So . . . . play this one out:

[Stinky The Clown]

A NATO member gets directly involved (air and maybe even boots on the ground) in Ukraine.

Russia slaps back on said NATO member's soil.


Then what? Does Article Five remain extant if the NATO member was the "aggressor"?


Edit to clarify intent: The NATO member would enter UKR by choice and would attack Russian interests without Russian provocation.

[Ohio Joe]

1. Interesting question...

From what I understand, the hypothetical country would have to invoke article 5 and then it has to be confirmed by NATO to take effect... I have no idea on how such a situation would end up.

[Stinky The Clown]

2. My question may not have been clearly written. Said NATO member would be entering UKR by choice

Basically, attacking Russian interests without direct Russian provocation.

[Miguelito Loveless]

4. Unless Russia starts obvious

genocidal moves, I don't see a NATO country attacking first.

[Stinky The Clown]

5. That wasn't the question (although I agree it is unlikely a NATO country would do this)

The question what if they did.

[Miguelito Loveless]

6. I guess NATO could "disown" a member

if it took aggressive action first, the question is "would they?" I would guess it would depend on which member did it.

Hard to see a NATO member unilaterally attacking.

Air incursions seem to me the likely flash point. All it takes is one wayward missile, intentional or not, to make the world radioactive. For historical precedent, see WWI. One guy shot another guy, and everybody's armies went off on automatic.

[Ohio Joe]

7. Assuming the country is acting alone...

I do not think NATO would approve invoking article 5... At least not at this point. Article 5 is not always 'automatic', I believe the approval by NATO is supposed to be if a country is attacked within their own borders but even then, a vote occurs. In your scenario, it gets dicey and as of this minute I think the vote would be to not invoke article 5. If Russia continues with some of the threats I've seen posted today, public executions and such, I think much less than what you describe could cause NATO to invoke article 5. I think we are much closer to a world war than I'm comfortable with and I hope the oligarchs take him out before long.

[Miguelito Loveless]

3. I see Russia shelling over the border

then claiming it a "mistake". How many "mistakes" will NATO tolerate before invoking Article 5? Direct NATO involvement will go nuclear quickly unless someone removes Putin from the equation. Will his tools be willing to launch on his order?

Best case scenario is Putin deposed out a window and his successor call for immediate cease fire and withdrawal from Ukraine. Worst case, perhaps the dolphins are more mature when it is their turn.

[sarisataka]

8. As a rule of thumb

If a member starts something the alliance will not directly join in. However proportionality could be a factor.

Example- Poland decides to send a brigade into Ukraine and provide air support. If Russia responds with an attack on the airfield the planes operate from and hit bridges that troops/ supplies use NATO would probably not act. If Russia instead drops a few dozen cruise missiles on Warsaw, Poznan and Wrocław NATO is more likely to invoke Article 5.