Feeding the Bear: A Closer Look at Russian Army Logistics and the Fait Accompli

[Nevilledog]

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Paul Krugman
@paulkrugman
This is fascinating: an article on Russian logistics published well in advance of the Ukraine invasion. Basically the Russians have far too few trucks to support their forces if they move far from railheads 1/

warontherocks.com
Feeding the Bear: A Closer Look at Russian Army Logistics and the Fait Accompli - War on the Rocks
Russia’s military buildup along the border with Ukraine has clearly gotten the attention of policymakers from Kiev to Washington, D.C. CIA Director Bill
3:40 PM · Mar 1, 2022

https://warontherocks.com/2021/11/feeding-the-bear-a-closer-look-at-russian-army-logistics/

Russia’s military buildup along the border with Ukraine has clearly gotten the attention of policymakers from Kiev to Washington, D.C. CIA Director Bill Burns flew to Moscow to try to avert a crisis, while U.S. intelligence officials are reportedly warning NATO allies that a Russian invasion of large parts of Ukraine can’t be ruled out.

The possibility of Russian aggression against Ukraine would have huge consequences for European security. Perhaps even more concerning would be a Russian attack against a NATO member itself. Moscow might want to undermine security in the Baltic states or Poland, for instance, but could the Russian government successfully carry out a large-scale invasion of those countries? If recent wargames are any indication, then the answer is a resounding yes — and it could do so pretty easily. In a 2016 War on the Rocks article, David A. Shlapak and Michael W. Johnson projected that the Russian army would overrun the Baltic states in three days.

Most of these wargames, such as RAND’s Baltic study, focus on fait accompli, an attack by the Russian government aimed at seizing terrain — then quickly digging in. This creates a dilemma for NATO: launch a costly counter-attack and risk heavy casualties and possibly a nuclear crisis or accept a Russian fait accompli and undermine faith in the credibility of the alliance. Some analysts have argued that these seizures are much more likely to be small in size, limited to one or two towns. While that scenario should, of course, be studied, the concern about the feasibility of a fait accompli in the form of a major invasion still stands.

While the Russian army definitely has the combat power to achieve these scenarios, does Russia have the logistics force structure to support these operations? The short answer is not in the timelines envisioned by Western wargames. In an initial offensive — depending on the fighting involved — Russian forces might reach early objectives, but logistics would impose requirements for operational pauses. As a result, a large land grab is unrealistic as a fait accompli. The Russian army has the combat power to capture the objectives envisioned in a fait accompli scenario, but it does not have the logistic forces to do it in a single push without a logistical pause to reset its sustainment infrastructure. The Russian Aerospace Forces (with a sizable tactical bomber and attack aircraft force) and attack helicopters can also pick up fire support to alleviate artillery ammunition consumption.

*snip*

[RainCaster]

1. Great article!

Very lengthy and detailed. Written last fall, it was very prescient and describes the weaknesses Russia has doing resupply support.

[gratuitous]

2. Huh

I wonder if Putin fell prey to our old nemesis the rosy scenario?

[Irish_Dem]

3. The Russians don't have good logistic capability away from railway lines.

So they will have trouble with a full scale invasion.

They have the combat power to invade a country in three days.
But they cannot provide a supply chain so it cannot do so in a single push. It has to take pauses to replenish supplies.

Air Power will have to take over to cover artillery shortages.

How crazy is this?

[Happy Hoosier]

4. And right now it seems...

That even their combat power is overestimated. They have suffered heavy casualties.

[Irish_Dem]

6. Right, the glowing report doesn't seem to match what we are seeing in the field right now.

The Russian troops are suffering casualties by civilians! Some of them regular Ukrainian housewife types. Some of them throwing homemade bombs into tanks.

On paper Russia is supposed to have the combat power to invade a country in three days, but cannot do it in a single push and will have to stop periodically to re-supply.

We are not seeing this. They have not captured the air space over Ukraine and have not captured Kyiv. They have not killed or captured Ukrainian leaders or generals.

[lindysalsagal]

5. According to this article, they are dependent on getting control of Ukraine's railway

If their abilities rely on just that, we know exactly where to focus the munitions, don't we?

[Irish_Dem]

7. Exactly. The Ukraine Army must start blowing up the railways and bridges.

[Victor_c3]

9. Does Ukraine use the Russian/Soviet gauge rail?

The articles mentioned mostly Poland and the Baltic states and their lack of use of this gauge. If Ukraine doesn’t use the Soviet/Russian gauge rail, then it’s not quite as important to destroy this infrastructure.

That being said, I’m sure the commanders on the ground are aware of this and are acting the best they can to limit their vulnerabilities.

[Victor_c3]

8. Very insightful article

It puts the estimates that up to 800 vehicles were destroyed from a Russian support convoy I was reading earlier today into some perspective. No telling what exactly all those vehicles were but, if that article is correct (and I think it is), the Russian military can’t spare to lose any of its logistical vehicles.

[crickets]

10. K&R for visibility.

[csziggy]

11. My worry is that Putin is for the long game - and will keep nibbling away parts of Ukraine

Crimea in 2014, now the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. If nothing more is gained this time, then Putin will wait a few years as he incorporates those oblasts into Russian territory and try again.

The hopeful (?) part is that Putin is not a young man and does not decades to work on this plan and his military does not seem to have the capability or stomach for an invasion that can successfully take the entire country of Ukraine, especially as Western forces are building to provide support for Ukraine.