sridhara R, Fasching P, Swain S, Slaets L, Tang S, Gerber B, Geyer C, Pazdur R, Ditsch N, Rastogi P, Eiermann W, and von Minckwitz G. A Definition of a High-Risk Early-Breast Cancer Population Based on Data from the Collaborative Trials in Neoadjuvant Breast Cancer (CTNeoBC) meta-analysis. Cancer Res 2013; Abstract P5-17-01.
Prowell T, Eidtmann H, Paik S, Piccart M, Sridhara R, Fasching P, Swain SM, Slaets L, Tang S, Gerber B, Geyer C, Pazdur R, Ditsch N, Rastogi P, Eiermann W, vonMincwitz G. Pathological complete response in breast cancer: CTNeoBC pooled-analysis. The Lancet. Epub ahead of print Feb 14, 2014.

[Thtwudbeme]

57. I went to google scholar- which I almost never do

But, looking at the list of publications I gave you, it occurred to me that you were probably either spelling the Dr's name wrong- as it is in the title of the OP, or not using her initial of her first name and the correct spelling of her last.

Here is your corrected search link- note that she has been cited by over 4,000 others.

https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C34&q=T.+Prowell&btnG=

[JanMichael]

65. Are you going to correct yourself after getting schooled on research?

Your comment "The person who wrote this has one shitty article on shitty Google Scholar" is patently incorrect and the basis of your attack on credibility.

[Scrivener7]

85. Three New York subway lines were closed yesterday because of lack of staff.

And Omicron is just getting started.

Just look up.

[Tree Lady]

4. Wow if this is true I might have to do

Some major shopping this next week.

I have been watching daily cases around here went from 50-60 too 100 a day then today 185. Hospital staying the same around 60-70 people. Few people dying each day.

We went to Costco today and I got angry more people not wearing masks each time I go. There was about 15-20 people I saw today. I stayed far away and left quickly.

[SergeStorms]

27. I went to my local Costco as well.

I live in New York and we have a mask mandate for public places, but there were still people wandering around unmasked. Why none of the employees confronted them, I can't say. Probably didn't want to get into an argument with a rabid anti-vaxxer.

There was one woman who was coughing her way around the store (wearing a mask, but pulled down beneath her nose) and she scared the hell out of me. It was a dry, hacking cough, and she looked pale and feverish. I saw her coming down the idle and I turned around and ran to the other side of the store. I didn't want to be within one city block of her.

Again, why someone like that was even allowed in the store perplexed me. I got what I needed and left. No browsing today.

[Tree Lady]

75. I am in Oregon mask mandate also

But live in a conservative town. At the beginning people were actually better and Costco forced them to behave, but I think like you said they tired of all the fights especially when there is zero backup here, police said they wouldn't enforce it here.

Governor had to send her people out a few times in beginning but its like now they just beg people to get vaccinated.

[neverforget]

86. I went to the Costco yesterday in Clackamas and I saw 100% compliance.

I went expecting Hell on Earth but it wasn't very busy at all which shocked me. Every time I had been there this year, it was super busy. I'm thinking it was just Thursday morning.

[Tomconroy]

7. I haven't read about anything like this happening in the UK. They

are a few weeks ahead of us in dealing with Omicron.

[Fiendish Thingy]

8. Some areas (red states) will be catastrophic, others more likely return to spring 2020 restrictions

But with less impacted health care system.

Other docs are feeling more hopeful and optimistic that while the next 6-8 weeks will be rough, afterwards things could improve significantly.

[Demsrule86]

49. I do not agree...there will be few if any lockdowns. There is no money to pay those sitting home

and no way to get Congress to act with a 5050 Senate. People will go to work and stay home when they are sick.

[sir pball]

59. I can say for certain the restaurant business won't lock down again.

As you said, there's no more emergency money coming in and there's bills to pay. My current job is doing well, but my wife's spot is on an absolute skeleton crew as six people are out - but there's no plans to close the restaurant as would have happened in May 2020. Someone tests positive, they stay home until they're negative while what staff remains soldiers on. Needs must...

[TheFarseer]

62. I believe you are correct

There is no stomach for more lockdowns in this country especially when you can choose to be protected against the virus. Furthermore, the Omnicron variant is less deadly and has less incubation period which is why the CDC reduced quarantine period from ten to five days. This should cut in half work days lost for quarantine.

[Fiendish Thingy]

64. We shall see- even without lockdowns, there may be enough sick folks that the effect would be same

[beaglelover]

73. Encountered this for the first time last night. We went out to eat at a Chinese restaurant

last night and they were closed with a sign on the door, saying due to COVID illness among our staff, Chin Chin will not open today, 12/30/2021.

[JHB]

72. Yep. There was money earlier because the Republicans were covering their asses

Now, this is their big chance to blame make hardship, suffering, and death worse so they can blame the Democrats at election time.

They haven't cared so far about how many die for their political grandstanding. They're not going to start now.

[Doodley]

10. That doomsday vision isn't in line with reports that Omicron tends to cause less severe symptoms.

Omicron will spread rapidly and peak quickly with most folk showing mild or no symptoms. Even if it swept through a particular supermarket, infecting every employee at the same time, the new CDC guidance is for the boosted asymptomatic to mask up and carry on. It seems unlikely that there will be the disturbances you talk of.

[swag]

11. We'll see. I hope the author is overblowing things, but ...

We're just getting started, and already 25 states broke records today.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/30/health/us-coronavirus-thursday/

(CNN)An unprecedented spike in Covid-19 cases fueled by the fast-moving Omicron variant is crushing hospitals across the United States, with doctors describing packed emergency rooms as health experts implore New Year's Eve revelers to keep parties small and outdoors to help avert an even worse surge.

"It's unlike anything we've ever seen, even at the peak of the prior surges of Covid," Dr. James Phillips, who works in Washington, DC, said Wednesday, when the nation hit a new pandemic high of 300,886 average new daily cases over the prior week, according to Johns Hopkins University data.

"What we're experiencing right now is an absolute overwhelming of the emergency departments" in Washington, Phillips, chief of disaster medicine at George Washington University Hospital, told CNN's Jim Acosta.

It's a scene playing out across the country as record case counts are reported from New Jersey and New York to Arkansas and Chicago, where hospital bed capacity also is a concern. In Arizona and New Mexico, federal medical personnel have deployed to provide Covid-19 surge support.

. . .

[appalachiablue]

29. On the subject of pandemics: 'Contagion' movie (2011)

Last edited Fri Dec 31, 2021, 03:10 AM - Edit history (1)

- CLIP. 'Contagion': 'Looting the Pharmacy': Panic and looting starts at the pharmacy and spreads across town.

- Film Description: When Beth Emhoff (Gwyneth Paltrow) returns to Minnesota from a Hong Kong business trip, she attributes the malaise she feels to jet lag. However, 2 days later, Beth is dead, and doctors tell her shocked husband (Matt Damon) that they have no idea what killed her.
Soon, many others start to exhibit the same symptoms, and a global pandemic explodes. Doctors try to contain the lethal microbe, but society begins to collapse as a blogger (Jude Law) promoting 'forsythia treatment' fans the flames of paranoia.
____
- Contagion is a 2011 American thriller film directed by Steven Soderbergh. Its ensemble cast includes Marion Cotillard, Matt Damon, Laurence Fishburne, Jude Law, Gwyneth Paltrow, Kate Winslet, Bryan Cranston, Jennifer Ehle, and Sanaa Lathan. The plot concerns the spread of a virus transmitted by respiratory droplets and fomites, attempts by medical researchers and public health officials to identify and contain the disease, the loss of social order in a pandemic, and the introduction of a vaccine to halt its spread.. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contagion_(2011_film)

[Thtwudbeme]

63. It seems MORE likely to me

Nt

[Jon King]

13. Uggh, utter nonsense, the wave in S. Africa is already gone.

Geez, these people need to stop with this. Omicron is mild, most trucking companies and warehouses have vaccinated most employees.

The ONLY people getting more than a cold like illness for 2-4 days from Omicron are unvaxxed AND obese/diabetes. End of story. The hospitals will be full in some areas the next 4-5 weeks with the unvaxxed but supply chains will be just fine. Companies have been getting key personnel vaxxed for a long time now.

The airline thing was the perfect storm of the CDC 10 day guide and holiday travel. Airlines are quickly returning to normal now that the CDC has lowered the quarantine time, most employees had no symptoms. In a few more days air travel will be back to normal staffing.

Omicron is actually going to immunize millions of relatively healthy unvaxxed people, in the long run its a good thing.

[roamer65]

18. There is no guarantee that natural antibodies to Omicron will last or work against future variants.

Only way forward is vaccinations. More than likely at least twice a year.

[Jon King]

22. This is unknowable at this time.

The odds are antibodies from Omicron will be protective, odds are that future variants will be less deadly, more transmissible but less deadly. Trends in viruses tend to keep going....less deadly, more transmissible strains dominate.

But yes, vaccines will be required periodically, just like flu vaccines. Mark my words....once we get through the next month things will improve very fast regarding Covid and never return to what is going on the past few years.

[oioioi]

33. "This is the sickest I've ever been"

"Everyone told me Omicron was supposed to be mild. Everyone else in my family only had cold symptoms. I (F17, double vaxxed) can barely move. It took all the strength I had to sit up and even attempting to hold my phone exhausts me. Everything hurts. I have a headache and it hurts to even be in a room with any light. I constantly feel like I'm going to vomit but I am so dehydrated. My heartrate is so high and my throat keeps filling up. This is hell. I don't understand how this is mild."

https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19positive/comments/rs3r3g/this_is_the_sickest_ive_ever_been/

[Demsrule86]

47. I suggest you obtain Gatorade ASAP...dehydration makes Covid symptoms worse.

Hubs took guaifenesin which helped quite a bit. Hope you feel better soon.

[NNadir]

14. Who is Tatiana Powell, and what special insight does she have to make these kinds of predictions?

She seems not to have authored a single paper recorded on Google Scholar.

[Jon King]

19. She has no expertise to make that prediction.

She also followed up with a tweet telling everyone to get their will up to date because of Omicron. Give me a break, how many vaxxed people have died from Omicron, or even gotten more than the sniffles? Not enough to even count.

[Demsrule86]

45. Fear mongerer...wrote one paper and that makes her an expert...hell I guess I am a damned

expert on 1918 too...I have my name on two papers.

[JanMichael]

67. You are sorely mistaken. And keep repeating the same garbage.

This - "wrote one paper and that makes her an expert"

Has been proven to be incorrect.

[Demsrule86]

46. And Google Scholar is not a Scientific publication.

[Thtwudbeme]

58. Here is your corrected search-

https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C34&q=T.+Prowell&btnG=

[NNadir]

68. Thank you. I misspelled her name. She's an oncologist, not an epidemiologist or infectious...

...disease physician or epidemiologist.

[Thtwudbeme]

76. Not really sure why you responded

? The post was not directed towards you, and this is the first few times you have posted on this thread.

I am aware of her credentials.

[NNadir]

69. It isn't, but scientists use it all the time.

[Thtwudbeme]

54. Her name is Tatiana Prowell

Here is her bio with credentials:

https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/profiles/details/tanya-prowell

[Thtwudbeme]

60. Her name is spelled incorrectly in the OP's title

She is an MD at John Hopkins, her bio with credentials is on their website-

Here is the correct Google Scholar link:

https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C34&q=T.+Prowell&btnG=

[JanMichael]

66. Are you going to correct yourself after getting schooled on research?

Your comment "She seems not to have authored a single paper recorded on Google Scholar." is patently incorrect and the basis of your attack on credibility.

[NNadir]

71. I did. I had a typo. If that's a crime against humanity about which I need to be "schooled..."

Last edited Fri Dec 31, 2021, 12:10 PM - Edit history (3)

...well, I apologize to your august insight. As it happens, I've been involved in laboratory research for better than 40 years. I'm a chemist, which doesn't make me a fucking expert in orbital dynamics any more than being an oncologist makes one an expert in epidemiology.

I didn't know he she was, and, now that I do, I'm still not impressed with her expertise in infectious disease epidemiology, virology, or Covid-19.

Maybe, since you're busy seeking an apology, you can explain to me this text, from her most cited paper, a metanalysis, and it's relevance to epidemiology of Covid-19, among which she is a member of a team of authors, few of whom I imagine are epidemiologists:

Patricia Cortazar, Lijun Zhang, Michael Untch, Keyur Mehta, Joseph P Costantino, Norman Wolmark, Hervé Bonnefoi, David Cameron, Luca Gianni, Pinuccia Valagussa, Sandra M Swain, Tatiana Prowell, Sibylle Loibl, D Lawrence Wickerham, Jan Bogaerts, Jose Baselga, Charles Perou, Gideon Blumenthal, Jens Blohmer, Eleftherios P Mamounas, Jonas Bergh, Vladimir Semiglazov, Robert Justice, Holger Eidtmann, Soonmyung Paik, Martine Piccart, Rajeshwari Sridhara, Peter A Fasching, Leen Slaets, Shenghui Tang, Bernd Gerber, Charles E Geyer, Richard Pazdur, Nina Ditsch, Priya Rastogi, Wolfgang Eiermann, Gunter von Minckwitz,
Pathological complete response and long-term clinical benefit in breast cancer: the CTNeoBC pooled analysis, The Lancet, Volume 384, Issue 9938, 2014, Pages 164-172,

New agents to treat breast cancer have historically been approved first in the metastatic setting, with approval for use in early-stage breast cancer following many years later on the basis of results of large randomised adjuvant trials with long follow-up. Neoadjuvant treatment—systemic therapy delivered before definitive breast cancer surgery—was once reserved to reduce the size and extent of locally advanced tumours, but is now being used more widely. In addition to increasing the likelihood of tumour control and the potential for curability in early breast cancer, neoadjuvant trials allow rapid assessment of drug efficacy and could expedite development and approval of treatments for early breast cancer.1 Pathological complete response has been proposed as a surrogate endpoint for prediction of long-term clinical benefit, such as disease-free survival and overall survival (OS).2, 3, 4, 5

Although pathological complete response has been the most commonly used endpoint in neoadjuvant trials, it has been variably defined, which has made reporting and interpretation of data challenging. One way to optimise the definition of pathological complete response, enable the interpretation of data, and investigate the association between pathological complete response and long-term outcome is via a pooled analysis of neoadjuvant trials. To obtain the requisite number of trials for this pooled analysis, the US Food and Drug Administration established an international working group known as Collaborative Trials in Neoadjuvant Breast Cancer (CTNeoBC) with investigators who had done neoadjuvant trials for which long-term data are available...

Since you're so concerned with "schooling" people, I assume you have same access to the scientific literature that I do, you are welcome to go through Dr. Prowell's publications to share with me her insight on epidemiology.

There seems to be a huge outbreak of dicking around here at DU over the last several days, and people rushing to assure themselves that we all should panic. I have no idea if its an epidemic since I'm not an epidemiologist, or an infectious "dicking around" epidemiologist.

Many scientists, most scientists, make speculations about issues beyond their expertise, which is fine. Scientists do not need to live in a narrow box. Many scientists study carefully, even deeply, areas beyond their training but do not publish. I do read the primary scientific literature on the subject of Covid-19 pretty much every fucking day; I am involved, albeit peripherally, in human clinical trials, but I am not an expert in Covid-19.

This said, I've been interacting with public discussions of science a long time, and as a result, I always try to be careful to avoid a very, very, very, very, very important logical fallacy that most people, including those engaging in conversations about well, anything: Appeal to Authority Fallacy: When and How Is It Wrong to Rely on Experts?

After you've gone through and opened all of Dr. Prowell's papers and found the center of her expertise on Covid-19, and relaxed your anger at me for committing the crime of "typo," maybe you can read all about why it is important to check sources.

Or maybe you don't give a fuck about checking sources and their expertise. I do. Do you think I have to apologize for that to you? If so, you're going to wait a very long time to get it. Maybe one of my sons will send it to you after I die.

If, on the other hand, your panicked over Dr. Prowell's remarks, and want to go lock yourself in the bathroom, do so.

For the record, not every scientific publication is like scripture allegedly handed down to Moses, and every good scientist knows that. Publications are often retracted, sometimes at the request of one or more of the authors, sometimes by the Journals that published them. There's an excellent website devoted to the topic: Retraction Watch.

During the recent online ACS meeting, which I attended, the VP's of both Pfizer and Moderna each gave a lecture on issues in mRNA vaccines, their flexibility, sequence modification, production technology etc. Pfizer has announced its intention to complete a vaccine modified for omicron in the next hundred days; Moderna, by March. The technology is fully developed for rapid construction of these modifications, and the major infrastructure that was missing in the past, industrial scale production of complex lipids, has been addressed.

I am indeed sorry if I can't applaud panicking over a tweet. I'm a scientist, not a fool.

[Thtwudbeme]

77. This is weird- did you think JanMichael was responding to you?

The person (not you) to whom both the other poster and I were responding to wrote that T. Prowell had "one crappy paper" on Google Scholar.

BTW, being involved in laboratory research does not make you a "scientist." Hell, you could be a lab tech whose job it is to clean. What are your credentials?

And- I am not "panicking." I am a librarian. I am stocking up on coffee and books.

[NNadir]

80. Whatever, I'm a little ill this weekend, have a lot on my plate, and I'm more than a little...

...disgusted with panic posts based on tweets, or for that matter, publications in the popular media.

I was responding to this by Jan Michael:

Your comment "She seems not to have authored a single paper recorded on Google Scholar." is patently incorrect and the basis of your attack on credibility.

We simply don't know where omicron is going, but I'm facing lots of dicking around when I try to express that, for better or worse.

It's ironic however, that it seems that some of my posts have the quality of tweets because I'm working very fast, am tired and a little sick, and people who worship tweets feel the need to dick around with my posts while giving authority to tweets.

I really shouldn't venture in the GD forum.

It's depressing.

[Thtwudbeme]

81. I am not on Twitter. I only read what DUers post about it.

Take care of yourself if you are sick.

[NNadir]

82. I'm not either, but whole terror threads come out of it or equivalents, including this one. In...

...general, the evolution of tweets, which by definition cannot be deep and reflective, has had a malicious effect on thinking in my view.

Trump evolved from tweeting, which rapidly normalized bad thinking.

[Botany]

16. Already seeing some pretty major disruptions in USPS delivery in Cols., OH

The Republicans have been working to keep the pandemic going so they can blame
Joe Biden and the Dems.

[czarjak]

23. When cruelty is the point, ain't no mountain high enough, ain't no valley low enough.

[Jon King]

21. South Africa just announced Omicron comes and goes in record time!!!

Come on folks, good news, lest stop this super negative stuff!

“The speed with which the Omicron-driven fourth wave rose, peaked and then declined has been staggering,” said Fareed Abdullah of the South African Medical Research Council.

This wave will come and go fast, this along with the lowering from 10 days to 5 days for people with no symptoms to quarantine will help a ton.

And MOST people have no symptoms from Omicron. The hospital issues are terrible, BUT fairly isolated. Many areas of the country have zero issues of hospital crowding.

[Raine]

32. Totally agree plus

I'm more hopeful then I've been since the end of 2019 when all this stuff started.

[Thtwudbeme]

39. Can you please cite your source for "many areas of the country have zero issues with hospital

crowding?"

[Demsrule86]

44. Nothing to see here...just people running around with their hair on fire...

[Shanti Shanti Shanti]

37. 91% of people over 60 have been fully vaxxed x3 in my county, I stay away from young crowds, lol

Mandatory masks where I grocery shop, life is a risk, and it still goes on, no shortages, you can only do what u can to cut the risk

[Thtwudbeme]

40. I agree with this article. I don't understand why many DUers think everything

hinges on the "death rate" or "severity" of the virus.

Do you guys not understand that being sick means you cannot go to work? I wrote that about schools, and some even got mad at me- let me put it more clearly: If the teachers are out sick, or their family members are sick--- read that again--- if their family members are sick-- they will not be at work.

Subs are almost impossible to find.

The handwriting is on the wall for this "fast moving" virus- the next two months are going to be a shitshow- and it doesn't have to be.

We need to shut as much shit down as possible- asap.

One of the large charter school systems in NC (one of the good ones- a rarity) notified parents and staff that they were shutting down until the end of January YESTERDAY. My husband's work has gone back to mostly virtual. Try calling the IRS- they are virtual now.

The only thing that is going to be pure living hell is the denial that I see even here (I have my shots and wear masks- yeah, well so do I) that is preventing planning.

[Demsrule86]

43. Fear mongering.

[Thtwudbeme]

48. Due to lack of planning

Instead of calmly doing things like having schools go remote, mask mandates, etc- The US is choosing to act stupid.

It's going to be a shit show-

[Demsrule86]

51. My schools are remote...and I doubt it will be a shit show. Hospitals will be overcrowed with

with sick Anti-Vax idiots. But all evidence indicates that Omnicron will come and go fairly quickly and is not as lethal as other types...particularly if you are vaccinated.

[Thtwudbeme]

53. You DO realize that teachers with cold symptoms

will not be at work, right?

Where are your subs coming from?

Where are your sub bus drivers and cafeteria workers coming from?

I agree that this is going to be short- but, those 8 short weeks are going to be a bitch.

[Roisin Ni Fiachra]

61. It is just common sense to always be reasonably prepared for emergencies,

such as a natural disaster, or failure of the supply system.

Backup water, food, shelter, heat, light, medicine/first aid, pet food, communication, and entertainment are our basics.

[Pobeka]

70. # cases are no longer a good predictor of hospitalizations.

Some sort of immunity (vaxxed, infection) may well be playing a role.

NNadir posted a study from Denmark -- they're not seeing Omicron causing many hospitalizations.

The image below is for King County, WA (Seattle). Same thing. And, as a local resident I can tell you there are plenty of overweight folks in the region.




Here is the link for Marion County, IN (Indianapolis). Cases are skyrocketing, but the vax rate is lower. And hospitalizations are on the rise.
https://www.covidactnow.org/us/indiana-in/county/marion_county/?s=27551643


All that talk about getting vaxxed to protect yourself and others, guess what? It is working.

Science -- it's real.

[xmas74]

78. This frightens me.

They discovered a large mass on my ovary and said my uterus is enlarged.Ive been in pain but am still working. I have a referral for next week. Originally we we going to do a biopsy but my PCP stated that after the findings from Imaging she suspects they'll recommend a hysterectomy asap and do the biopsy during removal.

The news was a late birthday present,lol. I'm afraid that with these reports and my governor lifting all pandemic restrictions there won't be room for me when I needy surgery. I can't put this off for long.

[MissB]

87. Hope you're able to get surgery ASAP

[xmas74]

88. I hope so too

Thank you