General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsThe Delta variant is 0% of new U.S. cases
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportionsOmicron is the only game in town at the moment.
Dorian Gray
(13,496 posts)recorded 650 cases yesterday. Down from 45,000 around the holidays. (per day) Thank God.
It seems as though Omicron came and conquered Delta.
BootinUp
(47,165 posts)LisaL
(44,973 posts)Omicron is more infectious thus was able to out-compete Delta. Survival of the fittest in action.
Demsrule86
(68,586 posts)contagious but less lethal form.
Lovie777
(12,278 posts)Omicron seems to have helped eradicated Delta. Fingers crossed. Hats off to all those who cared about their fellow man/women and got the vaccinations, boosters, wearing masks, etc.
IronLionZion
(45,454 posts)it's still high in some more rural states who tend to get these waves after the big cities
BumRushDaShow
(129,096 posts)What is the BA.2 or stealth Omicron subvariant?
The World Health Organization (WHO) is currently monitoring the original Omicron variant, BA.1, along with several additional subvariants BA.1.1, BA.2 and BA.3. The subvariant BA.2 has been referred to as stealth Omicron because it has genetic mutations that could make it harder to distinguish from the Delta variant using PCR tests as compared to the original version of Omicron. The Omicron variant has been classified as a variant of concern by the WHO and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The WHO has indicated that since BA.2 is Omicron, it is a variant of concern.
The Omicron variant spreads more easily than the original SARS-CoV-2 strain of the virus that causes COVID-19, and previous variants, including Delta. According to Danish scientists, the Omicron subvariant BA.2, is 1.5 times more transmissible than the original Omicron strain. While there is currently no evidence that the BA.2 lineage is more severe than the BA.1 lineage, experts have warned that BA.2 could extend the current wave of COVID-19 infections in the U.S.
In the Feb. 2, 2022, episode of the COVID-19 Video Update, AMA Director of Science, Medicine and Public Health Andrea Garcia, JD, MPH, said that cases of BA.2 have increased in Denmark, India and in the U.K. and it could drag out the Omicron surge in much of the world.
In the U.S., BA.2 is about 8% of our cases right now, Garcia said. While BA.2 does not appear to cause more severe disease and our vaccines appear to be effective, BA.2 does show signs of spreading more easily, which really could translate into that slowing down of the trend we're seeing with cases declining.
(snip)
https://www.ama-assn.org/delivering-care/public-health/what-ba2-or-stealth-omicron-subvariant
WA-03 Democrat
(3,050 posts)Amazing if you think about how fast things can change (in either direction).
BumRushDaShow
(129,096 posts)This thing is going to keep mutating for years. The main hope is that it genetically burns itself out in terms of the level of damage that later variants could cause to someone who might get infected.
I.e., in a personification sense, if it wants to "survive", it can't keep killing its hosts.
Johnny2X2X
(19,066 posts)Cases and deaths are plummeting, Omicron washed over the country like a wave, and then it left.
What this means for the future is anyone's guess, but hopefully we're reaching the endemic stage soon.
And politically, Dems will want Covid in the rear view mirror this Fall, they've done a great job fighting it, but the messaging is getting bad.
BumRushDaShow
(129,096 posts)They said that almost 2 years ago.
As long as you have pockets around the world infected, some new variant can emerge and spark yet another wave. We have been through at least 5 waves now (and trying to get out of a 6th, which has been the worst in terms of transmission) with people STILL "predicting" that it would be "endemic any day now".
After EVERY ONE of those peaks in the above chart, it was declared "over" and many people insisted they would go "back to normal", and then BAM!
(sorry to rant at your post )
Johnny2X2X
(19,066 posts)First of all, the experts always predicted more waves, and they're now not sure what will happen.
Second, vaccinations, 75% of the country has at least 1 shot, almost 2 in 3 have 2 shots. And natural immunity, a significant portion of the country has some level of ability to fight off Covid now because their bodies have done so already.
Covid is not going anywhere, but major and widespread disruptions to American life could be over.
BumRushDaShow
(129,096 posts)"natural immunity" has been deemed "diffuse", "non-specific", and not long-lasting and some of that has unfortunately been the situation with the vaccines (i.e., how long they remain effective).
I.e., the behavior is more like the variety of Influenzas that mutate constantly and require an annual shot. You'll notice the idiocy of "herd immunity" is rarely mentioned anymore because when it comes to this virus and its variants (like the "common cold" ), there IS no "herd immunity".
I would agree that certain disruptions may be lessened to a degree but if you look around the world - particularly in Europe, you continue to see the cavalier "end of mitigation" followed by new surges and then those governments impose new lockdowns.
This has happened TIME after TIME after TIME.
I know the U.S. now has generally decided not to go back to draconian measures such as lockdowns but in order to keep this thing in check, there is going to HAVE to be some kind of mitigation strategy that remains - whether it's masking in certain situations (indoors for small square foot facilities like classrooms, small storefronts, etc), or reducing the capacity of certain events, or allowing more eating establishments to set up shop outside, etc., then that will go a long way to "managing" this thing.
Johnny2X2X
(19,066 posts)The US never had lockdowns, they had a few "stay at home orders" that were basically let's close bars and restaurants for a while.
And schools have been open for a long time and the only reason they close at all right now is because of staff shortages for a week or two.
People aren't going to mask anymore, people are going to continue to go about their lives. Covid is over for the majority of the country.
The number of people who had Omicron will never be known, but all of those rapid at home tests don't even get counted unless that person reports it to the health department. Seems like half the people I know had Covid over the last 2 months.
Mad_Machine76
(24,414 posts)When people moan and complain about them as though we were all holed up in our homes for months or years, I feel like I'm being gaslit because that NEVER happened.
BumRushDaShow
(129,096 posts)Look - please stop with the misinformation. Here - look at this lovely 600+ post LBN OP about the PENNSYLVANIA LOCKDOWNS from start to finish.
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10142446993
And no, schools have NOT been "open for a long time". Here in Philly, they finally started "in person" last September after 18 months of virtual sessions (March 2020 - September 2021 - including summer for those who would have been in summer school) and then immediately had to start shutting schools down AGAIN to temporarily go virtual at the start of the school year when as both the Delta and then Omicron waves blasted through.
And then right after the holidays, the same thing happened again with the schools here as upwards of 100 schools were forced into virtual learning this past January due to infections and lack of staff.
The issue might not be personal to you but it shows a complete lack of respect or concern or empathy for the healthcare workers - the doctors, nurses, medical assistants, and lab staff who have had to deal with not just the most extreme cases of COVID infections and overflowing ICUs, but also breakthrough illnesses in both the vulnerable vaccinated and vaccine-ineligible children who have ended up in the hospital.
SoonerPride
(12,286 posts)The US as a whole didn't impose anywhere near the draconian lockdowns of Italy or France.
We had a minimal amount of disruption and that was only to flatten the curve, which we did more or less successfully.
BumRushDaShow
(129,096 posts)was that it was suggesting that there were few "lockdowns" and only for a short period of time and that is not the case at all. Most of the "blue/purple states", which have the largest populations - and that included states like California, New York, Pennsylvania, Illinois, etc. who DID institute major shutdowns of schools and "non-essential businesses", and even had lists of states where travelers coming in from those states were required to quarantine. All of them also had "stay at home" orders, which is exactly like what Europe did - i.e., everything wasn't completely "locked down" in the literal sense there or here for obvious reasons, because the essential services were needed (groceries, pharmacies, etc).
And you also need to consider that an "international ban on travel" was instituted here - i.e., a "Public Health Emergency" was declared January 31, 2020 and travelers from China were banned, and the list grew to include European countries as the months passed... and even as late as this past November, new countries were added as Omicron exploded, after other restrictions were lifted just a few weeks earlier, including between the U.S. and Canada/Mexico. And those last countries on the latest list were finally dropped at the end of December.
And I have posted that each one of those countries is like a state in population here and many of our states, like here in PA and in NY DID NOT have a "minimal amount of disruption".
The schools here in Philly were virtual for 18 months due to the "disruption".
How the hell can one consider the "supply chain" issue with barges STILL backed up in ports like California, not a "disruption"?
I sat in on our city's now-biweekly COVID-19 status briefing this morning as they were announcing the steps to begin to lift some restrictions based on the data (using a tiered level of criteria to decide), and agree with our mayor's exasperation, where he basically said -"If people would JUST do what they have been told to do these past couple years with masking and getting vaccinated, then we would not be in this position today".
Zeitghost
(3,862 posts)Is the difference between then and now. Between vaccines and those who have recovered we are quickly running out of potential fatalities.
BumRushDaShow
(129,096 posts)is also reflecting the fact that testing capacity (whether home-tests or PCR tests) has increased significantly. So it's entirely possible the early spike would have been higher had people had access to tests for both the wild type and Alpha variants.
During those early days, there were people reporting symptoms like nausea/gastric issues and loss of taste and smell, those symptoms were being dismissed outright, where testers were only accepting people who had "a cough" and "a fever".... until they realized what the virus was actually doing.
They eventually discovered how what had become a wide variety of symptoms were apparently related to where in the body the virus managed to settle to replicate - i.e., places that had ACE2 receptors. And that is where this virus could start damaging the cells in those areas (whether in the lungs, on the kidneys, or even circulating throughout the bloodstream into the heart or brain.
Johnny2X2X
(19,066 posts)Most people took at home Rapid tests and when they tested positive it wasn't reported anywhere. So there were 10s of millions of Omicron cases not counted.
BumRushDaShow
(129,096 posts)There are some states who ARE counting them (although also keeping their tally separate), like my state - Pennsylvania. But obviously ONLY if they are reported to the state, usually by medical personnel. I.e., they are being called "presumptive positives".
So yes the actual results would be way higher if all of the rapid tests were reported. And note that there are other types of tests that are done - like antibody diagnostic tests that are often done in the hospital setting, and those are not PCR nor antigen tests (where most of the rapid tests are antigen type).
Zeitghost
(3,862 posts)And that's what the majority of people are using. I know dozens of people who have got it since Thanksgiving and only a few went in for PCR tests, usually the first household member to come down with symptoms. It's estimated 1/3-1/2 of the country has had or will get Omicron.
BumRushDaShow
(129,096 posts)There are literally hundreds of EUA-approved "home testing kits" and some actually have some kind of computer interface that allow for reporting to local/municipal/county health officials who will usually take that data and segregate it into a dataset that they will call "presumptive positives". Some will even tally them into the totals and report both - with the presumptives and without them.
This is why the totals on the many aggregate COVID-case tracking sites are so out of whack and different from each other, including even comparing to some of the states they claim they are getting the data from.
Some of these "home test kits" are actually home-administered for PCR testing (where the specimens can either be dropped off at a lab or mailed) and that even includes some of the latest "saliva"-based tests.
And no, the VAST majority are never "submitted" but there are those that ARE - particularly for those who are home-bound and under home health care.
Zeitghost
(3,862 posts)of home tests.
BumRushDaShow
(129,096 posts)and others just "declare" something based on whatever pops in their mind... with zero evidence, goal post moves, and no reference to where they are getting their ideas.
There are people who are working in certain occupations or who are, for example IN PRISON where testing is done continually and results are reported to, and tracked by the state/counties/municipalities where the prison is located (and in applicable cases, to the federal Bureau of Prisons who manages the federal prisons).
For example, here is the data from here in PA for the state prison cases that have been tracked - https://www.cor.pa.gov/Pages/COVID-19.aspx
The same has been going on in longterm care and rehab facilities, etc. They are not doing deep nasal swabs on many of those folks. And because of the backlogs for PCR results, given a sensitive enough antigen test (and there are a handful out there that are), then results of those can be submitted as a "presumptive positive" and a PCR follow-up can happen later and get reconciled with the state/county/local health personnel who are compiling the data.
BannonsLiver
(16,396 posts)Nobody was saying at the time it was just beginning it was about to go endemic. It's important to get context right.
BumRushDaShow
(129,096 posts)THAT is the "context" and it got worse from there.
By Emily Rauhala
February 8, 2020
As a mysterious virus spread through Wuhan last month, the World Health Organization had a message: China has got this. And as the coronavirus swept across the Chinese heartland and jumped to other nations, the WHOs director general, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, applauded the transparency of the Chinese response.
Even as evidence mounted that Chinese officials had silenced whistleblowers and undercounted cases, Tedros took a moment to extol the leadership of Chinese President Xi Jinping. Now more than a month into an escalating global health crisis there are questions about whether the WHOs praise in the early weeks created a false sense of security that potentially spurred the viruss spread.
We were deceived, said Lawrence Gostin, a professor of global health law at Georgetown University who also provides technical assistance to the WHO. Myself and other public health experts, based on what the World Health Organization and China were saying, reassured the public that this was not serious, that we could bring this under control, he continued.
We were, he added, giving a false sense of assurance.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/chinese-officials-note-serious-problems-in-coronavirus-response-the-world-health-organization-keeps-praising-them/2020/02/08/b663dd7c-4834-11ea-91ab-ce439aa5c7c1_story.html
World Health Organization Declares COVID-19 a 'Pandemic.' Here's What That Means
By Jamie Ducharme
March 11, 2020 12:39 PM EDT
The World Health Organization (WHO) on March 11 declared COVID-19 a pandemic, pointing to the over 118,000 cases of the coronavirus illness in over 110 countries and territories around the world and the sustained risk of further global spread. This is not just a public health crisis, it is a crisis that will touch every sector, said Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO director-general, at a media briefing. So every sector and every individual must be involved in the fights.
An epidemic refers to an uptick in the spread of a disease within a specific community. By contrast, the WHO defines a pandemic as global spread of a new disease, though the specific threshold for meeting that criteria is fuzzy. The term is most often applied to new influenza strains, and the CDC says its used when viruses are able to infect people easily and spread from person to person in an efficient and sustained way in multiple regions. The declaration refers to the spread of a disease, rather than the severity of the illness it causes.
In some ways, declaring a pandemic is more art than science. Pandemics mean different things to different people, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Dr. Anthony Fauci said in February. It really is borderline semantics, to be honest with you.
During multiple prior press briefings, WHO officials maintained that COVID-19 had pandemic potential, but stopped short of declaring it one. The agency did, in January, call it a public health emergency of international concern, a slightly different label that refers to an extraordinary event that constitute[s] a public health risk to other States through the international spread of disease.
https://time.com/5791661/who-coronavirus-pandemic-declaration/