If, for any reason, Vladimir Putin were to die suddenly,

[MineralMan]

would the current misadventure in Ukraine continue? I tend to doubt it, but I don't actually know the answer, nor do I have enough information to calculate the odds.

For any reason. He could have a stroke or a cardiac event. Someone in his own country might take it upon themselves to cause his death. Even a foreign power might decide that they have had enough of him.

I suspect this question is currently under discussion in various places.

What do you think? Would the Ukraine invasion end if that happened? I tend to think so. It's not going very well, it seems.

[JustAnotherGen]

1. i *think**

It would end pretty quickly.

This isn't going well for them.

[MineralMan]

2. So it seems to me, as well.

It's a very old question when it comes to dictators and tyrants, isn't it?

[JustAnotherGen]

16. Yes it is

Someone posted - is this like Operation Barbarossa? I sure hope note. It took Hitler another 4 years to kill himself - after killing 3 Million Russians - and another 1 million Russians for being Jewish. They were at it for four months.

I don't think Ukraine can stand for four months on their own.

[MineralMan]

19. Well, I doubt that I'm the first one to wonder about this.

It's not my usual line of thought.

[JustAnotherGen]

21. I know it's not

You aren't given to hyperbole.

[getagrip_already]

45. doesn't it depend on who his successor is?

There are likely hawks at his elbow. Succession may just go to the most viscous and opportunist among those that remain.

In which case, things could intensify.

[blm]

3. His partner, Erik Prince, might take his place.

Or Trump. 😏

[MineralMan]

6. Highly unlikely.

Neither, I think, speaks Russian.

[11 Bravo]

56. Hell, Trump barely speaks English.

[redstatebluegirl]

4. We were talking about this last night.

We came to the conclusion that it is highly likely someone in his own country will take him out at some point and the incursion into Ukraine would stop.

[MineralMan]

9. That's certainly possible, although Putin appears to be very careful

about who is near him. His long table is evidence of that, I think.

[redstatebluegirl]

24. These autocrats always have someone around them they trust who they shouldn't.

I'm sure Putin has one of those.

[MineralMan]

27. Yes, that's often the case.

It's also common enough that others have designs on the position of power.

[MineralMan]

30. Perhaps so.

[lagomorph777]

10. Not easy though. Even if you get a seat at the table with him,

you need a good sniper scope and a steady hand.

[mahina]

62. You, Adm Nikolas Stavridis (retired),

and Krugman. And me.

[lagomorph777]

5. Yeah, it's his personal glory play.

Nobody else wants to waste their Roubles on it.

[MineralMan]

15. A rather inglorious glory, it seems to me.

I doubt that many see eye to eye with him on this.

[lagomorph777]

17. Indeed!

[bdamomma]

61. those

at the other end of the table did not look impressed.

So they would have Putin take down their own country because of his delusions of grandeur.

[hunter]

7. At best Russia would get some boring technocrat with only a mild stench of corruption.

More likely Russia gets another kleptocrat, but not one whose head is still stuck in the twentieth century.

Either way Ukraine wins.

[Karadeniz]

8. I think at this point they'd grab any excuse to withdraw.

[Cognitive_Resonance]

11. This ends when he's dead. nt

[hlthe2b]

12. Given he's never given any remote signal of a chosen successor, no, I think his misadventure would

end. Not sue what the vacuum would bring, but...

[OAITW r.2.0]

57. I wonder about this too.

Sooner, rather than later, I think Putin will be dealt with, especially if he goes into MAD mode.

At this point, I have no idea which side (pro-Putin or pro-Navalny) side wins out. I think it will be a bloody internal struggle, either way.

[Generic Other]

13. I tend to think the long table is telling

He is scared — of covid, of anyone who opposes him (especially anyone he poisoned or imprisoned), of Zelinsky, of Ukrainians freedom fighters, of Syrians, of Biden, of oligarchs, of his own people even.

Of course, he’s also a cornered rat, so that makes him dangerous.

I assume you recall the old duck and cover drills of our childhood. I think about them nightly. Hadn’t done this for years.

[FakeNoose]

14. It would be over in a heartbeat

... Putin's heartbeat that is. When that happens, all this evil is done and over.

[PJMcK]

18. All I know is what I've read in news reports

So this is just my opinion.

The war is going badly for Russia. Their equipment is failing and their soldiers don't have their hearts in the fight as do the Ukrainians. I think the next Russian leaders would end the war immediately, begin withdrawing and try to mend some international fences. Russia is going to feel the pain of Putin's misadventure for years.

One way or another, this is not going to be beneficial for Russia. It was a tremendous mistake.

By the way, MM, the third sentence of your second paragraph is wonderfully artful!

[MineralMan]

22. You're too kind.

[BlueCheeseAgain]

20. I think it depends on how he were to suddenly die.

If he is killed in a coup by fellow Russians who want to end the war, then the war likely ends quickly.

If he dies of natural causes, I guess it's up to what his top henchpeople want.

If he is killed by a foreign power-- well then I suppose the war might even escalate.

[MineralMan]

23. Hmm...perhaps so.

Assuming that the cause of death was known.

"Another glass of tea, Mr. President?"

[moondust]

25. Medvedev?

Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev threatens to cut diplomatic ties to Western countries in response to sanctions over Ukraine

I don't know if he would be the one to take over but this does not signal retreat.

[tavernier]

26. They will never get him.

Just ask Osama Bin Laden and Saddam Hussein.

[Sogo]

28. Best sign seen at protests in Europe:

"Let's fast forward to the part where you die in a bunker."

[MineralMan]

29. LOL!

[Chainfire]

31. If Putin gave up the ghost, it would be very easy for Russia to back down.

It doesn't mean that that is what they would wish to do, because there is a hell of a lot of money at stake in eliminating the Ukrainian government and the oil competition.

[Emile]

32. I think the war would quickly come to an end!

[MineralMan]

33. So do I. It's not a good war, as wars go.

It's hard to see any real benefit to anyone in it.

[Beastly Boy]

34. Very unlikely in the short term. But Putin's army remaining in Ukraine long term is even less likely

So I am torn. One way or another, the war will end badly for Putin. Or Putin will end badly for the war. Can we call this a toss up?

[MineralMan]

35. Well, you make a good point.

Invading Ukraine was a strategical mistake. Putin decided badly, and it shows. While his forces can wreak a lot of havoc while there, Russia really can't occupy Ukraine for any extended period of time. It's too big, really.

I suspect that Russia will end up with those two "republics" under their control, but not much else. In the process, they've screwed their own economy and hardened opposition to Russia just about everywhere.

The problem is that Putin may be incapable of accepting the loss and retreating back into Russia's impoverished shell. I don't know for sure, but even he must be seeing that this is not going well.

[Beastly Boy]

44. I see a lot of desperation in Putin's actions.

I don't think he went full retard, but he is cementing his legacy in a way he never intended. No matter what, he will end this war a broken man, both physically and mentally. I don't see Putin lingering for too long after that. After he is gone, so will the two "republics" he created. Maybe Crimea will join them as well.

And Russia? Very likely, it will end up as broken as Putin, and it will stand a real risk of becoming China's sphere of influence. I really pity the Russian people at that point.

[hunter]

63. Russia will be split like Hitler's Germany was after World War II, but with much less drama.

Europe and the U.S.A. will control the West, and China will control the East, all under the fiction of Russian autonomy.

And most Russians, on both sides of the divide, will silently note that their usual standard of living seems to be much improved.

Human political ideologies and religions don't become entirely irrelevant until the mid twenty second century, but we're on our way.

[Gore1FL]

36. Too many variables to answer this question in any way other than uninformed guessing. nt

[MineralMan]

38. Yes, of course.

We all have very limited information. However, it remains an interesting question, I think.

There are others, though, who have more information. Perhaps their calculus indicates something.

[relayerbob]

37. Russia's best interests would suggest taking him out

Then blame everything on him, while using his fortune, or what's left of it for reparations. Best case, they do a data dump on all the BS he's played in the West

[MineralMan]

40. Perhaps so.

[OAITW r.2.0]

58. I hope that data dump will include info on a certain Party and former President.

It would immediately deflect attention away from the Russians and create a lot of political/social problems for the good ole USA.

[AllaN01Bear]

39. who is in line to replace him. in the old days they had the polet buearu to do that ?

[MineralMan]

41. I don't have the answer to that question.

I think Putin believes himself to be somewhat immortal, so there may not be a line of succession. Again, though, I don't know.

[AllaN01Bear]

42. thanks .

[Jilly_in_VA]

54. Lavrov thinks he will

and he might, in the short term, but I don't think he's overly popular with the oligarchs. They will, as someone says, likely pick a boring technocrat, but that could be very good for the rest of the world.

And you know what? I honestly miss Gorbachev. The man had some humanity to him, at least.

[Pantagruel]

43. My daydream is the convoy

runs out of gas and food and the Generals surrender to Ukraine. That triggers an uprising at home in Russia and Putin is taken out.

Haven't figured out the who replaces him bit yet.

[Maeve]

46. I suspect some generals are asking the same question

[MineralMan]

47. Could well be.

Generals tend to be realists.

[LiberatedUSA]

48. Let me answer a question with a question.

What safe guards are in place to prevent Putin from deciding to go out with nuclear suicide on the world? What protocols are in place, in Russia, to prevent Putin from such an event?

[MineralMan]

49. I have no idea what the protocols are in Russia.

I don't even know if there are any such things there.

[Tree Lady]

50. I am sure that thought is in millions of peoples

Heads throughout the world, why we are being careful about how we help Ukraine.

[Jedi Guy]

55. Well...

Russia's nuclear doctrine does allow for a first strike protocol from what I've read. So from that I infer that if he authorized a launch, it would go forward unless someone between him and the button suddenly decided he or she didn't feel like being the biggest mass murderer in human history. Not exactly what I'd call comforting.

Perhaps even less so is that since the days of the USSR, there has been a dead man's switch on their nuclear arsenal, and it's still active when they want it to be. So for instance, if their government were decapitated (by a first strike from the West, say) and communication with this system is lost, it will automatically launch their arsenal at pre-selected targets with no human interaction required. The system has been referred to as Perimeter or Dead Hand over the years.

So bottom line is that if he decides to go out with a real bang, I don't see much that'd stop him apart from the people around him growing a conscience at the last minute. Either he foresees the fall of his regime and gives the order, or the regime falls and Dead Hand does what it was designed to do because no one left knows how to stop it.

As of late January, the International Bulletin of Atomic Scientists had the doomsday clock at 100 seconds to midnight. One wonders what the next update will be.

[marie999]

51. Vocativ has a good article.

https://www.vocativ.com/world/russia/happen-russia-putin-died/index.html

[OAITW r.2.0]

60. Well, that was a depressing read.....

[Stuart G]

52. Yes, The Invasion Would End Immediately Because It's Putin's Invasion. It is that simple

I might add, this is Putin's mistake. He will always be known for it. And it ain't a small mistake, it is a .......

................VERY HUGE MISTAKE. ....................................................

i honestly think that it is..... "The Mistake" ...whatever that means.

............Thanks for posting this topic....

[Pobeka]

53. Saving face.

I have been wondering how Putin could be talked into backing out with a way for him to save face.

Your post made me think -- for *Russia*, a mysterious death of dear leader followed by immediate withdrawal gives the country itself at least a veneer of saving face.

[fescuerescue]

59. If it were not a natural death

It really depends on how orchestrated it.

Sometimes the guy who replaces the bad guy....is even worse.

Truly natural event? The replacement leader would declare success for Russian and then withdrawn. Taking credit for both the success and the peace that follows.