As an aside - I cannot see this as anything less than what it has become since the invasion and threats of using nukes by Russians. This is no longer just a territorial issue - it is an existential threat to humanity.
Geopolitically, Putin is consistent with his stated goals - re-establishing the greater Soviet Empire under the guise of "protecting historically Russian peoples". He has a water issue in Crimea, a natural gas and oil income issue - especially if Ukraine resources on land and in the Black Sea are developed, a crumbling economy (before sanctions, which is now becoming a crater where a 21st century economy once stood), a cadre of sycophants and oligarchs instead of real advisors, a legacy issue in his own mind and a isolation problem that has left him arguing in his own head without much external world contacts or inputs for nearly 2 years.
All in all, the real question is: would he order a nuclear strike on a NATO ally or just launch a premptive first strike against the USA? The answer to that is the same as the answer to the question is he totally insane or just pathetic and dying?
If he is truly insane, then all bets are off and assassination plots MUST be underway, and subversion of the Russian military command as well. Yes - I KNOW that sounds crazy and insane itself - advocating for assassination - but the alternatives are simply untennable. If Putin IS crazy, he has access to too much destructive capability to allow him the option of deciding on his own - he forfeit that right when he invaded Ukraine. He either disavows nuclear strikes and fully exits Ukraine before talks can begin on reparations and consequences, or he must die and soon.
If he is just already dying of some other malady that is not yet public, and wanting to make his bucket list of territorial conquests a reality - however brief and at whatever costs before he kicks off - then a lot of people will die, but civilization won't be destroyed. Putin still loses in that equation too. He is already a war criminal for actions in Georgia, Chechnya, Syria and Ukraine. Pre-emptive execution for crimes against humanity to prevent THE BIGGEST ever crime against humanity (nuclear war) must be considered and understood, not just taken off the table or never considered.
In my mind, he is too great a risk to allow to live and find out what his intentions may or may not be...elimination of Vladimir Putin as an upright, beathing human being should be a priority for the entire world right now. No one else since Nikita Khrushchev banging his shoe has been as bellicose and threatening to world peace while threatening use of nukes, even tangentially.
"Fuck around and find out, Vlad" time has passed and with his decision to invade and subjugate Ukraine, he has made his final decision...but don't let him get to the point of desperation to actually launch. One life or billions? There's simply no calculus there where the answer is "just let Putin be Putin". End him. End this crisis.
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