@JackDetsch Just in: Russia has moved nearly 100 percent of forces into place needed for an invasion

[yaesu]

per senior U.S. defense official.

Link to tweet

@KatieBoLillis
JUST IN: Confirming Newsweek that the U.S. has issued a new warning to the Ukrainian government that the latest intelligence points to a full scale attack imminently, per Ukrainian and US officials.

At particular risk, the warning said, is the northeastern city of Kharkiv.

Link to tweet

and this caveat from the Guardian:

The Guardian can confirm that the warning of an imminent attack has gone out to Ukraine and allies and that the UK shared the US assessment.

Diplomats I have been talking to are aware the West has cried wolf once before, on 16 February, so there are caveats.

There was also a scare last night, when some intelligence suggested an all-out attack was about to happen but it turned out to be a false alarm.

The bottom line is there are large Russian formations on the move, so the assessment is that an onslaught could be unleashed at any time.

[albacore]

1. Kpete posted this earlier.

We have to remember that the Russian military is/hasbeen/will be fundamentally fucked up except for the elite units. No discipline. They better shit or get off the pot.

- - - - -
Postings spotted by military analyst Rob Lee on Monday showed about 100 soldiers camped out – or rather lying down – at a train station about 20km from Ukraine’s border, without rations and having to buy food for themselves.

Russian troops based in Belarus, in forests near the town of Khoyniki, 50km from the Ukraine border, were described by one local a few days ago as people who “drink a lot and sell a lot of their diesel fuel”, suggesting a lack of discipline despite the heightened political tensions.

Western intelligence estimates that roughly a third of the overall Russian forces are now believed to be “tactically deployed” in frontline positions “poised for operations”. Their movements have been monitored closely using aerial and other reconnaissance for several weeks, as they edge closer to the border.

On Monday, one senior official said they believed it would only be possible for Russia to maintain them in their forward positions for “a matter of days” – a conclusion that is endorsed by independent experts.

MORE:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/23/harsh-conditions-mean-russian-troops-near-ukraine-will-need-to-be-moved-soon