Is it possible that Ukraine can push Russian troops back away from the cities? Then"win"?

[JanMichael]

Because if they only keep control of the major metro areas, but stay surrounded, food and electricity and fuel and water and medicine will run out fast. Not to mention wastewater/sewer functions. That's a weakness of high density modern society. It requires a lot of resources to keep people healthy/alive so when they are cut off it goes bad fast. Toss in terror inducing indiscriminate shelling, which I would not put past Putin, and it is horrific. Air drops by NATO will help but only for certain problems like food/water and medicines.

But I read that Russia is also having logistical challenges (fuel, food, etc) too so how long does Ukraine have to hold?

Let's take it back a notch - Putin possibly expected "victory" by March 2nd. If the invasion really stalls, and Ukraine can stay viable (contest airspace superiority and stalemate until all of the EU weapons get there) is it possible that the tide could actually flip? If Putin didn't plan to keep troops moving past the first week of March then maybe?

Ok - new prediction - Russia (less resorting to nuclear then all bets off) actually loses. I mean gets beaten into disarray then has to retreat. When China invaded Vietnam in the late 70's they expected easy victory. While China did end up with significant territorial gains Vietnam definitely punched back harder than they expected (after 40 years of colonial fighting why China didn't get this I have no idea) and China has never attacked them again. Both sides say they "won" but it is a similar example of punching up in weight class.

I think it is obvious that Ukraine's last few years of fighting insurgencies has their forces much better prepared than Russia. Initial engagements have shown that. Plus it seems that like in many conflicts of the past Ukraine is starting to mobilize a International Brigade foe support. Is that enough?

We can only hope.

Sorry for wishful thinking but this is an atrocious situation. I cannot imagine seeing Ukraine fall to that monster troll (no offence to Trolls) of a human Putin.

[Wounded Bear]

1. Probably not. They don't have a lot of offensive capability...

Surrounding and laying siege to the cities could be an outcome, and yes, it would be ugly.

[JanMichael]

2. I'm putting it at 20-30% probability.

Only because it appears that Putin's plan has so far sucked and the banking thing is going to create chaos in Moscow. And that while the USSR had a force of fairly high quality since then the Russian military seems to have been totally degraded. They can send specialists to Syria to kills people and have some neat weapons but head to head large scale invasion fighting I am not so sure.

[Wounded Bear]

4. Lot of anecdotal evidence coming out that the Russians are untrained...

draftees that haven't been briefed on what they're actually doing. The Russian people, and it would seem many of the soldiers, are not behind this war.

[radius777]

3. Public utilities (heat, hot water, sewage, electricity) should all work.

I doubt the Russians would destroy critical infrastructure which would lead to scenes of hundreds of thousands of civiliians fleeing and many dying in the streets. They don't want that image on TV, which is why I think they've been trying to be surgical in their strikes. At some point they will have to let in humanitarian aid workers to provide food/meds etc as it runs out.

[Hoyt]

5. Not if Russians get desperate and cuts loose with more planes, shells,

bombs, start shooting anything that moves, etc. Hope it doesn’t go that far.