General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsWhat will we do when there is a confrontation between
Russia and NATO and it will happen? Do we roll the dice and take a chance on a nuclear war? This by far the biggest crises we have ever faced. Back in the Cuban
missile crises Kruschov was not nuts, Putin is nuts. All we can hope is someone refuses his orders.
Response to doc03 (Original post)
Mary in S. Carolina This message was self-deleted by its author.
doc03
(35,389 posts)The line has been drawn, it's back away or suicide.
Response to doc03 (Reply #2)
Mary in S. Carolina This message was self-deleted by its author.
Ligyron
(7,639 posts)They know what is at stake as well as we.
hamsterjill
(15,224 posts)But I have no confidence that Russians will handle the Putin problem.
11 Bravo
(23,928 posts)mahatmakanejeeves
(57,664 posts)Василий Александрович Архипов
Born: 30 January 1926; Zvorkovo, Moscow Oblast, Russian SFSR, Soviet Union
Died: 19 August 1998 (aged 72); Zheleznodorozhny, Moscow Oblast, Russia
Vasili Aleksandrovich Arkhipov (Russian: Василий Александрович Архипов, IPA: [vɐˈsʲilʲɪj ɐlʲɪkˈsandrəvʲɪtɕ arˈxʲipəf], 30 January 1926 19 August 1998) was a Soviet Navy officer credited with preventing a Soviet nuclear strike (and, potentially, all-out nuclear war) during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Such an attack likely would have caused a major global thermonuclear response.
As flotilla chief of staff and second-in-command of the diesel powered submarine B-59, Arkhipov refused to authorize the captain's use of nuclear torpedoes against the United States Navy, a decision requiring the agreement of all three senior officers aboard.
In 2002, Thomas Blanton, who was then director of the U.S. National Security Archive, said that Arkhipov "saved the world".
{snip}
Petrov at his house in 2016
Born: Stanislav Yevgrafovich Petrov; 7 September 1939
Vladivostok, Russian SFSR, Soviet Union; Died: 19 May 2017 (aged 77); Fryazino, Russia
Stanislav Yevgrafovich Petrov (Russian: Станисла́в Евгра́фович Петро́в; 7 September 1939 19 May 2017) was a lieutenant colonel of the Soviet Air Defence Forces who played a key role in the 1983 Soviet nuclear false alarm incident. On 26 September 1983, three weeks after the Soviet military had shot down Korean Air Lines Flight 007, Petrov was the duty officer at the command center for the Oko nuclear early-warning system when the system reported that a missile had been launched from the United States, followed by up to five more. Petrov judged the reports to be a false alarm, and his decision to disobey orders, against Soviet military protocol, is credited with having prevented an erroneous retaliatory nuclear attack on the United States and its NATO allies that could have resulted in a large-scale nuclear war which could have wiped out half of the population of the countries involved. An investigation later confirmed that the Soviet satellite warning system had indeed malfunctioned. Because of his decision not to launch a retaliatory nuclear strike amid this incident, Petrov is often credited as having "saved the world".
{snip}
HariSeldon
(457 posts)* Any general who gives the order to deploy nuclear weapons signs his own death warrant via NATO retaliation -- or at least that of the majority of his country.
* On the other hand, if Putin gives the order and the general shoots or otherwise kills (hand-to-hand) Putin, he will be regarded by the world as a hero for preventing nuclear war.
* Even if the attempt to kill Putin fails, the personal consequences are no worse than acceeding to the order.
I suppose Putin might have developed leverage over the people reporting to him, but we are looking at him madly jumping on one end of a see-saw with nearly the entire world population on the other side...there isn't enough leverage in the world.
Happy Hoosier
(7,424 posts)then get used to a world dominated by Putin and his toadies.
I don't savor a direct confrontation with Putin, but at some point he and his generals have to know that they risk as much as we do. Right now, he's kinda winning that game. We are more afraid of him, than he is of us, apparently.
FakeNoose
(32,823 posts)Insane despots cannot be allowed to put their hands on nuclear missiles.
Hav
(5,969 posts)want to appease Putin want to cause WW3. That's nonsense and an attempt to downplay Russia's aggression. Putin has to know that Nato takes attacks against its members seriously. Otherwise he'll just go on.
Putin is the one who can stop this at any time. He's the only aggressor here, Nato only reacts to what he does.
Calista241
(5,586 posts)This spring (really any day in the next 1-3 months), Russia is going to accuse the West (including the US) of waging an economic war against his country. He's also going to say that Russia is going to fight back with the only weapons they have against such an attack. His people will be starving, and the only media they'll be able to consume will be Russian state media.
Shortly afterwards, the sanctions will collapse. He'll directly threaten to attack everyone, which he's more than capable of doing. None of this 'putting strategic rocket forces on alert' stuff. He'll actually distribute and deploy missiles, and give us a timeline for his demands. He may even identify cities or countries, like Naples, Krakow, Lisbon or Nice. Not a capital city, but a major city in countries that have imposed sanctions. I'd guess he's unlikely to directly threaten the US. One of those countries is going to say 'fuck this, i'm out' and remove sanctions, and that'll be the first domino until all the sanctions are removed.
Then the Cold War 2.0 will be on and in full swing.
Happy Hoosier
(7,424 posts)And it's why I don't think we can afford to let this transition to the "Fait Accompli" phase where people are just resigned to the loss. Aftr all it's not THAT bad right?
If we allow this domino to fall it will be remembered as a generational mistake. Neville Chamberlain in 2022. So long as we are more afraid of confrontation that he is, he will win. Unless by some miracle he is deposed. I'm not holding my breath for that.
Calista241
(5,586 posts)His people will be starving. By next month, there is going to be widespread hunger in Russia. They will have no money, no communications, and no hope. Putin and his cronies will be eating just fine. His strategic rocket forces and their families will also be eating just fine.
Biden has to give Putin an off ramp. Putin's gamble is that he'll be in control on Ukraine, with a government established before he has to have this discussion with NATO and the US. The fake puppet Ukraine government will be all like "things are great, and we're happy to be a part of the new Soviet Union."
Putin's position will be:
1. everyone in Ukraine is happy blissful Russian citizens.
2. you're waging an economic war against us
3. you've stolen a bunch of our cash from our international bank accounts.
4. remove the sanctions and give us our stuff back
or we'll start a war everyone will regret for all time. We'll have to decide if this is the hill we're willing to risk extinction for.
Happy Hoosier
(7,424 posts)The leaked Russian "victory dance" news story shows us where this heading: A new Cold War. If we allow that to happen not only will Joe Biden (or ANY Democrat) be toast for the next cycle or two (with the disaster that entails), but we'll be facing a massive in global power and influence and decades of MORE Cold War expenditures... provided a Trumpite President doesn't just decide to join the axis of evil.
Make no mistake, WAY more than Ukraine is at stake here. WAY more.
doc03
(35,389 posts)then backed down.
Happy Hoosier
(7,424 posts)Obama is my fav President. But that was a mistake.
Elessar Zappa
(14,087 posts)all bets are off and Putin as well as Russia would be destroyed.