All bets are off if Putin slashes the West's oil supplies

[IronLionZion]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/01/business/oil-ukraine-russia-putin/index.html

New York (CNN Business)Russia faces the specter of a full-blown financial meltdown. Punishing sanctions leveled by the West have sent the ruble crashing to record lows, shuttered Moscow's stock market and made Russian assets toxic on the world stage.

The White House has even taken aim at Vladimir Putin's financial fortress, removing access to at least a chunk of Russia's $630 billion rainy-day fund that was designed to cushion the economic blow of this very crisis.
Now comes the big question: How will Putin — who is also facing sanctions on his personal wealth from the West — fire back in what is rapidly morphing into economic warfare?

There is growing concern that Putin could retaliate by using not just natural gas but also crude oil as a weapon against the West.
"Russia's energy supplies are very much at risk, either due to being withheld by Russia as a weapon or swiped off the market due to sanctions," Louise Dickson, senior oil market analyst at Rystad Energy, wrote in a report Monday.

The worldwide supply of oil was already failing to keep up with demand. If Russia, the world's No. 2 oil producer, intentionally held back supply, it would likely send oil prices skyrocketing, dealing a painful blow to consumers around the world.

There are graphs at the link. Basically if Putin does it, he will be screwing himself a lot to screw the west. Russia will feel the pain more, and Putin seems to not mind pain.

And of course all this is happening as demand for oil is increasing as post-pandemic shipping, travel, and commuting increases.

[58Sunliner]

1. I'd pay the price if it meant that sick sob fails.

[IronLionZion]

3. If Russia's economy suffers enough

Last edited Wed Mar 2, 2022, 01:03 AM - Edit history (1)

they are likely to experience political instability. I just saw a tiktok video on how to start and operate Russian tanks and armored personnel carriers if you find an abandoned one. It was made by a Russian mechanic, not Ukrainian. hmm... the protests also show the war to be pretty unpopular in Russia. It might be the end of that sick SOB

[OAITW r.2.0]

6. I think you mean instability?

Because, the momentum on economic sanctions is hitting Russia like a tsunami. They are getting overwhelm while their military invasion is falling apart. Trump's Genius is not looking too geniusly.

[IronLionZion]

12. yes, that was a bad typo

[OAITW r.2.0]

13. I knew that....and I still got your point.

[IronLionZion]

2. Here's how sanctions on Russia will actually cost you more

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/01/economy/russia-sanctions-inflation/index.html

related article on commodities, trucking, and Fed actions.

[OAITW r.2.0]

4. Another good reason to make the transition to EV.

We need oil for industrial processes, not to burn it for heat.

[orwell]

5. Traders are already refusing to buy Russian oil...

...tankers full of it are sitting on the water right now.

[BigmanPigman]

8. Oh, that's great news!

[viva la]

7. The US and Europe survived the OPEC oil embargo

In 1973, when we were All far more dependent on foreign oil.

If this helps defeat Putin, it will be worth it. He can't hang on very long without western cash.

[roamer65]

9. No pain, no gain.

I’d pay $5 a gallon for a long while if he gets a bullet in the back of the head.

[DemocraticPatriot]

10. If Putin "sanctions himself" by cutting off energy shipments to western Europe...

it would be a "win"-- without the west having to do it to themselves..



Otherwise I think we should do it, and bear the cost. no matter how painful.

[AlexSFCA]

11. he could abruptly stop all oil and gas supply to EU.

While it may seem counterproductive, he may think that the crisis will force Germans and others to either stop supplying weapons to Ukraine or ease sanctions on central bank, etc. It’s a gamble. How much would the oil and gas increase in price to German consumers who I believe will be most affected by this? Will it double in price? If it does, I can see how it can trigger some serious recession in Germany. What we EU and Germany decide to stop buying all gas and oil from Russia? Any alternative in short term?
I am thinking that only sanctioning the energy sector may stop the war - meaning embargo on Russian energy products too all Western countries. We will have to survive much higher prices and global recession as a result. But we may see the reward too - taking down the evil. We will all benefit from it long term.

[gratuitous]

14. The last report I saw

The U.S. imports about 3% of its crude oil from Russia. Refiners probably spill that much every week.

[GregariousGroundhog]

15. Oil probably isn't that big a deal, it's natural gas that would be the problem

Russia exports about five to six million barrels of oil a day; there are probably a number of OPEC countries that would love to take some of that market share at $100+ a barrel.

Natural gas would be a different animal. I doubt there is enough liquid and/or compressed natural gas infrastructure to replace what Russia sends to Europe via pipeline.

[Spider Jerusalem]

16. Short-term pain may be worth it if it spurs a longer-term shift to alternative energy sources

which includes getting the wind + solar + nuclear infrastructure in place to support a full-scale shift to EVs instead of internal combustion engines.

[IronLionZion]

17. Putin would love to see Dems lose the election this year, and for Biden to lose reelection

GOP will definitely blame us for any increase in oil or gas prices