The economy is feeling the effects of the fading baby boom

[Celerity]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/01/07/economy-is-feeling-effects-fading-baby-boom/

https://archive.fo/gySAX



The good news from the jobs report released on Friday morning was that the unemployment rate dropped to 3.9 percent. As you may know, this is measured with a different survey than the one that tallies how many workers are employed, meaning that, at times, there can be a disconnection between the two figures. That was the case on Friday: Economists predicted that more jobs would be added, meaning that the numbers were lower than expected, but the decline in the unemployment rate was good news.

But there’s an important caveat to that unemployment rate number. It is calculated by figuring out how many of those who are working or looking for work don’t have jobs. But that means that if more people simply drop out of the labor force — that is, they aren’t looking for work — the unemployment rate can go down even without more people getting jobs.

A simple example is useful. Imagine 100 people, 80 of whom are working and 10 of whom are looking for work. The other 10 aren’t in the labor force. For this group, the unemployment rate is 11.1 percent — 10 out of the 90 people in the labor force aren’t working. Now imagine that five of those who are working and five of those who were looking drop out of the labor force, say, through retirement. Now there are five people unemployed out of 80 people in the labor force, so the unemployment rate drops to 6.3 percent, even though the number of people working has gone down from 90 to 85 of 100.



That’s not exactly what’s happening here. The labor force participation rate (the percentage of a population that’s working or looking for work) remained the same from November to December. But the participation rate in December was 1.5 percentage points lower than February 2020, meaning that there are fewer people in the labor pool and, therefore, meaning that the same number of unemployed people would lead to a lower unemployment rate. As you might expect, participation rates vary depending on age. Older Americans are more likely to have retired, so a lower percentage of that group is in the labor force at any given time. In recent years, the participation rate among those 55 and over has been fairly flat as the rate among those aged 25 to 54 has increased. (The graph below uses figures for January of each year, meaning that the value for 2020 excludes the effects of the pandemic.)



snip

[Sherman A1]

1. Good

It is time for many of the Boomer generation (of which I am part) to enjoy the benefits of their decades of working and retire. Those folks who want to stay in the workforce in whatever capacity should certainly be able to do so, but those who don't (myself included) should be able to retire in dignity.

[3Hotdogs]

2. I am of the "Silent Generation." I retired 16 years ago.

I took several part time jobs in order to fill time. Then I realized, I don't want to work anymore.

So I don't.

I get up and go hiking with my club, three or four days a week. I take an afternoon nap and stay up until 12 or 1 in the morning, correcting people on D.U. or watching YouTube stuff.

I'm not rich but house is paid off and I have a defined benefit pension.

[Sherman A1]

3. Good for you!

Defined benefits pensions are simply the best in my mind. I'm retired do a little volunteer work at a historic house in our area. Mostly do hobbies and putter around the house.

I get up early and post puns on DU in the Humor group to drive everyone crazy....

[3Hotdogs]

4. --- will you please stop driving me crazy?

[Sherman A1]

5. It is my calling!

[3Hotdogs]

7. Oh well.

[multigraincracker]

17. 30 and out, my union contract.

Had mine in at age 52 and have now been retired for 20 years.
Hobby businesses have kept me busy. Flipping antiques and cars keeps me active. Having no debt helped a lot. No car payments and no house payments for 20 years.

[JanMichael]

6. We also will have Defined Benefit Pensions (in 3 and 6 yrs) because we work in government positions.

Sadly the private sector has gone from about 60% having some type of defined benefit retirement scheme in 1980 to like less than 5% now (read that on CNN Money). It is mostly nothing or a Defined Contribution (401k) which is much less desirable (I.e. it is not realistic for the majority of people to save $2,000,000 or $4,000,000 in those accounts over their working life) for an employee. Plus people live longer so that number has to keep going up.

Since government employment is maybe 12% of the entire population that does not bode well for people born after 1960 (except for a fortunate few) and being able to retire comfortably (I.e. not have to worry about replacing a roof.).

It's like Billy Joel predicted not the Post WWII boom generations fate but those born after. Allentown's for everyone except the very well off.

Heck even Otto von Bismarck understood pensions and their importance...

[Celerity]

9. Retirement benefits access rates for private industry workers, March 2020

https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2021/67-percent-of-private-industry-workers-had-access-to-retirement-plans-in-2020.htm

[Scrivener7]

8. Just retired last year and have had a year where I have been very busy due to

multiple terrible family events (I am fine, my loved ones have been through it though, and have needed help which I am so happy to be able to give.)

But after all of it, I feel like my retirement is just REALLY beginning now. A hiking club sounds like a fabulous idea.

[CrispyQ]

13. "...correcting people on D.U."

That sounds like a full time job.

[marybourg]

15. I think "luckiest generation " is a more apt name.

[Scrivener7]

10. Us retiring is a great thing for those younger than us. It gives the worker the advantage.

I hope they press that advantage hard.

And it looks like it isn't a big change year over year.

[bullwinkle428]

12. I was born in 1964, and I am the YOUNGEST of the six of us in our little

department, working in research and development for a division of a multi-national manufacturing organization. All of us have been there for several decades.

As you can imagine, a veritable shit-load of knowledge and experience, and for years, I've been under the impression that management is utterly clueless about what they're going to lose in a few short years, when each of us make the decision to "hang up our tools".

[CrispyQ]

14. I would have retired at 55 if I could have gone on Medicare.

I know a few individuals who are still working just for health benefits.

[ProfessorGAC]

16. 60 For Me

I was 60 when i realized how much was in my 401k & 401a.
My pension was higher than i thought it was, too.
But, i waited for 62 so i could do 18 months of COBRA & 15 months of individual coverage. (The company covered 2 months, post retirement).
If i would have been Medicare eligible, i would have given the company 2 months to find a replacement, not 2 years.