Clint Watts: "Where Did All the Insurrectionists Go?"

[Nevilledog]

Link to tweet

https://clintwatts.substack.com/p/where-did-all-the-insurrectionists?r=1dxl2&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

*snip*

One year after one of the darkest moments in American history, here are three trends in the domestic extremism landscape worth watching headed into 2022:

Extremist activity has largely shifted from national to local. Many Americans watched the sad state of U.S. democracy live on television last January 6. Unprecedented anti-government mobilization and violence at the nation’s Capitol seemed unthinkable to many. Over the past year, anti-government mobilization, intimidation, and violence has occurred in D.C. by one-off stochastic attackers (see April 2 and August 19), but anti-government resistance has moved from the nation’s capital to state capitals, from the National Mall to local vaccine distribution centers, and from Congressional meetings to school board meetings. National extremist groups—like the Proud Boys or Three Percenters—have continued splintering from national leadership throughout 2021. Local breakaway chapters of these organizations, however, continue to mobilize in their respective regions using variants of the national organization name or creating entirely new labels for their groups.

Younger white supremacists, neo-Nazis and incels are energized online and finding each other in the real world. Young white supremacist groups—both those known and newly formed—are revamping recruitment, coordinating online, and finding social media footholds on platforms that lack moderation. As noted in our post in March 2021 and repeatedly during FBI Director Wray’s testimony before Congress last year, racially and ethnically motivated violent extremism remains the top domestic terror threat in America far more likely to plot mass casualty events or carry out attacks against individual targets than other strains of extremism.

Anti-government sentiment and conspiracies collide. 2021 was rife with conspiracy theories and misinformation, from COVID-19 to vaccines to those still spreading lies about the results of the 2020 election. As the QAnon movement faded, these enthusiasts drifted toward other conspiracies, notably anti-vaccine groups. The most noteworthy shift throughout the year was the growing overlap between far-right groups engaging in real-world political mobilization and those motivated by conspiracy theories about COVID-19 or election results surfacing to protest against local governments. (Figure 5 - Local Mobilizers) For more on this ideological blurring, I recommend this Lawfare article.

*snip*

[Takket]

1. Are there any groups on this chart

That are not almost exclusively right wing/rethug white male terrorists?

[Bongo Prophet]

2. One small hexagram is labeled "Anti-fascist/Anarchist"

And "Stochastic Haters" is pretty vague. How does one count that?

So yeah, a very tiny bit.

[2naSalit]

3. Put that all in...

A cement mixer with some religious zealotry added in and spin!

Tada!

And here we are.