The Democrats' Hispanic Voter Problem: It's Not As Bad As You Think--It's Worse

[Celerity]

https://theliberalpatriot.substack.com/p/the-democrats-hispanic-voter-problem-dfc

By Ruy Teixeira (Center for American Progress, Brookings Institution, etc)

The Democrats are steadily losing ground with Hispanic voters. The seriousness of this problem tends to be underestimated in Democratic circles for a couple of reasons: (1) they don’t realize how big the shift is; and (2) they don’t realize how thoroughly it undermines the most influential Democratic theory of the case for building their coalition. On the latter, consider that most Democrats like to believe that, since a relatively conservative white population is in sharp decline while a presumably liberal nonwhite population keeps growing, the course of social and demographic change should deliver an ever-growing Democratic coalition. It is simply a matter of getting this burgeoning nonwhite population to the polls.

But consider further that, as the Census documents, the biggest single driver of the increased nonwhite population is the growth of the Hispanic population. They are by far the largest group within the Census-designated nonwhite population (19 percent vs. 12 percent for blacks). While their representation among voters considerably lags their representation in the overall population, it is fair to say that voting trends among this group will decisively shape voting trends among nonwhites in the future since their share of voters will continue to increase while black voter share is expected to remain roughly constant.

It therefore follows that, if Hispanic voting trends continue to move steadily against the Democrats, the pro-Democratic effect of nonwhite population growth will be blunted, if not cancelled out entirely, and that very influential Democratic theory of the case falls apart. That could—or should—provoke quite a sea change in Democratic thinking. Turning to the nature and size of recent Hispanic shifts against the Democrats—it’s not as bad as you think, it’s worse. Here are ten points drawn from available data about the views and voting behavior of this population. Read ‘em and weep.

1. In the most recent Wall Street Journal poll, Hispanic voters were split evenly between Democrats and Republicans in the 2022 generic Congressional ballot. And in a 2024 hypothetical rematch between Trump and Biden, these voters favored Biden by only a single point. This is among a voter group that favored Biden over Trump in 2020 by 26 points according to Catalist (two party vote).

snip

much, much more at the link, a tonne of data, this is not just one poll

[Lovie777]

1. Nope ....

[Celerity]

2. nope what?

[brooklynite]

6. Denying facts is a safety bubble...

New data helps explain Trump’s gains among Latino voters in 2020

Conventional wisdom long dictated that if Latino voters show up to vote, they will overwhelmingly support Democrats. But a recent report with more details on the 2020 election results suggests the reality is more complicated.

It was clear after the election that Trump had made gains among Latino voters in places like Florida’s Miami-Dade County and Texas’s Rio Grande Valley. The newest and most detailed data yet shows that the trend was nationwide. According to a recent report by the Democratic data firm Catalist, the number of Latinos who cast votes increased by 31 percent from 2016 to 2020, accounting for a 10th of the electorate. A comfortable majority of Latinos — an estimated 61 percent — supported President Joe Biden, but there was about an 8 percentage-point swing toward Trump, based on data on votes cast for either the Democratic or Republican nominees in 2016 and 2020.

The data shows that many Latino voters, who represent the fastest-growing share of the electorate, are not firmly part of the Democratic base. Instead, they seem to be persuadable voters, presenting a potential opportunity for both Democrats and Republicans. This is especially true for voters who aren’t hyperpartisan: new and infrequent voters, as well as people who flipped their votes in 2020 or who decided to sit the election out entirely.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/22436307/catalist-equis-2020-latino-vote-trump-biden-florida-texas

Personally, I think too many Democrats see latinos as a monolithic voting block who all care about immigration reform. They don't and we need a broader message.

[Celerity]

10. the valid point you raised is dealt with in the article, and I agree with you

Personally, I think too many Democrats see latinos as a monolithic voting block who all care about immigration reform. They don't and we need a broader message.

[LeftInTX]

13. We aren't gonna win the Irish-American vote by bringing people from Ireland here.

[uponit7771]

3. I'd like to see a confirming poll, 26 points is a hard shift with few to no factors behind it

[Freddie]

9. Abortion and "socialism"

We’re not going to change on the first thing, but many in that group have a very bad history with “socialism”, which of course to the Repugs anything we like is socialism.

[Mad_Machine76]

15. What do we do about the "Socialism" accusations?!

How do you defend against a virtually unprovable and unquantifiable claim? Like you said, Republicans make fact-free accusations of "socialism" against Democrats the minute that any of us suggest that we make life easier for everybody.

[NutmegYankee]

19. I respond to being called a socialist by labeling the other party a Nazi.

And I do it without shame. That’s our weakness. We care. The savage monsters on the right don’t.

[Cosmocat]

21. Facists

the sooner Dems get into the game and ACCURATELY cast Rs are crazy ass facists, the better, cause as much as people want to think people like "positive" campaigning, end of the day they react more strongly to what SCARES THEM.

And, if Ds used the term facists as routinely as Rs babble about socialists, it would level that playing field.

[Celerity]

11. the article contains far more data and reasoning than just one poll

[LeftInTX]

4. Pretty much sums it up

Democrats need to look at Latinos as "ethnic Americans" with much less emphasis on race and much less emphasis on "where they came from"

[blm]

5. GOP has been diligently spreading propaganda

against Democrats in their communities. Democratic message machine to combat these QAnon style attacks is practically nonexistent

[Hav]

7. I don't think we'll see such a big

jump as indicated by that one poll towards Repubs but this is definitely a concern that cannot be ignored just because we don't like it.
It seems braindead slogans like "Defund the police" contribute to that development.

[CrispyQ]

18. Forty years of the GOP claiming to be the party of God doesn't help either.

Rev up the country over abortion, get a few "dems are pedophiles" CT's to go viral, add "defund the police," & yeah, it's happening. They are shifting.

[Fullduplexxx]

8. Then they will get the facism they voted for

Y

[malaise]

12. It's a product of US foreign policy

That simple

[Hortensis]

14. In 2020 38% of Hispanics voters chose tRump's authoritarian populism.

And all that comes with it. Including armed government thugs banging on the doors of undocumented Hispanics.

That leaves the more moderate conservative and the liberal members of the various Hispanic/Latino demographics... Who are being swamped with the same anti-Democratic poisons everyone else is.

We don't need to go read articles about others to be alarmed, though. We have our own front seat to observe how they're subverting the will of potential voters.

[dsp3000]

16. Right wing propaganda is HUGE in spanish and other immigrant communities

My parents and their generation listen to the vietnamese equivalent of alex jones.
They all go unchecked by twitter, youtube, facebook etc.

[Klaralven]

20. Hispanics are not all "people of color" - hence the confusion in the original article

Hispanic or Latino Origin

About

The Ethnicity estimates of the population are produced for the United States, states, and counties by the Population Esimates Program and the ethnicity estimates of the population are produced for Puerto Rico, muncipios (county-equivalents for Puerto Rico), places, zona urbanas and comunidades (place-equivalents for Puerto Rico), and minor civil divisions by the American Community Survey.

The U.S. Census Bureau adheres to the U.S. Office of Management and Budget’s (OMB) definition of ethnicity. There are two minimum categories for ethnicity: Hispanic or Latino and Not Hispanic or Latino. OMB considers race and Hispanic origin to be two separate and distinct concepts. Hispanics and Latinos may be of any race. Thus, the percent Hispanic should not be added to percentages for racial categories.

Definition

Hispanics or Latino refers to a person of Cuban, Mexican, Puerto Rican, South or Central American, or other Spanish culture or origin regardless of race. This includes people who reported detailed Hispanic or Latino groups such as:

https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/note/US/RHI725219

[dalton99a]

22. Solid article.

Texas Hispanics have been trending right, and Republicans and Evangelicals have been making serious inroads - not many care about BLM or abortion rights or gun control.

[PortTack]

23. Hispanic Americans many who are catholic..problem #1, prefer a "strong man" leader, problem #2

Problem #1 and #2 go hand in hand, not much you can change there. #3 they are very tribal. #4 many here want the country locked down with no immigration thinking immigrants will take their jobs. Sadly they see it as I have mine the rest, I don’t care what happens to them

Not much one can do about any of these.

Beto is planning on campaigning in the south of his state along the rio grande in heavily Hispanic populated areas, we’ll see how successful he is.

It’s sad to think many fled here from Central America to escape the dictator types, only to want a strong man dictator type....

Make that make sense, or how to change it????!!!

[Celerity]

24. Even worse is the explosion of Hispanics switching from Catholic to radical fundie evangelical

Hispanic evangelicals are the fastest growing religious group in the US as of now, and are more more likely to vote Rethug, be even more forced-birther, and more likely to espouse RW ideology.

I have posted on this multiple times.

The US Latino/Hispanic population is now majority NON Catholic, the first time ever in history for a large Latino/Hispanic population on the planet.

[PortTack]

27. On a brighter note...for the first time in our country 's history, more ppl do not ID with a

Religious affiliation than do.

[Celerity]

28. a trend we can but hope continues to grow larger

[GemState]

35. To dim the brighter note a little bit

The “Religiously Non-Affiliated” is the social circle I inhabit. Some are on the Liberal/Progressive spectrum but an equal number are Ayn Rand-ish libertarians.

[dalton99a]

29. "Defund the Police" and "Open Borders" caused major damage in the last cycle

Hispanics - whether in DFW or in the Valley - are afraid of criminals and don't want uncontrolled immigration

[Demovictory9]

36. 2 days ago the new ny mayor confirmed non citizens will be voting. Faux news ran with it

That 800 000 non citizens will be legally voting... Faux news loves this stuff.. Their listeners are outragef

[jcmaine72]

25. I'm not surprised by this.

As I believe I've mentioned here before, I have a RW Latino co-worker who blames every crime committed in this nation on "libruls" and their alleged soft-on-crime-policies. He's walking crime blotter. Every day he takes delight in the telling of harrowing true crime tales from blue cities/states exclusively (As if crime never occurs in red states/cities). The so-called "smash and grab" crimes committed in states like California are a particular favorite of his now, as are the crimes committed by people released under our state's bail reform legislation.

Policies like Bail Reform and "Raise The Age" have benefited many poor, underprivileged Latinos who otherwise would not have gotten a fair shake in our criminal justice system, but he doesn't see things that way. However, I just ignore him for the most part. I learned long ago you can't reason with a RW a-hole, no matter what their race/ethnicity.

There's also this creepy ex-army guy that lives on my block who is also Latino. He flies an American flag outside his front door and used to have pro-Trump signs prominently featured on his lawn, and without a hint of irony, I might add. I don't know this person very well (only by sight, actually) but another neighbor told me last year that he was hoping someone would "mess with his Trump signs" so that "he could hurt them". Yep, sounds exactly like the quintessential Scump supporter to me.

As someone mentioned upthread, Latinos are not a monolith. I honestly don't know what anyone, Latino or not, could ever possibly see in the ReThug party, but it's definitely not something we're going to overcome with a one-size-fits-all approach, that's for sure.

[andym]

33. Mayor Adams (D) won in NYC by being tough on crime

It's something that Democrats aren't necessarily against, so perhaps a few prominent Democrats being tough on crime would help.

[UTUSN]

26. from Point #10 in the link:

******QUOTE********

.... 10. It is hard to avoid the conclusion that Democrats have seriously erred by lumping Hispanics in with “people of color” and assuming they embraced the activism around racial issues that dominated so much of the political scene in 2020, particularly in the summer. This was a flawed assumption. The reality of the Hispanic population is that they are, broadly speaking, an overwhelmingly working class, economically progressive, socially moderate constituency that cares above all, about jobs, the economy and health care.

For example, in the post-election wave of the Democracy Fund Voter Study Group (VSG) panel survey, well over 70 percent of Hispanic voters rated jobs, the economy, health care and the coronavirus as issues that were “very important” to them. No other issues even came close to this level. Crime as an issue rated higher with these voters than immigration or racial equality, two issues that Democrats assumed would clear the path to big gains among Hispanic voters.

Consistent with this, Latino voters evinced little sympathy with the more radical demands that came to be associated with the Black Lives Matter movement. In VSG data, despite showing support for some specific policing reforms, Hispanics opposed defunding the police, decreasing the size of police forces and the scope of their work and reparations for the descendants of slaves by 2:1 or more. The findings about relatively positive Hispanic attitudes toward police have been confirmed by poll after poll, as concern about crime in their communities has spiked. ....

*********UNQUOTE*******

[PortTack]

30. Thinking a little further about this...I'm not sure we should try and change their minds

Their heritage is patriarchal and has been for centuries

The upcoming 2nd, 3rd generations and beyond will see it differently than their parents and grandparents. Hopefully we still have a democracy by then!

We tried to force native Americans to accept our way of life and it was disastrous

[Elessar Zappa]

31. I think it's regional.

Here in New Mexico Hispanics still favor Democrats by a pretty big margin. Texas and Florida seem to be the two states where Hispanic movement toward the GOP is the strongest, just based on my observations.

[PortTack]

32. Thx for the insight. Agree completely

[obamanut2012]

34. We have a lot of Cuban Americans in SOFL

They skew RW.

[dalton99a]

37. 62 percent would vote for Trump again

as of March 2021