Why can't planes be used to stop the long Russian convoy?

[BigmanPigman]

I still can't underatand why some country can't help to do this. Would it start a world war or is it against some foreign relations rule/treaty? Can't Ukranian pilots fly them in from a neighboring country? I don't get it.

[PortTack]

1. You're gonna get your wish! 70 fighter jets were delivered to the Polish border by the E.U. union

That 40 mile bogged down convoy is in for a world of hurt!

https://vm.tiktok.com/TTPdS3Tuue/

The young man at the link is American/Ukraine with family in Kyiv. Speaks fluent Russian and has good sources besides family inside Ukraine

[BigmanPigman]

2. I thought I had read earlier today

that a country had sent some planes to the area but hadn't heard anything since. I hope they can get them up and flying without much training or maybe they already know how to fly them well. That's fantastic!!!

Thanks for the info.

[lagomorph777]

47. Poland is sending MiGs and Sukhoi - Ukraine pilots already fly those.

[Slammer]

19. details, details

Bulgaria provided 16 MiG-29s and 14 Su-25s

Poland provided 28 MiG-29s

Slovakia provided 12 MiG-29s.



Poland just before the announcement that the aircraft would be given over had donated a large number of R-73 short-range Infrared guided air-to-air missiles which will be used by the MiG-29's.

I'd be highly tempted to fire off a large number of those into the convoy to see if they're any good at being air-to-mud missiles. The Russians have got to have a hellacious number of fuel trucks in a convoy that big, not to mention self-propelled missile launchers and other highly combustible items.

A lot of the vehicles in that convoy appeared to be almost bumper-to-bumper. Setting off one might set off a line of them going off like firecrackers.

[Deminpenn]

30. MiG-29 and Su-25 specs

From wiki, MiG-29: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mikoyan_MiG-29#Specifications_(MiG-29)

From wiki, Su-25: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhoi_Su-25#Specifications_(Su-25/Su-25K,_late_production)

MiG-29 is a fighter, but capable of carrying air-to-ground rockets. Similar to F16, F/A-18.

Su-25 is close air support and capable of carrying air-to-ground rockets as well as a variety of bombs. Looks very similar to USMC AV-8B.

These are older aircraft, but still capable.

[lagomorph777]

48. That would be sweet.

[Hangingon]

59. They are dumping Warsaw Pact stuff

Good idea. Ukrainians are familiar with them.

[AngryOldDem]

28. GOOD!

This would be truly tragic if this were allowed to reach Kyiv.

Intervention or not, this convoy needs to be destroyed.

[samplegirl]

3. I said the same thing

tonight. Where are the bomber planes?
This is just horrible to watch on T.V. I’ve been watching so much of it. Peaceful people taken from their homes to fight a war they had no choice in.

[Straw Man]

4. The Russians have extremely good anti-aircraft capabilities.

Any planes attacking that convoy are going to be highly vulnerable to missile attacks.

[PortTack]

7. To that I say look at "the ghost of Kyiv." Military experts all say Russia has been unable to gain

Control of the air

[Straw Man]

8. Unfortunately, the "ghost of Kyiv" is an urban legend.

All documentary evidence of his existence has proven to be false. Even if he were real, his actions were purportedly in the early days of the invasion, when Russian anti-aircraft installations may not have yet been activated. Furthermore, the dogfight-style encounters described would have meant that there were Russian planes in the air in the same area, making the firing of Russian anti-aircraft missiles dangerous to their own planes.

[PortTack]

11. Urban legend or real straw man

Link to tweet

?s=21

[Straw Man]

12. Disagree.

Spreading falsehoods helps no one. In fact, it can be used to discredit the cause. There is plenty of real heroism going on, and that's what deserves our admiration.

[Captain Zero]

9. WHAT ABOUT CRUISE MISSLES?

seems like those convoys are sitting ducks for some kind of attack.
Some of those trucks have to be loaded with ammo too,
hit the right one kaboom.

[lapfog_1]

21. javelins, from 2km away

much less expensive than cruise missiles

target, fire, and forget (so the operator can disappear).

Cost - $80,000

Single operator , although 2 is normal for someone else to carry a second missile.

[gab13by13]

29. They need trained how to use them,

one doesn't just aim and pull the trigger. However, training isn't the problem, getting Javelins and Stingers into Ukraine seems to be the problem.

Weeks ago Malcomb Nance said the #1 one thing the US can do to help Ukraine is to send them Javelins and Stingers. Would be nice to replace Molotov cocktails with Javelins.

[lapfog_1]

36. They have Javelins already... so some members of the armed force are trained

They need more launchers and missiles. Tons more... like 10,000 javelins.

Getting them there is the key logistical problem.

Also, I'm not certain how many are in US and NATO stockpiles.

[mitch96]

52. Last I looked the Javelin is up to $175,000 Still worth it for it's capability...inflation?

Great vid btw, clears up a bunch of questions I had...
m

[lagomorph777]

49. Yup - a couple of Tomahawks, seemingly outta nowhere...

...would really make a mess of a big chunk of Putin's military.

[uponit7771]

17. +1

[Raine]

5. Russians will be sitting ducks, it's all Putin's fault that those soldiers will suffer and die. nt

[Laura PourMeADrink]

41. Exactly.

[NJCher]

6. We are all asking the same question

Wouldn’t Putin be protecting them with fighter jets, however? Then it would become an air war.

Remember the long convoy of trucks in Iraq that the United States destroyed?

It seems suicidal to let this convoy continue.

[Meowmee]

10. There are going to be a lot of lives lost and destroyed no matter what happens here

It does not seem to make sense to let the convoy continue on to their destination.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

42. Right. Would have been far less deadly to have stopped the whole thing from the get-go

[Meowmee]

64. I guess we will find out what will happen

Unfortunately 😿

[arthritisR_US]

13. What about drones?

[uponit7771]

18. This convoy is not naked like the first round, protected by armed troops and missiles. Better to

... mine the roads closer to the city after snow since mud will create impassible area's.

[Slammer]

20. Turkish drones

Yeah, those Turkish-made drones made hash out of convoys in the first couple of days of the war.

I don't know if the drones got shot down, ran out of ammo, or just quit making the news as much. But if I were the allies, I'd be looking to get the Ukrainians a lot more of them or at least a lot more of whatever ammo they use.

Obviously they're already trained on how to operate them effectively.

[Midnight Writer]

45. I think both armed and unarmed drones could make a real difference with little risk.

I'm really surprised that there aren't squadrons of drones harassing Russians every second.

[AverageOldGuy]

14. A few thoughts

Use drones to attack the convoy? A couple of days ago, CNN showed a small Russian convoy that had been wiped out. That kind of attack could have come only from the air, thus, it looks as though Ukrainians have (or had) some sort of capability to attack convoys, probably drones. Ukraine buys armed drones from Turkey.

Why would anyone in their right minds let a 30-mile-long convoy of vehicles develop in a war zone? That's not a convoy. It's a TARGET. Looks to me as though it's a huge clusterfuck -- all those vehicles need fuel. All the drivers and people in the vehicles need food, water, and someplace to use the toilet. Either something is wrong on the Russian side, or, the convoy is capable of protecting themselves.

[BigmanPigman]

24. If they blow up a big crater from the air

onto the beginning of the convoy would the rest of the vehicles be able to go around it? They're all on one road, is there a detour?

[Laura PourMeADrink]

43. Like the way you think!!!

[lagomorph777]

50. Getting into muddy season.

That could make off-roading not very fun at all for the convoy.

[Mike Nelson]

15. I think...

... the Russians are likely to have tight control over the airspace. Wouldn't the first strike be to attack the Russian air force? Of course, less traditional ways exist... and the Russians would respond by attacking whatever countries they conclude participated.

[FarPoint]

16. Where is Daenery's Dragon, Drogon?

Game of Thrones Dragons!....Sure did a great job of destroying the Lanister's convoy of " spoils train back to Westeros" when they attacked Highgarden....

[Slammer]

22. Maybe not a good idea

What happens when the Russians kill it then raise it from the dead?

Look at how many times they brought Rasputin back.

[FarPoint]

26. Hahahaha

You make a good point....

[Sympthsical]

25. It was my first thought

But then the pilots would go mad and start bombing Kyiv.

[FarPoint]

27. There ya go.....

Perfect....This is what came to mind....

[greenjar_01]

58. That's about the speed of it

[gab13by13]

23. People can't think in terms of US military capabilities,

Ukraine can only fight with the weapons it has. Ukraine doesn't have cruise missiles or F35 fighter jets and I doubt it has bombers.

It would be nice to get Stingers and Javelins to Ukraine and guns and ammunition, and night vision goggles, do it now. It isn't easy getting arms into Ukraine.

[Deminpenn]

31. Don't think in terms of B-29s and B-2s

but smaller attack aircraft like the the Su-25 or US A-4, A-6, AV-8.

[uncle ray]

32. a few things i've read:

the convoy may not be as rich a target as we lay people think, russia has previously used largely empty convoys to lure in the bigger guns. also, with the arms available to Ukraine, it may be better to let russia bring the fight to the edge of Kyiv where the ground defense is.

[Deminpenn]

33. One of CNN's military analysts said the

very close formation of the convoy showed that the troops were poorly trained and led because convoy vehicles should never be bumper-to-bumper as seen in the images.

[Johnny2X2X]

34. It's why it grew so much

The convoy was 3 wide at one point and very compressed, they went 1 wide and put some space between vehicles in it to stretch it out to 60 miles now.

[Deminpenn]

51. A few cruise missiles launched from

the US fleet would destroy that convoy in it's tracks. So would a squadron of A-10s.

If NATO were to immediately admit Ukraine, they could destroy the Russian military assuming it's true about 75% is now deployed against Ukraine.

None of that will happen, but it sure is tempting.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

44. And weren't the told they were going for a drill? Not a slaughter

[Tomconroy]

35. Apparently Ukraine no longer has the ability launch such an

attack. Without military intervention from the west Ukraine is doomed.

[allegorical oracle]

37. It would be terrific if that could happen. The hesitation could be due to the many

questions swirling as to Putin's state of mind. Intelligence may reveal that he's mentally too unstable.

[David__77]

38. Yes it would start a much bigger conflict.

…

[Papa-Ron]

39. Time for the US to send some A -10s to Ukraine

These planes love convoys.

[Alexander Of Assyria]

40. Cause another country getting involved militarily means a declaration of war on russia? And then...

[Emrys]

46. Letting the convoy stew for a while may have its own beneficial effects.

They'll be depleting resources they seem to have difficulty replenishing - food, fuel etc., all of which will be a further problem if they do try to put Kyiv under siege - plus the psychological toll of sitting there waiting for the order to move into unknown danger or an assault on them as sitting ducks will mount, and provide time to dwell on why they're doing this in the first place.

I still see confusion over how long the convoy is. 40 miles seems implausible. I believe one DUer pointed out a mistranslation where the convoy is actually 4 miles long and 40 miles from Kyiv. Long enough, but a bit less scary and more manageable.

[wnylib]

53. ABC and NPR say it is 40 miles long and

30 miles from Kyiv. BBC reported it as 60 kilometers long.

I don't think it is a translation error.

[Emrys]

54. Fine. I'd think that satellite images would provide conclusive proof, which I've not seen yet.

The difference is a matter of scale. My other points stand.

The bigger it is, the more troops and materiel are tied up just getting through each day till they're bottled through a narrow, vulnerable approach.

[wnylib]

56. I keep wondering what Russia is up to

with the convoy. Are they counting on NATO or some individual nation attacking the convoy in order to provoke all out war and an excuse to use nukes? Is the convoy empty and intended to intimidate Ukraine into surrendering or NATO and EU into abandoning Ukraine?

Or is it a real convoy, well protected by Russian air power, hell bent on destroying Kyiv?

What is the best way to deal with it? So far, I like another poster's suggestion to create a crater at the head of it, cause a pile up, and force the convoy off the road.

OTOH, Kyiv defense might work best inside the city instead of out in the open.

[Emrys]

60. The fog of war and all that ...

Goodness knows what's happening in the convoy itself (I suspect the rights for future dramatizations are being drawn up as we sit here in comfort), let alone in the chain of command up to the top. No doubt some fairly low-tech and low-cost countermeasures would make its progress very difficult. Even distributing supplies along it must be a problem. And as for hygiene and what happens with waste matter ...

The Russians seem flat-footed in everything that's going on, from their PR to disjointed attacks on the ground to the lack of an obvious endgame other than all-out carnage and smoking ruins. It maybe shows that having an all-powerful despot call all the shots means that plans and potential problems aren't thrashed out beforehand. And that surrounding yourself with yes men means you receive no reality checks. I believe this was the shape of the endgame with a previous despot in the middle of last century.

The unbelievable crap their spokes have been coming out with casts doubt that even they believe what they're spouting. If they do, they're in for even bigger problems.

It struck me the other day that currently Russia's not just a kleptocracy, it's a mendocracy. Tell Putin what he wants to hear, and you'll get on. But woe betide you when reality delivers its regular slaps in the face and he blames you for it.

[wnylib]

62. The EU has a no fly policy

for Russian planes over EU. With Ukraine coming into the EU, will they be providing air cover for Ukraine? Taking care of that convoy?

If they do, will Putin follow through on his threat to use nukes? Some experts on Russia, like Fiona Hill, say yes, he will.

There is more going on today than the admission of Ukraine to the EU.

[Emrys]

63. Ukraine has only been granted EU member candidate status at the moment.

Accession, even in this emergency (not least because of it and its fallout), won't happen overnight.

Until then, the EU's hands are as tied as NATO's.

[OnDoutside]

55. With that line of traffic so close together, there's bound to be a fair number of fuel tankers. Hit

them and you'll get a lot of close collateral damage.

[Emrys]

61. I wonder what the prospects for mutiny and/or desertion are among those in the middle or either end?

That could get very messy very quickly. Morale can't be high.

[greenjar_01]

57. Because Russia has more planes and is controlling air approaches to its lines

Why is this complicated?

[Straw Man]

65. Exactly.

A guerrilla attack with Stingers would stand a better chance, although it could be a suicide mission.