Dumb Question: How would Putin Invade the Urkaine?

[brettdale]

Is it literally, send in tanks and go to their parliament?

Is it bombing?

What does her expect to happen???

[cachukis]

1. Help is already there; planted.

[Doodley]

2. Putin takes a celebrity to run for office who garners support by playing on right-wing grievances...

[Dan]

3. Sounds like a rehash of the 2016 election in America.

[Xolodno]

4. I'd say it depends on the consequences.

But putting that slightly aside...

1. Takes all of Ukraine, no chance in hell. Portion of Ukrainians in the western part sided with the Nazi's. Call a Russian a Nazi, and you'll wake up from a coma sometime later in the hospital.

2. Goes all the way to the Dnieper river, seizes Kiev and in the south, hooks up with Transnistria. Definitely possible, if the consequences are the same for a lesser offense.

3. As number two, but does not take Kiev. Definitely possible.

4. Seizes Luhansk and Donbas and gets a land bridge to Crimea. Most likely scenario. But again, if the consequences are the same as No. 2, all bets are off.

5. Simply just moves into the regions already controlled by the rebellion. Highly unlikely. As this could be done without a mass army building a 100 miles away, and with that said...

6. No invasion. Also a strong possibility. All this was at most a dog and pony show to gauge NATO and the US. But the forces don't leave. And in the spring, construction equipment and supplies suddenly appear where they are massing to create a permanent base....which could invade at any time, particularly if Ukraine undergoes another crisis.

7. No invasion. And they pull back again. Highly unlikely. But, I don't know everything they know.

As you can see there are numerous options, and a lot depends what the consequences will be from Europe and slightly on the USA. Sure dropping them from the SWIFT system would be detrimental in the short run, but both Russia and China have competing systems that can bypass that. Add lemon and salt to the wound, the EU won't be happy about the USA dictating who can and can't be in this financial system, so it can come back to bite us in the ass later.

Complicating matters, Ukraine is a bit of a mess and made more so since the Maiden. I could go further, but I don't want to write a novel on these issues. But you have seven scenario's...and there could be more we are just not aware of. But to add a bit of perspective, your average French, German, Romanian, etc. guy isn't willing to die on a hill that's called Ukraine.

[Klaralven]

5. One new border could be straight north from Moldova, omitting the 8 western oblasts

Last edited Thu Jan 20, 2022, 10:25 AM - Edit history (1)

I think this roughly corresponds to the historic border between Russia and Austria Hungary.

Another possibility is along a line north of the main pipeline from the Karkhiv gas hub to Romania. This takes southeast Ukraine and the Black Sea coast.

The least territory that makes sense is to go to a line west of the Donbas provinces and north of the coast to Kherson. This restores the rail and ports network for the Donbas and the gas pipeline from near Voronezh to Rostov on Don, plus the water supply for Crimea.