Electoral effects of SANDY

[cthulu2016]

Sandy will be long gone by election day, so the potential effect on election day itself is limited to lingering rural power outages.

The swing states that will see really notable weather are Virginia (likely), Ohio (no hurricane, but probably some nasty weather in eastern Ohio)and possibly New Hampshire (less likely). The most affected will probably be northern and western (mountain) Virginia.

Sandy will reduce early voting in some places.

A big storm should benefit the incumbent somewhat unless response is totally defective, which it won't be. Presidents do best when doing President stuff and it looks bad for a challenger to be running around criticizing during any sort of crisis.

The trailing candidate never wants the race frozen, which big non-political news stories do. If Romney is behind he doesn't want three days of TV devoted to Anderson Cooper standing in the rain.

Taken all together, there are things that benefit one side or the other, but the overall effect is probably a wash. (No pun intended.)

[SharonAnn]

1. Ohio?

[cthulu2016]

2. Sure. Nothing deadly there, but probably a day or two of heavy rain (or snow)

If Sandy goes where it is generally expected to go it will break up all over Pennsylvania and probably give eastern Ohio some heavy rain at some point.

Nasty weather reduces early voting and interferes with campaigning, so it's a factor.

But there probably won't be major storm effects in Ohio.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/refresh/AL1812W5_NL+gif/115449W5_NL_sm.gif

[regnaD kciN]

3. Yes...

The current projected storm path brings it in over the middle Atlantic states and takes it straight through to the Great Lakes. By the time it hits Ohio, of course, it will no longer be a hurricane, but it still will beca massive storm, made worse by a collision with Arctic air coming down from Canada -- meaning that the tropical storm may turn into a winter storm by the time it hits Ohio.

[luvs2sing]

5. Latest from NOAA for central Ohio

REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SANDY WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDY AND RAINY WEATHER
CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND HOW IT INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH. THIS TRACK WILL DIRECTLY AFFECT THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION AND WIND THAT IS OBSERVED IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP...STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST.


This really doesn't sound too bad for us until you factor in the fact that we in Columbus are "served" by American Electric Power, and our power goes out for extended periods of time if someone breaks wind. I'm sure it will be worse for the counties east of us....more rural...also more conservative, which may work in our favor if we get hit hard.

[lalalu]

4. The blue states of NJ and NY may take a direct hit.

These are solid states for President Obama and I am certain he will be on the call to provide assistance. The problem will be with the local drama queens. Christie likes to blow a lot of hot air , Bloomberg can be calm but elections can bring out his prima donna instincts, and Cuomo likes to wait and see which way the political tide is turning.

Most will come probably come together with the possible exception of Christie. Yes, it is possible he will try to politicize this for the benefit of Romney. The only thing is Christie has to redeem himself after being out of state the last time NJ got walloped by a storm.

We have batteries, emergency bags, medicine, non perishable food, and everything powered up in case the electricity goes out. We have been lucky in the past but you never know.

[Raven]

6. Us rural folks in NH won't let a

storm keep us from the polls. We'll have plenty of time to clean up.

[OSPREYXIV]

7. Visit NASA's GOES 13 for weather satellite photos

(Sorry, can't post the link w/ this mobile device)
NASA's GOES satellite displays real time photos of Eastern CONUS & Northern Hemisphere data. Visible/infra-red/water vapor images indicate a strong front will intersect with Hurricane Sandy along the mideastern seaboard this weekend.

The predicted superstorm has the potential for damaging the regional grid's capacity to repair itself in a timely manner. Executive-level foot-dragging could amplify delays occurring due to "shortages" of emergency repair crews, lack of non-governmental agency coordination, etc.

Electronic voting machines may "malfunction" and early voter turnout could be affected. Pay attention and prepare to maintain a constant state of heightened and sceptical awareness at. all. times. In other words, check six, keep an eye on the red alert line of your bovine fecal matter detectors at all times and call them on their bullshit if there's a stink.

[kentauros]

11. Is this the page you're mentioning:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/tropicalwx/satellite.php

I like it especially for the water vapor loops. They don't tell you everything, but you can get a good idea of what the rainfall is going to be like.

Also, people might like this link for local water observations and predictions

[Nye Bevan]

8. I'm pretty sure President Obama won't be doing this....

[GreenPartyVoter]

9. Do places with electronic voting machines have back-up power? It would suck to get in to the polls

and then not be able to vote anyway.

[justiceischeap]

10. The funny thing about all the worry is that us East Coaster's

get weather all the time. It's not like we're immune to hurricane's or blizzard's, etc. Folks in rural areas are used to it, folks in cities less so but it's not like we shut down like in Norfolk, VA when 1/2 inch of snow falls on the ground (true story).