What is your opinion? Is MAD still in effect?

[Coventina]

Or is Putin so far gone that he truly believes the US is so divided and enough Republicans are in his pocket that we would hold back?

Would we hold back? For the sake of civilization?

At this point, I honestly don't know. However, I am not an expert in what our intelligence might say about the situation.

I don't assume anyone here does either, but I'm curious to hear what my fellow DUers think.

ON EDIT: I am envisioning a scenario where Putin pushes the button FIRST, not us.

[lagomorph777]

1. Yes; we won't nuke Russia.

But there's a lot of room for other options.

[Dave says]

2. We won't strike first, but are we willing to strike in retaliation?

[lagomorph777]

3. That would be mandatory.

It's the other half of MAD.

[Voltaire2]

6. Military options?

Basically we have zero military options.

[lagomorph777]

11. Does materiel count as a military option?

I think we'll be ramping up our supply line to Ukraine and other Eastern European nations.
I also expect we'll provide intel and defensive / offensive cyber. Do those count as military?

[Voltaire2]

16. Sure, but none of that will matter.

We could dump some supplies into western Ukraine, but so what? It isn’t like their military is integrated with ours and could use our advanced weapons systems.

Intelligence will provide some help, but basically eastern Ukraine is surrounded by Russian forces and that isn’t a secret.

Russia will occupy some portion of Ukraine. The only question is can it control the area it occupies.

[Voltaire2]

4. Nuclear war is still MAD.

But I’m confused by your post. Do you think a nuclear strike on Russia, resulting in millions of deaths, would be a good idea?

[Coventina]

7. I apologize for my lack of clarity, I will edit my OP

I meant that if PUTIN uses a nuke (not necessarily against us, but anywhere), would we retaliate?

[Voltaire2]

10. Ah, that's a good question.

But Putin currently has no incentive to do that. I suppose that could change if things go wrong for him militarily in Ukraine, but I think that is unlikely.

Back in Cold War I it was our forces in Europe that were armed with and officially ready to use tactical nukes against a Russian assault.

[Dirty Heads]

14. Absolutely we would retaliate.

You'd have to at that point.

[uponit7771]

5. No, just heard a shocked UKR woman lament that Putin is not going to stop at UKR I believe her.

[Dan]

8. As soon as our adversaries obtained/acquired Nuclear weapons...MAD was always on the table.

[SCantiGOP]

9. That is the big question

Knowing what we know now, what would we have done differently in the 1930’s when Hitler came to power……if the US and Germany both had nuclear weapons? Would we have used them when he first invaded Poland? What about to prevent him from seizing Paris if he had pledged to retaliate by nuking London or New York?

[harumph]

12. Yes.

We aren't first strike though. If any nuclear missile is detected coming from Russia, there will be a
nuclear retaliation. Let's hope he's not THAT crazy. His actions however certainly increase the risk - however
remote - of a nuclear exchange simply because of possible false alarms.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alarm_incident

All I can say is the autocrats (all of them) need to be taken out by any means necessary, because their
narcissism and self importance are going to kill the world. By nature, they lack the ability for empathy and
to think collectively and collaboratively to solve problems. Once the leaders are gone, the petite authoritarians
will slink back in their holes.

[sop]

13. I think Putin is counting on the deterrence of Mutual Assured Destruction.

He's confident the West will never escalate this conflict to the point of a potential nuclear exchange, and economic sanctions will be the only response. He's probably right.

[AngryOldDem]

19. We really have no assurance he won't launch first.

The man is unstable to begin with and feels threatened. Who knows what will happen if/when he continues to push West beyond Kyiv?

God, what a conversation to be having.

[sarisataka]

15. If he fires, we will fire

And so will France, UK, China, India, Pakistan and North Korea. Maybe Israel will hold back.

Everyone loses- even non participating nations.

[maryellen99]

17. Yes he threatened nuclear war in his speech

Link to tweet

?s=21

[Thunderbeast]

18. Putin's health has been questioned

Rebuilding the Soviet Union may be about his legacy.

He may believe that he is running out of time.

[Midnight Writer]

20. Thank God we spent trillions on our Star Wars Missile Defense System.