Mourdock's odds of victory dropped 50 points in 36 hours

[kpete]

Two major blows have befallen the Republicans since August. First, Todd Akin's campaign imploded over his statement that women rarely get pregnant from "legitimate rape." Now, Senate candidate Richard Mourdock in Indiana is watching his luck nosedive after stating that "even when life begins in that horrible situation of rape, that it is something that God intended to happen." Under the Signal's prediction model, his odds of victory have plummeted 50 points in 36 hours.





http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/signal/indiana-senate-race-now-leaning-democrat-mourdock-abortion-210109114.html
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/25/1150395/-Mourdock-s-odds-of-victory-dropped-50-points-in-36-hours

[flamingdem]

1. I love that chart

[Zambero]

5. Mourdock's in good company

Other past & present members of the Democrats' Senate retention firewall team: Angle, Buck, O'Donnell, Akin, Mandel...

Karl Rove is NOT amused.

[still_one]

2. Every women in Indiana should vote against this freak

[oldhippydude]

28. Madge Overholtser's revenge.... n/t

[DefenseLawyer]

35. Madge's original revenge was pretty damn spectacular

bringing down the entire corrupt state government and the klan from her deathbed.

[oldhippydude]

36. yes indeed.... n/t

[Politicalboi]

3. This shit should get more attention

Because if Rmoney wins, this will be the law. Obama needs more commercials with Ryan saying it doesn't matter how you got pregnant. And Rmoney saying he would get rid of Roe v Wade.

[mucifer]

4. so is this a senate seat we didn't think we'd get?

[Zambero]

7. It's been considered in play

with polls running nearly even, until now that is.

[Bake]

37. I never thought we'd get Indiana

It's the Mississippi of the Midwest. But now, I'm optimistic!



Bake

[Zambero]

41. I'm in Idaho, "Mississippi of the West"

This place is rife with the knee-jerk red state mentality. One party rule does not serve citizens well here. Hopefully they might begin to realize it, but it won't be this year.

[Ruby the Liberal]

10. I don't recall seeing this on the 'list'

as in list of either contested seats, or non contested where we thought we would pick up one.

Open to correction, but this is startling!

[INdemo]

20. Donnelly has been slightly ahead by maybe 1-2 points

..Republicans holding grudge because Teabaggers pushed this guy through and defeated their moderate Republican.

[Ruby the Liberal]

31. I love the smell of pissed off Republicans in the morning.

Double sweet for teahadist backlash.

[libdem4life]

6. I don't what's better news...that Donelly is gaining or that this garbage political noise is losing.

Encouraging.

[niyad]

11. welcome to DU. from what I have seen here on DU, donelly is also anti-choice, nearly the

same as this mourdock creep.

[Ruby the Liberal]

8. Wait - what?

I know the electorate is fickle, but 85:15 to 32:68 in 2 days??

Something isn't right here. Even Akin's numbers didn't see this kind of slide, not to mention the man-child Mandel in Ohio.

[dsc]

21. I don't think this is poll numbers but odds of winning

for example Sherrod Brown has around a 93% of winning but his poll numbers are around 50%.

[Ruby the Liberal]

32. Ah! That makes more sense. Thanks. nt

[Zambero]

43. Akin has had time to "recover" some of his lost support

This close to the election, Mourdock is not quite so "fortunate" although it might tighten up again.

[LisaL]

9. What is it based on?

Have they done any actual polls?

[Wilms]

15. Sources (for the graph): Betfair, Intrade, HuffPost Pollster, RealClearPolitics

at the link

[BainsBane]

19. Neither RCP or HuffPo shows a recent Indiana poll

since Mourdock's comment. Seems to me this is speculation. While we would like to believe it is true, that is no under-estimating the capacity of the Republican voter to go along with any and all forms of crap.

[LisaL]

24. That's my point. This is not based on reality, unless there are some polls to support this

conclusion.

[LiberalElite]

12. But but but

Mourdock says he gained support!!!

[geckosfeet]

13. Not surprising after the things he said.

[Hamlette]

14. Hope this is his "I'm not a witch" moment.

Wouldn't it be great to have a repeat of O'Donnell and Sharon Angle? Tea Party crazy beats reasonable republican in primary only to lose a sure republican seat in the senate. We should not be willing Indiana or Missouri but we are looking pretty good this year.

The GOP is gasping for air and in a terrible bind. The adopted the racist, fundamentalists, and Tea Party and they are pulling them off the cliff.

[Thekaspervote]

16. To borrow a phrase....happier than a witch in a broom factory

Let's tie that around romney's neck and give him some "talking room." guaranteed he'll do the rest for us

[Iliyah]

17. Mourdock only stated what he truly believes

like his co-GOPper males and their inadequate counter parts, i.e., GOPper women.

[DonRedwood]

18. wow...that is pretty amazing!

[Spitfire of ATJ]

22. THIS is what happens when Republicans speak.

We need more to speak.

[Coyotl]

23. Mitt loses!

That's what happens. Say good-bye Indiana Mitt!

[SleeplessinSoCal]

25. This is a twisted combination of religious orthodoxy, Ayn Rand, and sexism.

And it's really ugly. I still don't understand where they get the nerve to speak for women in relation to rape.

[oldhippydude]

26. wow with those dynamics,.... i don't see anyway to turn it around in 12 days

it looks like as sure thing... remember there was some don't that we could hold the senate?.. i haven't counted but it looks like we may actually gain a seat or 2...

Mc Cascil (sp?).. was our weak one and she wisely put her efforts into hand picking the tea party fool Akin.. so we hold that seat..

we pick up Scott Browns seat, by electing Elizabeth.. i cant think of any of our at risk seats that are not fairly solid...

Carmona in Arizona is a stretch but could happen in Arizona..

Hietkamp isn't to far behind... the GOP might shoot another one in the foot who knows..

[-LOKI -BAD FOR YA]

30. love me some heidi,Baldwin,warren ,shelley,and McCaskill

i think all the gop thought all these seats were forsaken. they are making us proud.plus carmona and kerrey yes who would of thought,we only have to supply them with bullets, they will do the rest .since they like guns.

[world wide wally]

27. As my Mother always used to say...

The Lord works in mysterious ways

[oldhippydude]

29. wiggle on the welcome wagon, world wide wally... n/t

[ReallyIAmAnOptimist]

33. Happy dance time!

This makes a lot more sense than the notion that his comments hadn't budged the polls.
Love it!
Go Donnelly!

[BumRushDaShow]

34. Hope this can translate nationwide!

[Mr.Turnip]

38. Is there a chance that we might actually GAIN seats in the senate?

[Delphinus]

39. Oh, but there was

a story, right here on DU GD that said he'd gained votes! (Hope he's wrong and this one is right!)

[Hekate]

40. Bwaaa-haa-haaa

That is all.

[Zambero]

42. Twisted trendline for a very twisted candidate

Lugar must be laughing up a storm right about now.

[spanone]

44. good, may he go down in fucking flames

[onecent]

45. FINALLY finally when a stupid republican says something stupid we see IMMEDIATE

LARGE DAMAGING RESULTS....even if it is all in the name of God...Aiken just didn't hit hard enough in the God portion, lol

All I see is Aiken signs and Romney signs in my town in Missouri. One town over in Clay county just 25 miles outside of Kansas City I see MANY MANY Obama signs. I LOVE to ride down that street and will go out of my way to do so and just melt in the landscape.

[onecent]

46. FINALLY finally when a stupid republican says something stupid we see IMMEDIATE

LARGE DAMAGING RESULTS....even if it is all in the name of God...Aiken just didn't hit hard enough in the God portion, lol

All I see is Aiken signs and Romney signs in my town in Missouri. One town over in Clay county just 25 miles outside of Kansas City I see MANY MANY Obama signs. I LOVE to ride down that street and will go out of my way to do so and just melt in the landscape.