General Discussion

Chichiri

(4,667 posts) Fri Oct 26, 2012, 10:43 PM Oct 2012

Princeton Election: Obama re-election probability is 89-97%

Random drift: 89%
Predictive model: 97%

Before you ask, I don't know the technical meaning of random drift in this context. Can someone else find the details? But he just started posting these numbers tonight with his 8pm update (O 297 EVs, Meta-margin O+1.96%.)

http://election.princeton.edu/

7 replies

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Highlight:

Princeton Election: Obama re-election probability is 89-97% (Original Post) Chichiri Oct 2012 OP

Awesome lovuian Oct 2012 #1

a very interesting site defacto7 Oct 2012 #2

He came within 1 EV in 2008. Chichiri Oct 2012 #4

he missed Omaha central scrutinizer Oct 2012 #5

I just love checking in DU, awesome news sasha031 Oct 2012 #3

Simply OHYEAH! n/t OhZone Oct 2012 #6

No... ohheckyeah Oct 2012 #7

lovuian

(19,362 posts)

1. Awesome

Reply to Chichiri (Original post)

Fri Oct 26, 2012, 10:53 PM

Oct 2012

defacto7

(13,485 posts)

2. a very interesting site

Reply to Chichiri (Original post)

Fri Oct 26, 2012, 10:55 PM

Oct 2012

I'm going to keep my eye on it.

Chichiri

(4,667 posts)

4. He came within 1 EV in 2008.

Reply to defacto7 (Reply #2)

Fri Oct 26, 2012, 10:56 PM

Oct 2012

I think he only missed Nebraska.

central scrutinizer

(11,661 posts)

5. he missed Omaha

Reply to Chichiri (Reply #4)

Fri Oct 26, 2012, 11:05 PM

Oct 2012

Nebraska and Maine award electoral votes by Congressional district. Silver missed that one, too. Silver and Wang tied for most accurate prediction in 2008. I think one of them missed Indiana and the other one missed Missouri so it was a wash.