Say goodbye to Virginia as a State Democrats can win

[edhopper]

If anybody wondered what kind of Government Youngkin and his Legislatures would run, this week shows it will be another Trumpian State that will take elections by hook or by crook.
I suppose some in Virginia believed he was moderate. That's because too many voters are fools. And too many Democrats stayed home.
Bye Democracy.

[peggysue2]

1. Virginia should be an object lesson for Dems

We can whine and howl and carry on about how disappointed we are and stay home.

Or,

We can fight like hell in the next round and the next. Because unless we do, unless we flood the polls like there's no tomorrow?

There won't be.

Trump in a sweater vest is still . . . Trumpism and everything the Squatter-in Chief conjured up.

Think things are bad now? Just let the GOP take power.

You either stand for democracy. Or you do not. No in-between, no gray area.

[Cha]

14. TY Peggysue! A life and death

cautionary tale.. GOTV DEMS.. even if it's not all you want.

Do you like Fascism? No? Then GOTV..!!!

[rockfordfile]

18. I agree

[cinematicdiversions]

20. Or maybe vote....

I mean if democrats came out to vote thus would not be an issue.

[tirebiter]

2. Love forlorned

[helpisontheway]

3. Right..Likely to be a red state in midterms and probably 2024. Sucks

but Youngkin will probably do some crooked shit plus independents (and some Dems) are fooled by his different kind of Republican act. Took Virginia for granted but I think it will shift back red like Florida.

[Amishman]

61. VA will stay purple IMO, Florida is not a good comparison

Florida's red shift is driven by retirees and our losing ground with Hispanic voters - especially Cubans.

VA is just purple state flux, and more comparable to PA. A few blue metro areas with deep red in much of the rest of the state.

[JI7]

4. There are also people that see a Democrat in the White House as a sort of "Insurance"

so they are willing to vote for shitty republicans to send a message or some other bs because they are upset with critical race theory , schools being closed etc .

[brooklynite]

5. Mind if I spoil your pity party?

Votes are tallied by County Election Boards which are equally divided between Democrats and Republicans. Whatever you think of Youngkin, he can't arbitrarily throw out election results; neither can the Attorney General. And Virginia won't be coming up with new election rules, because Democrats still control the State Senate.

[onenote]

8. +1

[Celerity]

23. Just an FYI, the Rethugs may well take back the VA Senate in 2023.

Time will tell.

[BradAllison]

24. They're gonna shoot their load too early

This AG opening his mouth about Roe V Wade and Youngkin showing his true colors will probably motivate Dems back to the polls.

[vercetti2021]

25. I agree

If they go extreme, it'll end up with them losing the house of delegates. But I'm tired of seeing here all of sudden. Virginia is going to go hard right red like Florida. Like based on what? Like people here are way too much into doom and gloom now

[Celerity]

26. let us all hope so, VA, CO, & MN have been my battlemap nightmares (if they start going Red)

[vercetti2021]

27. Colorado is never gonna flip to red

I don't get all of sudden why all these blue states would suddenly turn into Florida.

[BradAllison]

28. I wouldn't worry about Colorado

Aside from some really horrid districts willing to elect a total cabbagehead like Meth Muppet Bobert, I think they will continue to get bluer.

Minnesota troubles me, but I still think the Twin Cities are the overall key.

Virginia was a burp. This guy is already overstepping the ground he was sadly given, he's obviously just another far right chucklehead who'll be massively unpopular by summer.

[vercetti2021]

29. And look at how they vote there

Democratic president = Con gov
Con president = Democratic Gov.

[llmart]

38. +1

...just for the term "Meth Muppet Bobert".

[onenote]

59. If the repubs take back the state Senate in 2023

it won't be because republicans restricted voting access in the state. it will be because we didn't convince enough voters to support our candidates.

[Mad_Machine76]

42. Exactly

Not saying that we should let up on the gas, but let's not write our political epitath there. I mean, Republicans occasionally get elected in other solid Blue bastions like Massachusetts. It doesn't mean it's at any real risk of going hardcore Republican like, say, Florida or Indiana, or Texas.

[Celerity]

6. I think it is far too soon to remotely make that call. 2022 aside, IF we (POTUS race) lose VA, we

are in trouble overall in 2024 (and not just solely as a trend predictor).

IF VA, GA, NC, and FL go Rethug (VA going Rethug makes those other 3 more likely), we will need to SWEEP these 8 states, and many of them likely may well have trifecta Rethug control at state level (Governor and both chambers) post 2022 (thus the ability for massive shenanigans by the Rethugs in terms of voter suppression and EC slates that ignore popular vote totals).

[Sympthsical]

9. I'm not sure Wisconsin can be salvaged at this time

The GOP has been going to absolute town on arranging elections to their taste in that state. As a native Midwesterner, it has been absolutely bizarre to watch.

Once we see 2022 shake out, we'll have a better idea, but I don't have a massive amount of hope for the state for the next cycle.

[Celerity]

11. I was trying to be as generous as possible, I too worry a lot about (from those 8 I left open)

pretty much all of them, save for for CO, especially IF (now I do move to a trend) we lose GA, FL, NC, AND VA, with VA being the true warning bell, followed by NC.

I will make this (somewhat obvious) call now: IF we lose both VA and CO, it will be a wipe-out, a Red Wave landside. Bye bye Democracy.

[Sympthsical]

48. I still think we should have won Virginia

McAulliffe just failed to read that room in one of the more egregious ways I've seen in the closing month of the campaign. Yes, there was the CRT stuff and school closings, but I think what crystallized it far too much was that father whose daughter was sexually assaulted by another student. The district tried to downplay it and cover it up. When the father went to the board meeting and demanded accountability, he was arrested for shouting at them.

The board and its supporters went with, "Oh, look at these right-wingers going after our school boards!" (which hey, is a problem). But this was not that person. Slandering him as such with video that ran nationally was such an egregiously stupid move, parents and suburbanites were getting riled.

Then McAulliffe just went all in on the wrong side of that moment. His last campaign event with the teacher's union was a red flag in front of the bull after that "parents shouldn't have a say in what is taught" comment.

Pissed off suburbanites will swing close elections, and it felt like it was something he was trying to do - piss them off.

Severely clumsy politics.

[Celerity]

50. "parents shouldn't have a say in what is taught" was a massive cock-up. pure gift to the RWer

[onenote]

7. McAuliffe got more votes than any Democratic candidate

for governor in history -- 150,000 more than Northam got while winning in 2017.

The problem was that Republicans figured out that instead of fighting with one another, they would join forces behind a candidate.

Democrats can still win in Virginia.

By the way, do you live in Virginia?

[Sympthsical]

10. And Youngkin won the most votes of any governor in Virginia history, Republican or Democrat

So, not sure it means anything either way. Population increase, etc.

But anything could have shifted that race. I think a better Democratic candidate would've won it. McAuliffe's choices in words and actions were absolutely baffling. It's like he was trying to lose. He simply failed to read the room.

My best guess is a kind of insider hubris. I think someone else who came up through state government and was really hungry for it would've fared us better.

[onenote]

15. Turn out was up by over 7.7 percent.

First time it was over 50 percent since 1993. That's not because of "population increase."

I agree that McAuliffe turned out to be a bad candidate -- or more precisely, to have run a bad campaign. He ran away from Northam and from the state's accomplishments over the previous four years and instead allowed it to be a campaign about his performance as governor from 2014-2018 -- a position he won only because of the presence of a third party Libertarian candidate in the race.

But the fact that he could still get 150,000 more votes than Northam shows that there is still a viable Democratic party in the state.

[LENNY0229]

32. It was due to the Indy swing to the R. VA almost always goes to the party not in the WHite House.

[Sympthsical]

49. That's the etc. bit

Saying the most votes for a Democrat doesn't mean much when the opponent got the most votes for a Republican. Kind of washes out, don't you think? At least in terms of significance.

There is absolutely still a viable Democratic party in the state. I think we would've won with someone else.

What gives me some pause is that the Lt. Governor and AG races also went the way they went. Those two are not subtle in their ideologies the way Youngkin attempted to be.

[LENNY0229]

33. It was due to the Indy swing to the R. McAuliffe did not run a "bad" campaign. He OUTPERFORMED!

Yes, he made a few mistakes and one bad gaffe. But VA almost always goes to the party not in
the White House. McCauliffe got more votes than any Dem in history there.
But R's were ginned up, and it was the heavy Indy swing to the R that
did it. McCauliffe is partly at fault for that due to the education issue gaffe. BUT, it was also due
to inflation frustration, the historical trend, and that after two Dem terms people tend to want change.
Those are structural things not McCauliffe's fault.

[LENNY0229]

35. Of course he talked about his record as he should have. He made ONE bad gaffe. Not a bad candidate.

McCauliffe did make some mistakes, and the education gaffe was bad. It was taken out of context, but what he said was also badly worded and timed.

That said, he OVERPERFORMED and got more votes than any Dem ever. However, due to the scary Indy swing to the R,
he lost by a few points.

The education gaffe was part of that, but inflation frustration, people simply wanting change after two Dem terms,
and that VA almost always goes to the party not in the White House were structural issues not McCauliffe's fault.

[onenote]

46. He should have talked about continuing the success of past years of Democratic control

of both the state house and the legislature.

He never did. He didn't talk about the budget surplus. He didn't talk about the fact that violent crime in Virginia is below the national average. He didn't talk about the fact Virginia is rated as having one of the top school systems in the country. He played defense most of the campaign.

The reality is, given the mood of the country, independent voters are suspicious of career politicians, and that's what McAuliffe was perceived as, while Youngkin fed into the outsider sentiment.

[LENNY0229]

51. He won more votes than any other Dem in the history of VA but it was a tough historical trend.

McCauliffe nearly won the race even with that huge Indy gap.

I say again that McCauliffe made come mistakes, but he also did a lot of things right.

The education issue gaffe in that debate was the worst mistake.

But no "bad candidate" outperforms and gets so close against such huge historical odds.

The R's were ginned up, and in VA the party in the White House almost always loses the governorship.

It was an uphill battle against

the historical trend and especially in the situation of high inflation. It was ALWAYS the R's race to lose.

It would have been a big UPSET against the historial trend if the Dem had won that office for a third

term in a row.

[onenote]

54. "history" doesn't decide elections. Voters do.

And Virginia republicans, who have been divided between hard right and more suburban moderates in recent elections decided to unite behind Youngkin. And independents also shifted towards Youngkin, not because history said that they were supposed to, but because they preferred an "outsider" candidate to a career politician.

[JudyM]

56. Completely agree.

Entitlement, IMO. Should’ve worked his ass off instead of thinking he was going to glide back in.

We have worked out butts off to turn VA blue, and it may be close, but my sense is if we do strong, clear messaging and fire those turnout engines up all the way, we’ll be ok.

[Initech]

12. Fuck Glen Youngkin!

And fuck everyone who voted for him!

[LENNY0229]

34. He won fair and square. Sucks but true. So, WIN THE NEXT ONE!

VA almost always goes to the party not in the White House. The Dem almost won a third term in a row for Dems there. He overperformed winning the most of any Dem in history there. It was the big swing of Indies to the R that lost VA for us by just a few points. Need to win the next one, and show VA folks the ROTTEN things the R's are now doing there.

[Emile]

37. Have they changed the voting laws where they decide which votes were cast legally?

[LENNY0229]

52. Only proposed laws right now. Not acted on yet. Let it play out. Also, the DOJ is suing states

over these draconian voter suppression laws, and there will be court challenges as well.

[onenote]

58. Virginia expanded voting access in the past two years

And the Democratic-controlled state senate immediately killed republican efforts to roll back those laws.

So, if the state senate is lost, it won't be because of new restrictions on voting access. It will be because we don't convince enough voters to support our candidates.

[Fiendish Thingy]

13. Educate yourself on the past 40 years of VA elections.

The newly elected presidents party always loses the governors race.

[krispos42]

40. They said that was true for New Jersey as well...

...except that we kept New Jersey this year. Barely, but the pattern was broken.

[NYC Liberal]

44. Sounds like overall we did much better than expected then.

One state maintained the status quo of the past 40 years.

The other we were able to break the pattern.

[UTUSN]

16. "Too many Dem voters stay home" - and that's the key to everything.

[vercetti2021]

17. I doubt it will swing that badly back to red red

Like I know it's like doom and gloom porn and all

[DFW]

19. As long as Fairfax County still has literate people, Virginia will never be a lost cause.

You'd have to have armed guards killing people at polling places before Fairfax county goes red. If people stay home, we can't help that, but if a candidate or a campaign inspires them, we win Virginia back.

[58Sunliner]

21. I question whether he actually won. He was declared the winner by 2%.

What do pukes do? Cheat. And the fact that the extra votes came from outlying areas, is even more suspicious, since they are repuke leaning. The goal is to not give that MOFO one effing inch unless we have to. I intend to call his office daily and let him know what I think. Would not surprise me if he thinks he will run in 2024. The goal should be to hamstring this pos as much as possible to do what the pukes do-paint him as a problematic do nothing gov.

[Celerity]

22. That is too tin foil for me. I think he clearly won.

[58Sunliner]

43. Too tin foil for republicans who see control of Va as a means to their reich come 2024?

We already know they would go to any length to win. How can anyone trust anything the repukes do. I read an interview with Jimmy Carter who recalled ballot box stuffing when he ran for gov. He had to sue to get the votes disqualified to win.

[Celerity]

45. Yes, because there were multiple safeguards still in place for this last VA election. Dems were

in control of the Governorship, we had control of both state chambers, and each area has a bi-partisan election board.

We had legal teams all over it as well.


So yep, it is too tinfoil for me, sorry.

[58Sunliner]

62. Had to post this. LOL.

Link to tweet

[Celerity]

63. So? He was caught doing so. I brook no truck with these conspiracy theories you are attempting

to weave. You are attempting to undermine confidence in an election that was held under mostly Democratic control, and apparently the main reason is because you do like the outcomes. I do not like the outcomes myself, but I am not about to posit that our party was either complicit or so inept that we allowed the main elected positions to be stolen via massive election fraud that we were powerless to stop and/or counter. Go find another person to fob these theories off on, as they will not work with me.

[58Sunliner]

64. Please. I may disagree with you, but don't bother trying to gaslight me.

"You are attempting to undermine confidence in an election that was held under mostly Democratic control, and apparently the main reason is because you do like the outcomes." Not sure how you assume that bs. I don't think our party was complicit either.

[Celerity]

66. I am most definitely not the one trying to gaslight on anything. nt

[58Sunliner]

67. I guess you should re-read your post. You have a nice day.

[LENNY0229]

30. I don't think so.

[LENNY0229]

31. I don't think so.

[Busterscruggs]

36. There are several red counties

That want to leave VA for WV. If they would go, that would help to consolidate the blue counties left that all hold compatible values and voting patterns. Put those people out west with the WV hill people where they belong

[krispos42]

39. 4 years ago, conservatives were rallying in large numbers...

...against a variety of gun-control bills that were among the first bills introduced in the new legislative session. Several of them were, on their faces, reasonable and could be promoted as genuine "gun safety" bills.

But of course the Democrats included a ban on "assault weapons". Because, you know, taking the pistol grip off an AR-15 will save thousands of lives a year.

Anyway, all but the AWB passed. And now Virginia is in the hands of Trumplicans.

So, as soon as the SCOTUS guts abortion rights, Virginia will be putting in a six-week abortion ban. And gutting voting rights, locking in their electoral college votes for Republicans as well as two Senate seats. And to keep themselves amused in the meanwhile, they'll pass bills on transgender discrimination, gay and lesbian discrimination, climate change, sex education, and God knows what else in order to turn Virginia into Florida or Texas.

And they'll probably repeal the gun-control bills that passed, too.

But hey, pistol grips, right?

[LENNY0229]

53. Just what do these "conservatives" conserve? Not money. Not democracy. Not the environment. Not

decency. Not anything Jesus would support. Not sanity. Not truth. Not reality.

All I see them "conserving" is idiocy, lies, racism, and tax cuts for billionaires.

So why calll them "conservative" when they are radical right wing Trump Culitists?

[krispos42]

68. Whatever they are, they just voted out Dems and voted in Trump Cultists. n/t

[vercetti2021]

55. Relax

Hes shooting his wad.too soon. People will end up swinging the house back to the dems.

[krispos42]

69. Yeah, right.

That's why the protestors from a couple of years ago all stayed home. They had "time to relax".

Oh, wait, that's not it. They read the Democratic Party platform about gun control, saw it being attempted in their state, and turned out to vote months or years later.

[Norbert]

41. I call BS

Kentucky elected tRump-lite Matt Bevin governor in 2015. They sent him packing in 2019. And Kentucky is a far redder state than Virginia.

[BannonsLiver]

47. No. I won't.

[budkin]

57. Nope

Sorry.

[Tommymac]

60. No way.

Virginia is very much still in play.

We have control of the State Senate so Youngkin will not be able to run wild for very long.

Watching him crumble is going to be fun.

[SKKY]

65. Hey, they fucked around, and now they're gonna find out.