Why are Russian forces massing near Polish border?

[RandySF]

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Jack Detsch
@JackDetsch
NEW: Russia has assembled troops, armor, artillery, and more than 50 heavy equipment transporters a training area in Brest, near the Polish border.

Russia has also added more equipment at a nearby railyard in Belarus.

[MFM008]

1. If one russian bb

Falls into Poland and they are NATO.
Its over.

[TheBlackAdder]

32. I've heard that they've been amassing forces along the border for the past 3 weeks.

[Srkdqltr]

2. Poland is next?

[MarineCombatEngineer]

5. Not hardly.

Poland is a member of NATO, therefore and attack on them would be considered an attack on all the members of NATO and would trigger Article 5 of the NATO convention and NATO would destroy the Russian military and Putin and his Generals know this, as do the Oligarchs who are the actual rulers of Russia.

[EndlessWire]

21. Hi, MCE! n/t

[MarineCombatEngineer]

33. Howdy there EndlessWire.

[TomSlick]

35. You are making a couple of assumptions that may or may not be true.

You are assuming that Putin is a rational actor. The evidence is to the contrary.

You are also assuming that Putin believes that NATO would invoke Article 5 if Poland is invaded. Putin is not convinced that NATO would really start a war over Poland. There is at least a basis for Putin's belief. The US RW media will not support a war against Russia under any circumstances. The pacifist LW in the US can be expected to oppose any war, no matter how justified or necessary. Many in the middle will not understand why defending Poland is in the US national interest. I think the US would defend Poland but it is not certain.

[MarineCombatEngineer]

36. Putin may not be rational,

but the Russian Military high command is and they know the truth.

I think if Putin did order an attack on Poland or any other NATO country, that would be the end of him, if he isn't deposed by the military, then the real rulers of Russia would definitely depose him, after all, a full blown war is bad for these Oligarchs business and they know it.

Of course, this is all just my opinion.

[TomSlick]

37. I hope you are correct.

It would be an extraordinary event for Russian military leaders - who owe their positions to Putin - to oppose him. It is inconceivable that the oligarchs - who are currently dependent on Putin for their wealth - would oppose him.

[MarineCombatEngineer]

38. When the cash starts drying up for these Oligarchs,

then all bets are off, and when, not if, but when the war starts going badly, and there are reports that not all Russian soldiers are on board with this illegal invasion, then the Generals are going to start re-evaluating their allegiance to him, they don't want a war with NATO, especially with a united NATO who have made it crystal clear that any attack on a NATO member will be considered and attack on all the members, which would be disastrous for Russia.

I hope to hell I'm right, otherwise...............There will be a bad moon rising.

[TomSlick]

39. I hope you are correct.

It may be that engineers see the world as a logical system, while JAGs (even old retired ones) assume bad folks will do bad things and cannot be deterred.

[MarineCombatEngineer]

40. We engineers have a saying,

"There's not a human condition that can't be solved with the proper application of C-4 explosives."

[Straw Man]

43. What makes you think ...

... that our NATO obligations are subject to the domestic political climate? We're either in it or we're not. It's not much of an alliance if, when push comes to shove, we say "Oops ... this one's not polling well, so we're going to sit it out."

[TomSlick]

45. I agree that our NATO obligations are not subject to the domestic political climate.

The question is whether our willingness to met our NATO obligations is subject to the domestic political climate.

[Quixote1818]

3. That is also right next to the NW Ukraine border.

You have to cut and paste the link for it to work.

https://www.google.com/maps/search/brest+poland/@51.0463578,23.043881,6.75z

[TheRealNorth]

4. My guess is they plan to move on Lviv

Unless they are suicidal.

[Quixote1818]

6. Yep. I had a hunch it was probably near Ukraine and sure enough it is.

An attack on Poland isn't happening anytime soon.

[EndlessWire]

22. My guess is they want the Bug River. n/t

[Srkdqltr]

7. Never know with him.

He may not believe NATO will do much. I hope not.

[MarineCombatEngineer]

9. HE may think so,

but his military leaders are under no illusions of NATO not responding violently to such an incursion on a member of NATO.

[Buddy2]

10. Or knowing that the NATO military complex

Is underfunded and not up to strength.

$100 oil emboldens Russia even more.

[sabbat hunter]

12. Oil can go

up to $1000 a barrel, it won't help Putin any if he has no place to sell it. The sanctions put in to place ensures he has no place to sell his oil.

[Buddy2]

15. To China. To India.

It’s laughable. He is selling gas still to Germany. Russia operates off of oil money and gas. He still will tomorrow. Russia does not attack at $40 oil. Has the US payments for last months oil cleared the bank yet?

[cinematicdiversions]

20. I am pretty sure the US is an oil producer more than a consumer. NT

[Buddy2]

25. We are not oil neutral and we import oil from Russia

We exported more oil than we imported a few years ago. That is not the case today. We import around 200,000 bbd from Russia and they are not in the top two importers. But that hardly matters. We are not a major customer for Russia.

[harumph]

26. Dude, you don't know what you're talking about.

We can ramp up production quicker than you can snap your fingers.

[Buddy2]

29. Oil is very profitable at $60

Snap your fingers??? We were drilling wells at $45 oil 3years ago. Snap your fingers…it’s at $100.
It was at $85 a barrel last month. With wellhead costs around $25 why was the price rising? Why weren’t we swimming in oil over the last 8 months?

Because demand is rising faster than we can get new production online and the logistics to utilize it.
We are drilling more. We are consuming more.

[Buddy2]

30. Did you snap your fingers yet?

[CrackityJones75]

28. Not very much.

[uponit7771]

14. +1

[blue-wave]

8. Is he crazy enough?

Brest is closer to Warsaw than to Lviv. And what Putin has done thus far is not rational. Is he crazy enough to attack a NATO country?

[BGBD]

18. It's also

The closest point within his range to Lviv.

If they set a foot into Poland the US and other NATO countries would wipe out the bunch before they knew they were getting hit.

Russia is having enough trouble just trying to take Ukraine. In a fight with Poland they could count on losing air superiority fighting a war with extended line against an enemy surrounded by allies willing to fight with them.

Anyone entering Poland is committing suicide

[blue-wave]

19. It might also be his closest point to Lviv but

Warsaw is, by highway, closer to Brest and on a direct path to the west. The roads to Lviv from Brest are intersected in many places within a curved route. All possibilities need to be considered and caution advised.

Many were surprised by Putin's full scale invasion of Ukraine, you cannot think rationally concerning what his actions might be. Putin is not thinking in rational terms. He is thinking historically, nationalistically and therefore, emotionally. That makes him very dangerous. Listen to Anne Applebaum explain Putin's mindset better than I can in the link. Start at about 3:00 minutes in for Putin's perception of the world as he knows it.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1017713717

[BGBD]

23. It could be 5 miles a d it wouldn't matter

It's certain death.

[blue-wave]

24. Certain death for everyone on earth

The problem is Putin has made threats that are interpreted as threatening nuclear war. This is why I've been saying the guy is not mentally stable.

And now the Russians have captured the Chernobyl compound and high radiation levels from that area are being reported, likely from protective shields that were penetrated by the fighting.

Ask yourself this: Why do they need to occupy a nuclear waste zone? I don't have the answer, but there are some pretty scary scenarios.

[Straw Man]

44. This isn't the first time a world leader has rattled the nuclear saber.

Nixon did it with Vietnam. It's the "crazy man" theory, designed to frighten the adversary into hesitating.

[Gaugamela]

11. Jen Psaki just said that the administration believes Putin has ambitions to go

beyond Ukraine.

Seems crazy to me. Putin doesn’t have the military to take on NATO. If he invades Poland I wouldn’t be surprised to see a coup.

[Voltaire2]

13. See a map. Polish border with Ukraine.

[EYESORE 9001]

16. My wild-ass guess

is that Russian forces are getting in position to regulate the flow of refugees and confiscate any valuables they try to take with them.

[peggysue2]

17. This isn't good

On my way home I picked up a radio report that there was already a 2-mile long line of vehicles waiting to cross the border into Poland. Not sure where that was on the border but refugees would be sitting ducks under the circumstances.

[radius777]

27. If he wants WWIII he will get it.

NATO will fight Russia if they step in NATO territory - Biden/Harris and the other major Western leaders have made that crystal clear.

[roamer65]

31. If they come into Poland it's "game on".

NATO aircraft and troops will go into Ukraine and Belarus to chase them.

[Dirty Socialist]

34. They could be going for Lithuania

Brest is a convenient place to assemble because it happens to be a training center. Maybe they will go to Lithuania.

[Dirty Socialist]

41. We must send teoops to Poland NOW

And to the Baltic states

[DFW]

42. Look at the Polish border, and what it means from a Ukrainian point of view

With the Russian navy blocking all Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea, Poland is the only realistic chance of an overland lifeline to get any military hardware into Ukrainian hands for them to defend themselves with.

If there are massive Russian buildups on the Ukrainian-Polish border, I would think it is more to intercept and interdict western arms flowing east, rather than to facilitate Russian troops moving west.