Why the GOP will lose badly this fall

[Metaphorical]

I don't think that the invasion is going to end quickly. I think it is likely to drag on for months, even as NATO troops begin to get involved (40,000 troops have just been activated for the first time in decades).

However, it will have three significant effects here domestically.

1. Biden is now officially a war-time president in a battle against a clear tyrant on a likeable country, with every aspect of it broadcast on the Internet in real-time. His ratings are already climbing and may likely end up being higher than Bush's did after 9/11. This means that many of the more critical press outlets are now in the awkward position of appearing unpatriotic if they unload too heavily on Biden, and as so much of the criticism was largely manufactured, this is going to make it much harder for others to define him.

2. Trump's name is now mud. It's ironic that it was Putin that did that, but the reality has been that Trump has defined himself vis-a-vis his relationship with Putin. This is likely to mean that his influence, already waning, has just evaporated altogether. It also means that his most fervent followers are going to find themselves as pariahs, ignored by even local media, and seen as apologists for a tyrannical regime. I expect that the primaries are going to be a bloodbath for the Magats.

3. It takes money to create movements. My suspicion is that if you look at many of the deep pockets that have been supplying the MAGAt movement, you'll find laundered Russian money: highly lucrative contracts for very little actual work, significant overpayment on goods, purchases of properties at 3-4 times notional value, overnight bitcoin billionaires through hacked blockchains, and so forth. That money is all about to disappear, and with it the ability to create blind PACs, to donate in-kind expenses such as Stadium rentals, and even fund stations like OAN, Clear Channel, and Breitbart. It also means that even those people that haven't been getting Russian money are going to be far more circumspect about how they spend their own money, for fear of drawing attention to themselves. I also wouldn't be surprised if it hits organizations such as ALEC, which always seemed to have such an outsized influence given what it is.

I may be wrong on this, but I don't think so. By the time November rolls around, I think the GOP is going to be in complete disarray.

[left-of-center2012]

1. NATO troops are not going to get involved

Period

[Metaphorical]

3. Agreed, in Ukraine

However, NATO troops have already been activated, meaning that Poland, Finland, Estonia, and possibly Turkey are likely to see a fair number of them.

[airplaneman]

9. Finland is not in NATO - NATO troops will not be going there n/t.

[left-of-center2012]

12. We already have troops in NATO countries

Finland is not a NATO country.
I'm unaware of any US troops there.

[Bad Thoughts]

2. Devalued Ruble might have an effect, no? eom.

[Metaphorical]

5. You're probably right

Inflation on influence peddling is about to get severe.

[Mr.Bill]

4. And don't forget the NRA was getting a lot of money from Russians, too.

And I think they were laundering it for campaign donations. That'll all be gone, too.

[ret5hd]

6. Hey Putin! You done fucked up!

[honest.abe]

7. I have been thinking along these same lines as well.

Very possible.

[Murphyb849]

8. I agree

From your lips to God's ears

[JHB]

10. On point 3 you may underestimate how much American billionaires and multi-millionaires...

...fund the paranoid grievance culture of the Right, and have for decades.

it's what they've done long before the Russians became a factor in it. Putin simply cloned a second set of already-existing controls.

[czarjak]

11. Back to Bush through Rove through another Bush through Reagan through Nixon!

Eisenhower was the last Good One.

[ffr]

13. Oh yeah. With the Russian money stream severed, it'll be all to easy to see filthy GOP money now.

And Biden should be popular. He's done nothing but great things. Full stop. Chuck Toad is going to have to play nice or get bunched in with the unpatriots.

[liberalla]

14. There's been speculation that despite historical precedents, magats would have a tough time

this fall. I have been in that camp. However I thought it would be as a result of the Jan. 6 investigations, and the many court cases/ lawsuits coming down the pike, and what we would learn from those.

You've made some very good observations about Putin's attack on Ukraine and how the world has dramatically changed in the last 2 weeks or so. I think you're onto something with what you've laid out in your post. I have to think on this more in the morning. Thank you.

[cstanleytech]

15. I doubt many if any of the NATO troops will join in the fighting since Ukraine is not a member.