Putin's going to get away with it

[iemanja]

Because the US and Europe don't want to get into a war with a nuclear power, probably rightly so. But that means Putin is going to take Ukraine and anything else he wants.

Tell me I'm wrong.

[FrankChurchDem]

1. He may win the day

But he'll lose the war.

[PortTack]

2. Trashing...this is wild speculation and fear mongering!!

[underpants]

3. Ukraine yes but I don't think he can expand beyond.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100216388270

[iemanja]

8. Your OP doesn't say that

I don't see it anyway.

[underpants]

14. My OP was about Ukraine

because that is presently what’s happening.
I don’t see that he has a large enough military to go beyond that AND Ukraine is what he wants.

[Dial H For Hero]

4. I agree.

[uponit7771]

5. You're wrong, the first sign of a nuke NATO fucks Putin's shit up. We're going to get a bloody nose

... but Putin will lose a lot of teeth and a leg and some fingers and toes and some other shit

[iemanja]

12. I didn't say Putin would use a nuke on Ukraine

I said that the West will avoid a military war because of fear of Russia's nukes, for the same reason the US never got into a direct conflict with Russia during the Cold War.

[Samrob]

6. Unless...

[NickB79]

7. 43 million Ukrainians to conquer

He can try to take it. He can't hold it if he does, no more than we could hold Iraq or Afghanistan.

[iemanja]

13. They held it before

during the USSR.

[NickB79]

25. They starved millions, and let the Nazis kill millions more, all in 20 years

Modern day Ukraine isn't like it was 70 years ago. And Russia's military isn't what it was under the USSR either.

[herding cats]

9. He's going to get Ukraine.

His legacy will be sealed with the blood of the innocents there who only wanted a chance to live in a democracy independent of Russia.

[at140]

10. Putin already took Crimea, also a part of Ukraine previously

He is not going to attempt to take over entire Ukraine. Putin mainly wants to absorb Russian speaking regions in Ukraine. That is a small fraction of Ukraine.

[iemanja]

18. There is already fighting in Kyiv

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Thursday that the Kremlin had decided to carry out a “special military operation” in Ukraine.

“The situation requires us to take decisive, swift action,” he said in an early morning speech, adding that Moscow would carry out the “demilitarization and denazification” of Ukraine and end eight years of war in eastern Ukraine, where Kyiv government forces have been fighting Russian-backed separatists.

Explosions could be heard in Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, and Kharkiv, in the country’s northeast. A senior Ukrainian official said that there were explosions at Kyiv’s Boryspil airport. Putin told Ukrainians to give up their weapons and to return home.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/23/russia-ukraine-updates/

[at140]

24. Only explosions in Kyiv, not Russian troops

those are probably work of insurgents in Ukraine who side with Russia.

[iemanja]

27. He's not going to be satisfied with the eastern breakaway states

He essentially had them before the invasion. He wants all of the Ukraine, and his rhetoric is about justifying taking it all.

[at140]

37. I doubt it, but then I have no access to

Putin's mind. My bet is he does not attempt to take over entire country of Ukraine.

[iemanja]

39. I hope you're right. nt

[DBoon]

11. They couldn't hold Afganistan with nukes

They won't hold Ukraine either

[at140]

15. Russia took over Crimea by force, and holding it.

And Crimea has not reported unrest under Russian rule.

[Quixote1818]

31. Wasn't Crimea a somewhat pro Putin territory and didn't Russia get bogged down

for years in Chechnya? Chechnya is a tiny little country compared to Ukraine. Seems like apples and oranges.

[at140]

42. Exactly and the part of Ukraine Putin is after is...

or consists of Russian speaking people who wish to join Russia.
Same thing happened when Putin invaded Crimea. There was talk of 3rd WW.
doom and gloom. Crimea has not reported unrest from Russian takeover.

[Quixote1818]

51. Few are expecting Putin to stop in the breakaway regions

The OP is talking about Putin taking the entire country of Ukraine which is mostly not pro Russia.

[at140]

56. If Putin attempts to takeover entire Ukraine, it will be

another Afghanistan disaster for Russia. I do not believe Putin is that stupid.
My guess is Putin wants to be even more popular in Russia by "liberating" a province in Ukraine which has pro-Russia inclinations. Similar to Crimea.

But then what do I know? CIA does not brief me in.

[uponit7771]

16. +1, I think Ukraine will be twice as bad as Afghanistan for Russia eventually

[sarisataka]

19. They used nukes in Afghanistan?

Wow I guess I wasn't paying attention that day

[DBoon]

22. No, and their possession of nukes could not keep ..

.. Afghanistan under their control

Nuclear weapons are useless in controlling a civilian population

[sarisataka]

28. Obviously

because if you use a nuke there is no longer a population to control

[iemanja]

23. My point about the nukes

was not that Putin would use them in the Ukraine, but rather they are a deterrent to the US and Western Europe entering into a direct war with Russia.

[at140]

26. Very valid point! nt

[sarisataka]

33. Nuclear powers tend to be very cautious

about directly confronting each other.

He doesn't need to use nukes to threaten as we have already informed Russia we will not come to Ukraine's aid

[sarisataka]

17. He can take Ukraine

and likely will. However he cannot expand further west as he is up against NATO countries.

The countries south of Russia that were formerly part of the USSR may want to watch their northern neighbor.

[harumph]

53. He can take it - but can't hold it forever.

Europe and the US have seen what this Mf'r is about and there's no going back.

[sarisataka]

54. Stalin held it

and Putin sees himself as a modern Stalin

[iemanja]

55. He's ruled nearly as long as Stalin did. nt

[BeyondGeography]

20. Putin just wrecked Russia for the better part of the next century

He has no future and neither do they.

[hamsterjill]

21. Unless someone steps in, you're right.

Putin is mad, and madness doesn’t respond to reason. Madness must be stopped by force.

[iemanja]

32. I don't see him as mad

I think he wants power and control over Ukraine, and he knows how to get it.
I think he is a rational actor, just one whose values and perceived interests diverge from the norm of the current day.

[hamsterjill]

35. Acknowledged.

I respect your opinion but I disagree.

[Deminpenn]

40. Russia feels Ukraine is part of their country

AFAIK, most Ukrainians actually speak Russian and have at least some cultural connection with it.

I agree that Putin is a rational actor.

[iemanja]

44. In the eastern part of Ukraine.

but not the western part.

[Deminpenn]

49. Once this excursion is over, Ukraine will be

effectively partioned. The Ukraine that is left should immediately apply for NATO membership and be accepted. This is the least the US/Europe can do given the promises of protection given when Ukraine gave up its nukes.

[PortTack]

29. We and the EU damn well better fight for Ukraine after they gave up the nukes with assurances

From the US that we would protect them!

Talk about further decimating our credibility worldwide,

[Cracklin Charlie]

30. He may win Ukraine, and lose Russia.

for Ukraine

[Deminpenn]

34. Putin has so much of the Russian military concentrated

around Ukraine, China could mosey on over and take any of the Asian part of Russia it wanted right now. They won't do it, but they could.

[iemanja]

36. I don't actually think that China has territorial aspirations

beyond Taiwan, Tibet, and regions right near them. They are interested in conquering the world through wealth. They've been working to supersede the US in Latin America for some time by extending loans and engaging in development projects. I believe they are doing the same in Africa.

[Deminpenn]

43. I agree and Putin probably got assurances from

China before he launched his Ukraine adventure that they would remain on the sideline.

[iemanja]

50. I'm sure nt

[gldstwmn]

38. He's got nukes but he also has an

economy that's less than any large American city. Plans of grandeur will be unsustainable.

[iemanja]

41. because so much of Russia's wealth has been stolen

by Putin and the oligarchs.

[gldstwmn]

46. You think they'll fund their war?

[iemanja]

48. good question

My hope was that the US and Europe would impose sanctions that really hurt the oligarchs so that they tell Putin to withdraw the troops.

[redstateblues]

45. Russia is a second rate country with an army and nukes

And an inferiority complex

[gldstwmn]

47. +1000

[Quixote1818]

52. + 1000