The ideas and arguments that will define the next 12 months

[Celerity]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/12/30/year-in-preview-2022/



At this point in the coronavirus pandemic, each year is starting to feel more similar to the one before than we all might like. But despite the rise in case counts at the end of December and a certain sense of deja vu that came along with it, 2021 was different from 2020 in important ways — we’ve got ample vaccines, at least in the United States, and it seems possible to imagine a year that won’t be defined mostly by the virus and its associated political and policy challenges. Will 2022 be the one? For our sixth annual Year in Preview, Outlook asked Washington Post beat reporters and columnists to walk us through the ideas and arguments that will define the next 12 months.



The third year of the pandemic will be as unpredictable as the first two.

Year Two of the pandemic ended with dismaying news: Another new variant, potentially more transmissible than delta, had quickly hopscotched across the globe. Hospitalizations and deaths were nowhere near last winter’s levels but cases were still alarmingly high — in the United States, the seven-day average of daily cases reached a record Tuesday, at 266,889. What does that mean for the world’s third year contending with the coronavirus? If experts (and reporters) have learned anything, it’s never to make predictions about the virus — or underestimate it. Time after time, it has outsmarted the world’s top scientists and found new ways to infect people. And with numerous unanswered questions about the omicron variant, it remains unclear what exactly to expect, except that we aren’t going back to the pre-pandemic version of normal anytime soon.

The Biden administration is discovering that vaccines alone will not bring this pandemic under control, especially with a wide swath of the country refusing to get vaccinated, even though the shots are free and easily available. Omicron has infected many people who are vaccinated and even those who are boosted. The administration’s vaccine mandate for all businesses with more than 100 employees faces several legal challenges and may not survive the courts; it heads to the Supreme Court in January. Officials are leaning hard into booster shots — which have been shown to help protect against severe effects from the omicron variant — urging all adult Americans to receive one.

While officials have put more time and money into other tools to manage the pandemic, including rapid tests and antivirals, the country faces challenges on both fronts over the next few weeks. Antivirals will be critical in treating those who do become infected, but omicron can evade some of the most effective existing treatments. Two new easy-to-use pills were recently authorized by the FDA, but the most effective of them is expected to be in short supply over the coming weeks. Rapid tests can help prevent outbreaks from spinning out of control, allowing people to resume their daily activities more safely, but a surge in demand driven by omicron has caused shortages and backlogs. We also know how effective masks can be.

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