The Coming Energy Shock

[Celerity]

Beyond the imminent threat of violence, Russia is poised to upend the global energy market.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/energy-crisis-russia-gas/622884/

https://archive.fo/H3wA7



Some commentators are comparing the current Russian aggression against Ukraine to Hitler’s invasion of Poland in August 1939. Here’s another analogy that could be more accurate: In 1979, upheavals in the Middle East sent energy prices soaring—and Western economies tumbling.

Russia is the world’s No. 3 exporter of oil, and its No. 2 exporter of natural gas. If Western countries respond to Russia’s invasion by imposing sanctions, Russia’s obvious countermove is to retaliate by cutting back fuel sales.

Such a move would hurt Russia too. But Vladimir Putin has carefully prepared for the shock—and of course Russian citizens have learned that it’s dangerous to complain.

The state of the energy market provides much of the answer to the “Why now?” questions about Putin’s timing. Donald Trump supporters like to argue that it was their guy’s manic unpredictability that deterred Putin from invading in 2018 or 2019. That claim was smashed to pieces yesterday when Trump praised the invasion as “genius” and “savvy.”

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[SergeStorms]

1. This would be an excellent time....

for the people of Russia to rise up and demand a change in leadership.

Fighting wars on two fronts would weaken Putin immensely. If he started shooting Russian citizens for dissenting in the streets, the Russian military may start having doubts about Putin as well. There they are, freezing on the Ukraine front and their loved ones are being massacred at home.

Whether the Russian people have the will for this remains to be seen, but it would be a perfect time if they had the stomach for it.