Low-profile Russian air force puzzles Western experts

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

Russia's air force still does not enjoy total superiority in the skies above Ukraine despite its overwhelming numerical advantage, part of the reason for the army's slow progress on the ground, experts say.

According to strategic intelligence research service Janes, Russia's air force comprises 132 bombers versus none for Ukraine, 832 fighter jets against 86 for Ukraine, and 358 transport planes against 63 for Kyiv.

Other aerial weapons show a similarly crushing asymmetry, except for drones of which Ukraine has 66 and Russia 25.

Even though Russia has not engaged its entire air force in the conflict, its forces would still have been expected to rule the Ukrainian air space by now, experts say.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/low-profile-russian-air-force-puzzles-western-experts/ar-AAUtRhW

[Turbineguy]

1. Army vehicle replacements

bring a bigger vig to Putin than planes?

[honest.abe]

2. Indeed. That is weird. Seems that would be their biggest advantage.

Or perhaps their is also a moral problem among the Russian pilots.

[Beetwasher.]

3. I Bet Parts for MIG's Fetch a Good Sum

On the black market. Takes its toll, apparently.

[Irish_Dem]

4. Air power should have been one of the first Russian strategies.

Bomb the cities and military installations.
Get control of the airports.
Control the air space.

I don't understand what Putin is doing.

[Irish_Dem]

14. Russia has 1322 military aircraft.

Hard to imagine all of them were sabotaged. They should have been kept in secure guarded hangers on military bases, so would have been hard to tamper with them.

And even if some were lost, they still have plenty of aircraft to fight a war.

Generally you fight the war in front of you. But they could have held back planes and still had plenty of planes to exert air superiority quickly in Ukraine which only has a total of 149 military aircraft.

Putin must have thought Zelensky was going to surrender right away.
And he didn't need to fight a real war.

But certainly Putin's military intelligence officers knew better and would have reported Ukrainian resistance, etc.

None of it makes sense to me.

[denbot]

32. He would need every single plane to take on NATO

He may be going for the brass ring, or at the least that could be an option should the opportunity arise.

[underpants]

5. Maybe he thought he could take it without damaging it

You’d think they would have adjusted by now.

[crickets]

16. Yep. Putin may have wanted a mostly intact country rather than rubble,

with a puppet regime installed to carry on as though all is well. Obviously that's not going to work given Ukraine's strong pushback, so it is a puzzle why the skies seem mostly empty of Russian jets.

[underpants]

35. I've thought it was a major break that they haven't used artillery

Russians LOVE their artillery too. It works regardless of the weather like long cold Russian winters.

When I was in the Cav we were trained that they’d lead with “rolling thunder” basically wipe out the area the main body would pass through. We’d have almost certainly been toast.

[Irish_Dem]

19. Right, the situation on the ground did not support that plan.

So why didn't he adapt and go to Plan B??

[underpants]

34. Who knows? Maybe he didn't want to admit he'd been wrong

As the piece mentioned, they don’t want to risk losing planes (especially the brand new model) or fratricide in the air.

[Irish_Dem]

37. They are so afraid of losing equipment they won't use it in battle.

All very odd.

[underpants]

39. I'd guess they don't want anyone looking at their tech

in the plane. If one of those go down I’m sure us or our allies are going to get a good looksy.

[Irish_Dem]

42. That is always a concern. But there is much more to it now.

There must be other reasons why Russia is not using the military power they show on paper.

[uponit7771]

29. He did, RU prop vid showed Putler "victorious" after 2 days of fighting like in 2014. It aint workin

... out for them.

That convoy aint moving for a LONG LONG time

[underpants]

33. Short on food too from many reports

Beans and bullets or is it bread and bullets? Either way an Army travels on its stomach.

[gristy]

6. I've been wondering the same

[brewens]

7. I wonder if the Russians know we have some air countermeasures that can really mess them up.

Shit we don't know about. They might be afraid to launch an attack. I'm thinking electronic jamming or cyber attack.

[harumph]

13. Might be the correct answer.

Perhaps there are some surface to air capabilities that would be turned on
the very expensive Russian planes and show their weaknesses.

[Javaman]

8. Maybe the Air Force didn't want any part of this bullshit nt

[Mr.Bill]

9. There's more to an air force than just having the planes.

Maybe they lack fuel, or even pilots. It's also likely they planned from the start to not do any more bombing than necessary. Like someone else said, maybe they are trying to take the place with as little damage as possible. if you plan on occupying some place, you're going to have to fix what you break.

[Irish_Dem]

20. Right, bombing causes a lot of damage to infrastructure.

And Putin didn't want to pay to re-build.

[RussBLib]

11. well-armed drones can be quite effective

just don't let them fall in the "wrong" hands

we can remotely control drones from thousands of miles away. Just don't use any identifiable hardware, if possible.

that convoy is just like shooting practice, or ought to be.

[uponit7771]

30. +1, small hex drones can carry 10lbs of C4 for miles and not be detected

[marked50]

12. Only my speculation, but airpower would be difficult to make an impact against small/singular people

targets- like those with Javelins, RPG's, Stingers, etc. Jets would not be able to target at their speeds, helicopters would be best but their hovering or slow speeds put them at risk. Asymmetrical warfare in this new technology age. Just a guess....

[lagomorph777]

40. Putin probably knows that missiles will be coming at them from all directions.

[hunter]

15. Russia may be in much worse shape than anyone suspected.

This was a Hail Mary pass.

All they have now is their nukes and even North Korea has that, albeit of the fizzling sort.

This makes Russia especially dangerous.

[Irish_Dem]

22. That is one shocking possibility for sure.

What we see on paper in terms of military power is not accurate. Equipment has not been repaired or replaced.
There are not enough trained pilots, etc.
Troops are not well trained.

No wonder Putin keeps threatening nukes.
Maybe that is all he has.

[Strelnikov_]

26. The most dangerous bear is a wounded bear.

We need to find a way to turn this off now.

Give Putin some sort of cover so he can claim they accomplished their goals.

Time will take care of Putin. We need to win the peace. The Russian people are not our enemy. The corrupt oligarchs running their country are. Keep up targeted sanctions against the oligarchs. Build criminal cases to seize their property (if our oligarchs allow it, that is).

No one ever started a war thinking they would lose.

[Buckeyeblue]

36. He had that opportunity last week

But then most of the world turned against him. If China still supports him, it's silently. My guess is that they can't believe how inept he and the Russian military is.

When Putin dug in and everyone else said enough, Putin's fate was written. I actually thought someone would have taken Putin out by now. I think it will happen eventually.

[Hassin Bin Sober]

44. Haven't we always assumed their tech is pieced together half plagiarized garbage?

I think this is the answer.

Russia has just over half the gdp of California.

Russia is a corrupt kleptocracy. Is it any wonder their armed forces would be a paper tiger? Especially when it comes to higher end tech like fighter and attack aircraft.

Their nukes are probably garbage too but that’s something you don’t want to find out by trial and error.

And I agree about Putin being backed into a corner being dangerous.

[spanone]

18. Maintenance is expensive

[albacore]

21. I remember reading in the 1980's - from military experts - ...

...that the Russian military was a hollow giant.
Subs rusting at the bollards.... planes with no spares... poorly trained and abused troops...

My guess is that they haven't come far from that.

The fuckers still have nukes, tho....

[Irish_Dem]

23. Maybe that is all he has.

[albacore]

24. That's plenty as far as I am concerned. I live 20 miles from a nuke sub base. nt

[Irish_Dem]

25. I hear you.

I live close to a huge military installation, a big command center among other things. We know the whole area is high on the nuke list.

[Azathoth]

27. Drones are a game-changer

I predict the biggest takeaway from this war for military analysts will be that drones have finally made 20th century warfare obsolete.

The Ukranians can fly drones regardless of whether Russia has air superiority. The drones are faster, more maneuverable, more stealthy, can be launched from shorter runways, and can be run on much higher risk missions. They're also cheaper than fighters. It would take an overwhelming amount of manned aircraft on continuous patrol to really deny drones the opportunity to dart through the airspace.

And once the next generation of air-to-air combat drones emerge, the days of pilots flying combat missions will be over.

[Irish_Dem]

28. Wow, amazing. Flying combat will be gone forever.

Replaced by drones.

I think this war is full of surprises that analysts will be studying for quite some time.

[uponit7771]

31. +1, and that's all fixed winged drones and not multi rotor. Multi rotor can drop munitions and no

... one would know where they're coming from.

I think the days of subjugating united democratic populations is over.

The Ukrainians put all this together literally at the last minute

[Strelnikov_]

38. The relatively inexpensive solid fueled 'smart' missle

Delivered by drones, crew served (javelin etc.) or submarine/small boat has turned ships and tanks into death traps.

In the 2006 Israeli incursion into Lebanon, Hezbollah inflicted much damage with a obsolete (by modern standards) Iranian knock-off of a Chinese crew served anti-tank missile.

I think we are seeing why the US has been mothballing the tanks.

[Tommymac]

41. Modern NATO SAMS (Anti-Air Missiles) are Gonzo against poorly maintained close support aircraft

If Ukraine has even a modest amount of up to date missiles and radar controlled munitions (guns), then Russian close support (ground attack) planes that are not properly maintained are fucked in a 21st Century environment.

Plus Russia needs to keep a large percentage of their Air Force in the China Theatre, and defending against potential Shock & Awe tactical strikes by NATO against their Strategic C&C (Command & Control) and Nuclear Assets.

Russia may have nuclear weapons, but they are a second rate power conventionally, make no mistake.

Our older F-15's would make mincemeat of their Airforce.

[Irish_Dem]

43. Russia is not using the military force they show on paper.

I wonder why.