Ukrainian AF is taking out the convoy north of Kiev

[jmbar2]

Link to tweet

[lagomorph777]

1. I needed some good news this morning.

[L. Coyote]

62. This is not reliable news, the convoy moved from Ivankiv to Abramov airport with no real resistance.

That photo shows a house burning, not the military convoy. The Russians did destroy several houses along the way east of Ivankiv, perhaps because people were shooting at them.

Apparently, the convoy is there to hold the airport, that is why they paused, because they arrived where they were going!

Russian military convoy stretches over 17 miles north of Kiev.

Link to tweet

[MarineCombatEngineer]

2. Excellent job UAF,

now get those Javelins, NLAW's and MPADS up there and wreak more havoc.

[speak easy]

3. This is what has stunned military observers.

Ever since the Battle of Britain, 1940, warfare 101 says first establish arial supremacy. And the Russians have not done that. The opening of a modern war should look like Baghdad in 1991, not Barbarossa in 1941.

[Pachamama]

15. The movie Top Gun helped portray a false image that the Russian Air Force is big and strong

It ultimately showed the failing

But it does make one wonder about the Russian Air Force and what are they really capable of

[dawg]

32. To be fair, it probably was more formidable ...

when that movie first came out.

[Pachamama]

35. Yes - True

Pre-Putin

[ShazzieB]

58. Not just pre-Putin.

Top Gun came out in 1986. That was before the fall of the USSR, so what the movie depicted was the Soviet Military, not the post-Sovet Russian military. BIG difference.

[IronLionZion]

21. Russia could easily use heavy bombers with jets to protect them

but it baffles everyone. it's like they're afraid of surface to air missiles or something like that. I doubt they're concerned about civilian casualties since they have launched plenty of missile strikes on urban residential areas with no strategic or military value.

The Russian air force played a major role in Syria but not so much in Ukraine.

[Boomerproud]

4. Is this confirmed?

nt

[speak easy]

5. The Military Times is a credible source.

https://www.militarytimes.com/flashpoints/ukraine/2022/03/02/ukraine-jets-hit-russian-column-russia-has-used-thermobarics-ukraine-military-says/

[obamanut2012]

22. It's the MT, so yes

[SergeStorms]

31. That satellite photo doesn't show much.

I see little of the convoy, destroyed or operative, on the highway, and a few smoldering homes.

I hope this isn't their "proof" of UAF inflicting damage on the convoy. It makes me wonder why they'd even release this picture?

[JohnSJ]

42. What it shows is a house destroyed as far as I can see

[L. Coyote]

65. We knew this was false days ago, the convoy was in Ivankiv on Feb. 28. Now in Kyiv.

Here they are, relaxing beside the highway, taking a break, resting, etc. I posted this on Feb. 28.

[bluewater]

70. People seem intent on high-fiving over disproven reports

While ignoring the reality of Russian gains along Ukraine's vital Black Sea coast.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100216433625

Optimism based on false reports is fine to a point for moral, but ignoring the reality on the ground is self-defeating.

[JohnSJ]

6. I hope this is an accurate report, because so far the MSM isn't reporting this

I thought the Ukrainian Air Force was destroyed?

[Nevilledog]

27. I haven't seen anything like this. Where'd you hear that?

[JohnSJ]

41. Same here. I would think the MSM would be right on top of this, but I haven't seen anything

[Nevilledog]

46. You said: I thought the Ukrainian Air Force was destroyed?

Where you get that?

[JohnSJ]

47. I thought I heard that on CNN when the invasion started that the Russian's took out the airfields at

the beginning

[Nevilledog]

48. Gotcha.

Don't believe that's accurate.

[JohnSJ]

49. Thanks, I hope they have some fighter jets and the OP is accurate

[SheltieLover]

7. Yaaaaaay!

[JasonMain]

8. Let's go!

[dalton99a]

9. What happened to the super fantastic S-400 missile systems that can shoot down a bird 400 mi away?

[speak easy]

11. Yes. What is happening here?

(as I replied above) Ever since the Battle of Britain, 1940, warfare 101 says first establish arial supremacy. And the Russians have not done that. The opening of a modern war should look like Baghdad in 1991, not Barbarossa in 1941.

The Ukrainian AF is tiny, but it's still operating?

[forgotmylogin]

24. Risk vs reward?

I read an article that Putin probably doesn't want planes in the air because it's a gamble to risk a million dollar aircraft when one person on the ground might take it down with a $100k Stinger missile.

The minute Ukraine shoots down one Russian plane, they get a huge morale boost and Russia's air force suffers negative optics worldwide.

[Nevilledog]

28. They've already shot down Russian planes, and helicopters.

[honest.abe]

12. I would love to believe this but those look like houses on fire in the photo.

Zoom in to see it better. Perhaps the tanks or trucks veered off the road after being hit. Not sure. Are there better photos on Twitter? I don’t have access.

[BumRushDaShow]

25. The caption for the pic at the militarytimes article says that

Overview shows portion of a Russian military convoy and burning homes northwest of Ivankiv, Ukraine, Feb. 28, 2022. (Satellite image ©2022 Maxar Technologies)

https://www.militarytimes.com/flashpoints/ukraine/2022/03/02/ukraine-jets-hit-russian-column-russia-has-used-thermobarics-ukraine-military-says/

Apparently that image was being shown in reports from around Feb. 28 or so.

[honest.abe]

29. Ok so the photo isn't completely relevant to the story.

Thanks for the clarification!

[BumRushDaShow]

37. The author of the tweet has this pinned on his twitter webpage

Neil Hauer
@NeilPHauer
·
Feb 24
FYI - I'm an independent journalist covering the Russian invasion of Ukraine from the ground. If you find my work valuable and would like to support me, I've got a Patreon you can subscribe to, with a newsletter as well as other tiered perks.

So apparently an indie journalist on the ground there. Am not sure how "up to date" his info is from wherever he is reporting from (that's a huge country) but I suppose he grabbed one of the sat images that are all over the internet, to show the line of the tanks.

[KS Toronado]

33. Caption under the photo states..........

" Russian military convoy and burning homes northwest of Ivankiv, Ukraine, Feb. 28, 2022."

So a 5 day old photo of a different city, unrelated to Kyiv. Current photos must be hard to come by,
that or the Ukrainians don't want to publish current ones if it might give the Russians some intel.

[honest.abe]

36. Got it. Thanks.

[KS Toronado]

38. I came in 2nd

BumRushDaShow got there first with a larger photo, hat tip to him/her

[JohnSJ]

45. That is exactly what it is Abe. The picture is no evidence of anything

[MarineCombatEngineer]

30. In the 90's, I worked with the Russian military, specifically their

equivalent to our combat engineers, and I found that the Russian soldiers were lazy drunkards who were undisciplined and would sell their equipment for drinking money, their NCO's were brutal towards the conscripts and their officers didn't really care what was going on as long as it didn't cause trouble for them.

[Happy Hoosier]

14. So.... interesting tidbit.

I think I've mentioned before that I work in tactical aviation R&D and have for about 35 years.

Over the last 10 years, I've become very involved with advanced adversary training... that is, in ways we can train friendly forces to face the threat. As you can imagine, that means becoming familiar with what the "threat" is actually capable of.

Now, I cannot and will not reveal and sensitive (much less classified!) information but a basic summary is that the baseline capabilities of Russian aviation and air defense systems are very good. As good, or better, on a unit by unit comparison to their western counterparts. ON PAPER. However, there a number of factors that severely limit their actual capability:

1) Exaggeration. The Russians quite commonly exaggerate the technical specs of their equipment. While it is often very good, they frequently inflate the technical specifications.

2) Claim prototypes as capability. The "hypersonic missile" and the Su-35 are two prime examples here. Although the Russians claim their hypersonic missile is "operational," there is no evidence AT ALL of any of them being deployed to operational units except for "show" and no evidence AT ALL that they actually have an operational capability and are unlikely to for some time. The same for the Su-35. It's developmental history is even more troubled than the F-35, and the Russians have had a very hard time getting them in service. They claim them as "in service" now, and there are some in operational units, but not many and their "up" time is very poor indeed

3) Maintenance. The Russians have always preferred "head" to "tail" in their units and that extends to basic upkeep as well. Russia has an economy smaller than Italy, so maintaining a massive military take a huge chunk out of their budget. Ya know what what costs a ton (and any homeowner or car owner knows this)? Keeping their gear is actual good working order. Remember that thread on tire rot on Russian military vehicles? Yeah, will if they can't bother with something THAT basic, imagine trying to maintain a very sophisticated air defense radar.

Which is where this thread comes in. Many had said that the Ukrainians could not attack the column from the air due to Russia having very sophisticated air defenses. But here's the odd thing. They don't seem to have actually deployed that many of them. Most of them are "buttoned up" as part of the convoys, on the roads. NOT deployed to actually provide an air defense network. Why!!?? Three possibilities:

1) They don't think they need them. The Ukrainian air force is degraded, so perhaps they think friendly CAP is sufficient. We wouldn;t do that, but it might be because of fear of....

2) Equipment failure. As discussed above... Russians don't maintain their equipment very well. And the MTBF (mean time between failures) of their equipment tends to be lower than their Western counterparts. In short, the systems may not work. Or they are afraid of turning them on because of anticipated failures after a relatively short operating time. They probably think that having the systems present still helps since it means planners still have to account for them, even if they are not deployed.

3) Poor training. The Russian crews of these systems often have the bare minimum of training. They probably know how to operate the system in its most basic modes, but to be truly effective, air defense systems need to be networked and coordinated. Also, your maintenance crews need to actually have training and experience to fix stuff that breaks in the field..... including spare parts. For an army that can't get enough fuel and food to the front, how do they think they are doing with expensive and fragile parts for a sophisticated radar?

Anyway... a little food for thought on why Ukrainians might be able to launch successful strikes using old-ass Su-24's and 25's.

[MarineCombatEngineer]

17. Great post

and very informative.

Thanks.

[niyad]

19. Thank you for this most informatuve post.

[obamanut2012]

23. thanks for posting

[IronLionZion]

26. Russian incompetence will be their undoing

with most of the world rooting for the underdog Ukraine.

[democratsruletheday]

55. Thanks for the education HH....

it's kind of unreal to me but sure hope the Russian incompetence continues

[msfiddlestix]

59. Well, that's more than just a few interesting, very informative tidbits

at least from my personal lay person's perspective.

Thank you for that, and it offers a strong measure of optimism for me. I've been experiencing a deep and alarming level of anxiety over Russia's invasion. And I don't have any familial ties, friends or acquaintances. None the less I feel enormous concern and even pride for the leadership and the people of Ukraine fighting courageously against this most outrageous and sinister bastard's unprovoked attack on that country.

thank you for your contribution here, it helps a lot.

[Happy Hoosier]

60. I think there is a reason for some optimism, but...

make no mistake. Russia still has a huge amount of force in the area and they might very well achieve a "military" victory despite horrific losses and incredible military failures. At this point, Putin's credibility is on the line and he'll spare almost no effort to achieve his objectives.

So, I am hopeful. But I am also realistic. The Ukrainians are still very much the underdog in this phase. But as long as we keep them supplied, the Ukrainians are likely going to be able to keep control of some parts of the country and maintain an effective insurgency, even if they lose all the cities.

At least, based on my semi-educated opinion.

[msfiddlestix]

64. If Ukrainians Lose all of their cities, that would be catastrophic it seems to me.

how could they regain control of their own governance and governing infrastructure?

For the very first time in my life I find that I am in total support of sending our forces in service of defending a sovereign country from an invading aggressor. I feel this is actually in reality, an existential threat to our own sovereignty.

[Happy Hoosier]

66. That is well out of my wheelhouse.... but...

it seems obvious to me that it will be hard for a Russian puppet state to truly survive.

Russia will have to maintain an occupation force, and frankly, I think they'll be heavily bottled up on their operating bases. I don't know what the future will bring, but I think Putin's hope of rapid normalization based of a fait accompli are utterly destroyed.

[msfiddlestix]

69. I just now read the bombardment of a city..

The fact that Russian's membership on UN Security Council can't be expelled, that at the very least NATO accepts Ukraine as a member, and thus proceed to defend NOW is to me outrageous. It's a pathetic example of why the reputations of both NATO and the UN gets tarnished to the extent that it does. Sickens me.

[reACTIONary]

67. "Russia has an economy smaller than Italy"....

... and getting smaller by the hour.

[Happy Hoosier]

68. Yup. MASSIVE miscalculation. NT

[greenjar_01]

16. The way folks have cathected on this convoy is really fascinating

That and the yacht seizure.

Give 'em something to wrap their heads and feels around.

[MarineCombatEngineer]

18. Yachts, plural.

French authorities seized another Oligarch's yacht this morning.

[SergeStorms]

20. Wonderful news.

When is Putin going to realize that his army is not up to the task? Their supply chain can't keep their forward units stocked with the basic necessities to keep moving. The Russian forces obviously don't believe in the objective, some to the point of sabotaging their own equipment.

This invasion of Ukraine was a horrible idea. The only person who doesn't realize that fact is the one man who has the power to stop it: Vladimir Putin.

[lastlib]

34. I wish we could ship about a dozen A-10s to Unkraine....

...let 'em have a field day with that convoy....fish in a barrel?

[sl8]

63. I read that Bulgaria was transferring 14 SU-25 Frogfoots to Ukraine.

That's the former Soviet block counterpart to the A-10.

On edit:

https://www.airforcetimes.com/news/your-air-force/2022/03/01/no-eu-countries-arent-sending-fighter-jets-to-ukraine/
No, EU countries aren’t sending fighter jets to Ukraine

[mackdaddy]

39. I kept thinking of the "Highway of Death" during the 1991 Kuwait-Iraq War.

Aircraft just decimated the miles long columns of Iraqi vehicles.
https://www.dangerousroads.org/asia/iraq/10139-highway-of-death.html

By the way a single A-10 could probably take out most of a backed up column like that.

It is basically a flying gatling gun firing depleted uranium rounds.

Back in the late 70s I worked for a scale company that created some machines to automatically fill the shells with powder. If you have a jet that can fire hundreds of rounds per minute, somewhere they have to make all those rounds.

When they were first testing the A-10 jet they fired at some captured Russian tanks from the Egypt-Israel war.The goal was to disable the tank from operation. On the first pass, the entire turret was blown off, so it was successful.

[Shrek]

40. We should send some AC-130s to Poland for "training exercises"

And have them experience an unfortunate navigation failure while in transit.

[MarcA]

43. Putin probably isn't trying to conquer all of Ukraine.

Last edited Thu Mar 3, 2022, 10:25 PM - Edit history (1)

Trying to set up enough chaos and turmoil so that his Separatist
supporters in Ukraine can set up enclaves of control. Then putin
seeks "peace" talks to create a partitioned Ukrainian buffer zone.

[onetexan]

51. yep, that's a plausible scenario. I have a suggestion for the Ukrainian & pro Ukrainian forces

to kick them out of Crimea too. That's another plausible scenario i'm hoping once Ukrainians have the upper hand president Zelenskyy will entertain.

[lagomorph777]

54. He's trying to conquer all of Europe.

For starters.

[MarcA]

61. I was speaking in terms of Ukrainian geopolitics.

Putin certainly is an agent of those Oligarchs who wish to conquer
all democracies.

[Hav]

71. According to this thread,

Putin does indeed plan to take over all of Ukraine.
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100216433623

[AngryOldDem]

44. YESSSS!

[lagomorph777]

50. I am Ukrainian AF today.

[DallasNE]

52. That Is Certainly Welcome News

Now there needs to be a focus on the artillery that is indiscriminately shelling the cities.

[bdamomma]

53. Good News for Ukraine

but the thermobarics Russia is using is illegal according to Geneva Convention.

[democratsruletheday]

56. I hear you bda...

but this is a SOB in Putin that has NO morals, scruples or decency whatsoever. He's never met a 'rule' he didn't break. A much smarter, conniving, ruthless and barbaric version of TFG. So using banned weaponry is nothing to him. He's pure evil IMO.

[bdamomma]

57. He's a

Evil POS, hopefully the ICC will get things moving. Putin is not well mentally and someone on his side has to "off" him.