General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region Forums51% of Americans think US is in a recession or depression.
51% of Americans think US is in a recession or depression.
M$M Response: "... we don't know WHY they would think that ..."
EDIT: Remember, "the economy is bad" was pushed even when Obama was prez when there was no inflation and UE was 4.0% !!!
This is message zone flooding, just keep saying their message and that's what people remember.
Facts don't matter in message flooding, who gets there first does
This is working on human ANCHORING BIAS = https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases#Framing_effect
Dems need to get there FIRST and Ukraine message campaign is showing us how to do it !!!
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2022/02/27/poor-economic-mood-u-s-means-ukraine-crucial-biden-democrats/6945848001/
According to the Suffolk/USA TODAY poll, more voters are pessimistic on the state of the U.S. economy today than they have been in the last 6 years. When voters were asked to describe the U.S. economy as either in economic recovery, stagnation, recession, or depression, a majority of respondents (51%) believe the United States is in a recession or depression.
Dem messaging mechanics need to improve and Ukraine is showing the way; Flood a message zone with simple precise message FIRST and don't stop until that message is saturate in peoples minds.
We have the harder job because MAGA Media sets the "ratings" agenda for what people see in the news; what rates in MAGA Media the rest of the M$M will repeat, they need the eyes.
Heat map what the M$M is saying about issues and attack the false parts en force. That'll help partly but its reactive but if we FLOOD a message zone FIRST and precise and don't stop on major policy issues it'll work better.
That includes ALL MESSAGE MEDIUMS (print, air and SM) especially social media but I don't see the FLOOD of memes in volume the GQP sends theirs if at all on a LOT of issues.
democratsruletheday
(497 posts)Dems can't "message" properly. Nothing but negativity and a circular firing squad and posts like this don't help. Just BS IMHO
uponit7771
(90,304 posts)... in their ear aren't paying attention.
It's not like a group of Martians are telling Americans this bullshit, they're getting it from somewhere ... better attack the source or get to American ears first
Eliot Rosewater
(31,106 posts)uponit7771
(90,304 posts)... were M$M isn't dominate info pusher.
Remember, "the economy is bad" was pushed even when Obama was prez when there was no inflation and UE was 4.0% !!!
GQP targets human anchor bias by flooding a message zone first
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases#:~:text=The%20anchoring%20bias%2C%20or%20focalism%2C%20is%20the%20tendency%20to%20rely%20too%20heavily%E2%80%94to%20%22anchor%22%E2%80%94on%20one%20trait%20or%20piece%20of%20information%20when%20making%20decisions%20(usually%20the%20first%20piece%20of%20information%20acquired%20on%20that%20subject).%5B11%5D%5B12%5D%20Anchoring%20bias%20includes%20or%20involves%20the%20following%3A
Mr.Bill
(24,253 posts)depression means the dealership is out of pick-up trucks.
Eliot Rosewater
(31,106 posts)Mr.Bill
(24,253 posts)I may not be as sharp as I was in my younger years, but I have my moments.
WhiskeyGrinder
(22,309 posts)uponit7771
(90,304 posts)WhiskeyGrinder
(22,309 posts)us are feeling as a result of the pandemic and social unrest is easier to identify as a "recession." If we feel like we're struggling socially or mentally or emotionally, do we try to explain it as an economic problem? I know this pandemic illustrated for a lot of people just how precarious their positions are in our forced-scarcity economic model. Do they describe that as "recession"? Maybe. Don't know, though.
uponit7771
(90,304 posts)... getting there with their negative message first
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases#:~:text=The%20anchoring%20bias%2C%20or%20focalism%2C%20is%20the%20tendency%20to%20rely%20too%20heavily%E2%80%94to%20%22anchor%22%E2%80%94on%20one%20trait%20or%20piece%20of%20information%20when%20making%20decisions%20(usually%20the%20first%20piece%20of%20information%20acquired%20on%20that%20subject).%5B11%5D%5B12%5D%20Anchoring%20bias%20includes%20or%20involves%20the%20following%3A
jimfields33
(15,705 posts)Its downright ugly going to a grocery store. If prices can go down, the entire country will immediately see it and suddenly the economy will be great.
uponit7771
(90,304 posts)... again when it comes to economic issues.
A large organization can heat map mediums with what MAGA Media message on the economy is sending out.
We have have to get to these message mediums and zones FIRST with our message vs counter punching which isn't as effective.
Yes, dem jobs are harder when it comes to messaging
jimfields33
(15,705 posts)best in 50 years. I believe president Biden will say this. People need to feel it to.
uponit7771
(90,304 posts)... and the mediums have to be hit hard with simple message of "turn around is coming" or something like that.
RayGuns "morning in America" for instance is a good example, flood the message mediums with that and that's what sticks in peoples heads but its NOT a one time speech action
"It's downright ugly going to a grocery store"
You can say that again! It's THE topic of conversation everywhere right now.
OhZone
(3,212 posts)Groceries and gas.
I'm actually finding some great sales lately but it seems like a much bigger chore to keep the grocery bills down and we're raiding our canned goods stock and being tighter on not letting leftovers die. And ordering out less. I think it's the extra effort to shop when we have so much work to do is making things seem bad. I actually spent only 150$ the other day on groceries, which is really WAY low for us, but I had a limited, targeted list, you know, and I had to get brands I never tried, and while some items were up, some fav items I buy were on an amazingly low sale price - like my fav oatmeal was 1.99 and Bryers Ice cream was only 2.50! And there was plenty of cream cheese! ha
Julie and I actually make good money but we hate wasting it too.
uponit7771
(90,304 posts)... counter message too much
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases#:~:text=The%20anchoring%20bias%2C%20or%20focalism%2C%20is%20the%20tendency%20to%20rely%20too%20heavily%E2%80%94to%20%22anchor%22%E2%80%94on%20one%20trait%20or%20piece%20of%20information%20when%20making%20decisions%20(usually%20the%20first%20piece%20of%20information%20acquired%20on%20that%20subject).%5B11%5D%5B12%5D%20Anchoring%20bias%20includes%20or%20involves%20the%20following%3A
OhZone
(3,212 posts)I will say a lot of the chaos locally in my grocery stores is just the re-arranging of items.
I though they had removed ALL the chicken because of the bird flu scare, but, no, they moved it way way way down where it had never been before.
They also moved all the mac'n'cheese to a different aisle.
Wingus Dingus
(8,052 posts)since Donnie Dump? Do people even know anymore what a recession is? Or a depression? Even though we just lived through it twelve or fourteen years ago...
A HERETIC I AM
(24,363 posts)I'm curious what you think it was, because of the way you worded this;
"lived through it"
Through what?
Wingus Dingus
(8,052 posts)A HERETIC I AM
(24,363 posts)Because there are a lot of people on this board that were (and perhaps still are) calling it a depression.
They are two distinctly different economic phenomena.
I heard an excellent analogy back then;
"A recession is when an economy is brought to its knees.
A depression is when an economy is knocked flat on its back and can't get up"
Wingus Dingus
(8,052 posts)I have not lived through a depression, being only in my fifties.
uponit7771
(90,304 posts)... Russia's, Russia is getting CRUSHED by UKR with ever message medium flooded before they even got to the PR battlefield and it's hitting avg Russian citizen faster than economic sanctions.
UKR messaging success didn't depend on peoples intelligence it depended on a tactic of getting to message zone first and RELENTLESSLY flooding all mediums with Putler Bad and them good.
That was it, nothing to do with how smart the world was or wasn't
Wingus Dingus
(8,052 posts)I haven't seen any economic authorities state that we are in a recession, so where are people drawing that conclusion from? Was it the wording of the poll that suggested it, I wonder? Do people think that inflation = recession? That's why I think it's less Repub messaging (although they screech about it constantly) and more confusion/ignorance.
uponit7771
(90,304 posts)Wingus Dingus
(8,052 posts)have we really had great messaging.
uponit7771
(90,304 posts)Johnny2X2X
(18,975 posts)2021 was the best year for job growth in US history, best year for GDP growth in 40 years, and saw the highest wage growth in decades.
Inflation is an issue, but with wage growth being what it was it's not as big of an issue as people think. Dems never explain this, ever.
If Trump would have remained president, the GOP would literally be holding parades for him after a 2021 where jobs growth was the highest in history and GDP growth the highest since early Reagan. Dems barely even mention those big wins.
By some measures we just had the best economic year in our nation's history, and 51% think we're in a recession, my god have Dems failed at basic communication of the facts.
uponit7771
(90,304 posts)... we know we can do better than a country that's under attack right now.
If Trump would have remained president, the GOP would literally be holding parades for him after a 2021 where jobs growth was the highest in history and GDP growth the highest since early Reagan. Dems barely even mention those big wins.
RIGHT !!
The GQP is even great at negative messaging meaning people a message about something good in a negative way so everyone repeats the negative way but gets the picture of the good in their minds.
Its kinda like Barnum said; all press is good press
Johnny2X2X
(18,975 posts)When you deliver a message and 51% of the public doesn't get the message, the problem is not with the public, it's with the messenger.
I mean, my word, we're getting hammered on the economy after maybe the best economic year in our nation's history in terms of jobs, GDP, and wages. What's going to happen if there actually is a slowdown?
uponit7771
(90,304 posts)... "money aint good" and MAGA Media targeted human anchor biased
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases#:~:text=The%20anchoring%20bias%2C%20or%20focalism%2C%20is%20the%20tendency%20to%20rely%20too%20heavily%E2%80%94to%20%22anchor%22%E2%80%94on%20one%20trait%20or%20piece%20of%20information%20when%20making%20decisions%20(usually%20the%20first%20piece%20of%20information%20acquired%20on%20that%20subject).%5B11%5D%5B12%5D%20Anchoring%20bias%20includes%20or%20involves%20the%20following%3A
Then they target human cascade - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases#:~:text=Availability%20cascade%2C%20a%20self%2Dreinforcing%20process%20in%20which%20a%20collective%20belief%20gains%20more%20and%20more%20plausibility%20through%20its%20increasing%20repetition%20in%20public%20discourse%20(or%20%22repeat%20something%20long%20enough%20and%20it%20will%20become%20true%22).%5B123%5D%20See%20also%20availability%20heuristic.
Wingus Dingus
(8,052 posts)will gladly say that not only are we in a recession AND a depression, we're also living under godless communist tyrants, all our rights have been trampled and we are about to collapse! But especially if the poll used the words "recession" or "depression", then people are suggestible and latched on to those to describe higher prices in grocery stores and gas pumps--because they're ignorant. That's what I think happened. That said, we definitely need to push a counter message, fast.
uponit7771
(90,304 posts)... 70 year record profits because they raised prices not MOSTLY due to inflation.
Then we target human cascade bias - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases#:~:text=Availability%20cascade%2C%20a%20self%2Dreinforcing%20process%20in%20which%20a%20collective%20belief%20gains%20more%20and%20more%20plausibility%20through%20its%20increasing%20repetition%20in%20public%20discourse%20(or%20%22repeat%20something%20long%20enough%20and%20it%20will%20become%20true%22).%5B123%5D%20See%20also%20availability%20heuristic.
Wingus Dingus
(8,052 posts)you couldn't find toilet paper and Clorox wipes or pasta or chicken breasts--and my husband and I said, "Let's see if these prices ever come back down after the pandemic eases...YEAH RIGHT!" Everyone took advantage of the pandemic/staffing issues to raise prices, and that appears to be permanent. Assholes.
uponit7771
(90,304 posts)... using some of the same message techniques MAGA media does.
We have the "corps are greedy" message zone waiting to be hit hard
MenloParque
(512 posts)States beyond CA, OR, NV, and Arizona and nowhere in these states are even the slightest signs of a recession. Far from it!
uponit7771
(90,304 posts)haele
(12,640 posts)Inflation is not the same as depression or recession.
Jobs and wages are up, productivity is up, businesses are making record profits, and employers are still fighting to hire people.
The inflation we're seeing is artificial.
Those businesses making record profits have jacked prices up so they can make even more profit and make democrats look bad. And they're using "supply chain" or "higher wages" as an excuse.
The mass media is letting them get away with it, too.
Haele
uponit7771
(90,304 posts)leftstreet
(36,101 posts)No one cares how the problem is defined
uponit7771
(90,304 posts)... get 70yr net profit increases without greedily increasing prices which is what they did
We need to counter message using coming good PR techniques like Ukraine is doing with their attack by Russia.
The Ukrainian president is ALWAYS ON and doesn't stop day by day flooding every message medium with "Putler bad, come help us'
We need more than just one speech, it doesn't flood message mediums its just a start and we COULD flood those mediums with "corps being greedy"
Then we can work on targeting human cascade bias - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases#:~:text=Availability%20cascade%2C%20a%20self%2Dreinforcing%20process%20in%20which%20a%20collective%20belief%20gains%20more%20and%20more%20plausibility%20through%20its%20increasing%20repetition%20in%20public%20discourse%20(or%20%22repeat%20something%20long%20enough%20and%20it%20will%20become%20true%22).%5B123%5D%20See%20also%20availability%20heuristic.
haele
(12,640 posts)And the inflation you are experiencing at the grocery stores is based primarily on corporate greed, not shortages.
Shortage/supply chain issues = less variety, slightly higher prices to compensate. Small, local businesses are unable to get parts or products for resale and face closure.
Greed = 15% to 20% higher prices while the corporations behind those products are making record profits over the past year, despite supply chain issues, higher labor costs, and worker shortages.
Not saying anyone is dumb, other than perhaps the Media in general is playing dumb just to rile the public up.
When working people - or even people on supplemental income support or retirement - are priced out of housing and survival basics, that's not a recession or depression, though it might feel like it to those people. That's a sign of straight out capitalist greed.
Haele
uponit7771
(90,304 posts)... with "corp greed" and even do a Trump; go to the point of doing something almost bad to highlight what your opponent is doing that's horrible.
Putlers Whore was GREAT at this and MAGA Media was right behind him even though they would just make up the bad dems were doing.
We can do the same, this is human behavior science ... not just the art of what people are thinking
Caliman73
(11,726 posts)Those "greedy corporations" also donate to Democratic politicians. They are not likely to call out groups that make contributions to election campaigns. Those politicians to call out corporate greed, like Bernie Sanders and AOC are routinely criticized even here on DU.
Sympthsical
(9,041 posts)And with food and energy price increases, that's what's on their minds.
You can lament it, lambast it, be mad about it. It doesn't matter. Getting angry with them is not going to work. "I know you're paying a lot more than you used to, but why aren't you happy, asshole!" I mean, that's a unique messaging campaign, I'll give it that. Is that the one Democrats should be doing?
You can point out all the economic indicators you want. You'll technically be right - the economy as a whole is doing a lot better.
But "as a whole" doesn't help when food items go up 25% or more, when filling the car makes you look askance at the final pump price.
All politics is local, and you can't get more local than someone's wallet.
uponit7771
(90,304 posts)... targeting human anchor bias-
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases#:~:text=The%20anchoring%20bias%2C%20or%20focalism%2C%20is%20the%20tendency%20to%20rely%20too%20heavily%E2%80%94to%20%22anchor%22%E2%80%94on%20one%20trait%20or%20piece%20of%20information%20when%20making%20decisions%20(usually%20the%20first%20piece%20of%20information%20acquired%20on%20that%20subject).%5B11%5D%5B12%5D%20Anchoring%20bias%20includes%20or%20involves%20the%20following%3A
Then they target human cascade bias - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases#:~:text=Availability%20cascade%2C%20a%20self%2Dreinforcing%20process%20in%20which%20a%20collective%20belief%20gains%20more%20and%20more%20plausibility%20through%20its%20increasing%20repetition%20in%20public%20discourse%20(or%20%22repeat%20something%20long%20enough%20and%20it%20will%20become%20true%22).%5B123%5D%20See%20also%20availability%20heuristic.
When Obama was prez UE was 4% and no inflation and MAGA Media still flooding with "economy bad"
Sympthsical
(9,041 posts)(Just changed from a psych major), but at the end of the day, you can't tell people they don't feel or experience what they feel and experience.
Politics is about feeling much of the time. So when thinking of what kind of message to craft, it has to be about that. Of course, the MSM constantly bleating about how horrible things are has an effect. Look at crime (well, not recently at least). It was going down for decades, and people kept thinking it was increasing. Because when they turned on the tv, they saw every horrible thing that could be mustered.
I think if our party was smart, they would pivot this. Instead of pointing out economic indicators - which absolutely no one cares about - point it squarely at corporations. Most people are completely ready to hear that message. No one cares if the official UE is 4.0%. Absolutely no one. I have never had this conversation in my kitchen before. "Did you know unemployment is at historic lows? Man, our household is doing great!"
But I was absolutely fuming to my partner the other day that a can of coffee had increased $2.50. Oh! The petty bitching that ensued was epic and completely out of proportion. If you had told me in that moment, "You know, the CEO of Folgers just got a $3 million bonus," my ire would've been usefully directed (and away from politicians).
It's all very, "Read the room. Know your audience."
Throwing stats at people isn't accomplishing that.
uponit7771
(90,304 posts)uponit7771
(90,304 posts)... belongs.
I just reread your post
onethatcares
(16,163 posts)try to get a seat at a half decent restaurant on a Friday night. Or count the number of new vehicles on the road.
What depression I feel is due to the fact that so many Americans are dumber than shit on a stick and vote against their own interests.
uponit7771
(90,304 posts)... at it.
Remember they did the same thing during Obama admin when UE was 4% and there was no inflation
It's because MAGA Media targeted human anchor biased
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases#:~:text=The%20anchoring%20bias%2C%20or%20focalism%2C%20is%20the%20tendency%20to%20rely%20too%20heavily%E2%80%94to%20%22anchor%22%E2%80%94on%20one%20trait%20or%20piece%20of%20information%20when%20making%20decisions%20(usually%20the%20first%20piece%20of%20information%20acquired%20on%20that%20subject).%5B11%5D%5B12%5D%20Anchoring%20bias%20includes%20or%20involves%20the%20following%3A
Then they target human cascade - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases#:~:text=Availability%20cascade%2C%20a%20self%2Dreinforcing%20process%20in%20which%20a%20collective%20belief%20gains%20more%20and%20more%20plausibility%20through%20its%20increasing%20repetition%20in%20public%20discourse%20(or%20%22repeat%20something%20long%20enough%20and%20it%20will%20become%20true%22).%5B123%5D%20See%20also%20availability%20heuristic.
inthewind21
(4,616 posts)And people fell for it. And that's on them. So I agree that a LARGE part of the public is dumb as a box of rocks. And wikipedia is NOT going to convince me otherwise. Ironic you use wikipedia, it's the MOST vulnerable to manipulation "source" of information out there.
uponit7771
(90,304 posts)Obama in 15 had 4% UE rate without inflation and the MAGA message was still economy bad.
No, we need to own up to message mechanics and get it right.
Also, the wiki page I posted is solid science and well sourced ... I'd rather believe the data
inthewind21
(4,616 posts)andym
(5,443 posts)Economic growth was actually high, but inflation caused people to sour on the economy. Carter's appointment of Volcker as Fed chairman ended it-- but at high cost as the Fed raised interest rates to unheard of levels-- the strong medicine took 3 years, so Reagan unfairly got the credit instead of Carter.
uponit7771
(90,304 posts)... but they had to counter message which bit them in the ass.
In this case Obama had 4% UE rate with no inflation and MAGA Media message was "economy bad"
.. "money aint good" and MAGA Media targeted human anchor biased
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases#:~:text=The%20anchoring%20bias%2C%20or%20focalism%2C%20is%20the%20tendency%20to%20rely%20too%20heavily%E2%80%94to%20%22anchor%22%E2%80%94on%20one%20trait%20or%20piece%20of%20information%20when%20making%20decisions%20(usually%20the%20first%20piece%20of%20information%20acquired%20on%20that%20subject).%5B11%5D%5B12%5D%20Anchoring%20bias%20includes%20or%20involves%20the%20following%3A
Then they target human cascade - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases#:~:text=Availability%20cascade%2C%20a%20self%2Dreinforcing%20process%20in%20which%20a%20collective%20belief%20gains%20more%20and%20more%20plausibility%20through%20its%20increasing%20repetition%20in%20public%20discourse%20(or%20%22repeat%20something%20long%20enough%20and%20it%20will%20become%20true%22).%5B123%5D%20See%20also%20availability%20heuristic.
We need to get there first, Ukraine PR against Russia is crushing Russians and they see that first even before the economic consequences
albacore
(2,398 posts)How about applying Occam's razor to the behavior of a startling number of Murikans....They're just Stupid.
Messaging and framing can't overcome Stupid.
uponit7771
(90,304 posts)If it was JUST people being stupid why are they breaking stupid towards MAGA Media messages?
tia
albacore
(2,398 posts)fescuerescue
(4,448 posts)The GDP, unemployment data, inflation data and job start data.
uponit7771
(90,304 posts)... those messaging techniques (KISS) and use it against the GQP.
progree
(10,896 posts)Real GDP increased 5.7 percent, unchanged from the prior estimate, in 2021 (from the 2020 annual level to the 2021 annual level), in contrast to a decrease of 3.4 percent in 2020 (table 1)
"Real" means inflation-adjusted in Commerce Dept. parlance.
iemanja
(53,016 posts)and don't realize that's a sign of a hot economy rather than a depression.
uponit7771
(90,304 posts)... mechanics to do so is a tight window
sinkingfeeling
(51,438 posts)uponit7771
(90,304 posts)... and we need to apply better message mechanics
WarGamer
(12,373 posts)One must understand... from a POLITICAL perspective...
The US public runs and votes on FEELINGS.
When gas is $5/gal and a Big Mac combo is $12 and you can't buy a damn Corolla without paying $2000 over MSRP...
They think that's a recession.
No money in the pocket, that's a depression.
This is why elections in troubled times can be dangerous for the ruling party.
JCMach1
(27,553 posts)speculation.
Real estate for purchase AND rental right now is killing middle and working class wallets right now.
Something will have to give.