Do you think Putin will venture into a NATO country?

[Stinky The Clown]

If you think he will, do you think he will do so in the near future before he controls Ukraine or will he wait until Ukraine is under his control?

Ukraine gives Russia a massive western border with NATO.

[samnsara]

1. well that will end it quickly for sure

[2naSalit]

2. 50/50...

He's in that "buggy" stage and a bit unpredictable while he's trying to recover from the rude awakening he's having in the form of resistance.

[Sherman A1]

3. Possibly

But, it will not have a good result should he do so.

[Duncanpup]

4. Who knows stinky

Articles say he has Parkinson’s and he’s surrounded by yes men ass kissers. I’m 56 and I’m more afraid now than as kid growing up in the Cold War.

[left-of-center2012]

5. No

[Joinfortmill]

7. Only if he wants his ass kicked to hell and quickly.

[CrackityJones75]

13. We all get our asses kicked if that happens

If he crosses into nato and we go hell fury he will launch his nukes. I believe he is that crazy. He has already threatened it with his statements.

This is not a good situation and needs to be handled delicately

[atreides1]

8. If he does..

It'll likely be the Baltic states. This will provide Russia with open access to Kaliningrad...HQ of the Russian Baltic Fleet!

And if he does attack...Lithuania will be the initial target...it will also test the resolve of both NATO and the EU...

[MarineCombatEngineer]

12. 2 weeks ago, I would've bet NATO wouldn't respond to such a scenario,

but with the US, NATO, Europe and the EU so united against Putin, I've no doubt now that we would respond massively.

[Submariner]

9. If he does the U.S. can cut Russia off from the WWW

and we could shut down GPS satellites and cripple worldwide navigation, including some missile aiming systems, and then hope for the best until someone puts a slug in Putin’s temple.

In the run up to the Y2K panic, working offshore with GPS NAV crippled, resulted in total chaos for cable and pipe laying ships trying to use ROV’s. It could cripple Putin’s hypersonic missile dreams.

[LastDemocratInSC]

28. Russia has its own GPS system named GLOSSNASS.

It's possible that Western military agencies could screw it up if needed but there's no certainty about that.

[Submariner]

30. Drat!...Another one of my great ideas crushed by more updated technology

at least I didn't embarrass myself and suggest we cut off Russia's access to the Loran Alpha and Loran Charlie NAV equipment and signaling I'm more familiar with

[Shanti Shanti Shanti]

10. It may take many weeks, months to crush Ukraine till they get everything they want

Wait 6 months...then we see how far they will go.

[NoMoreRepugs]

11. It's a possibility, but I would think the Russian military understands

what a tragic mistake it would be to take on NATO.

[Bev54]

14. No, he wants Kyiv and Odessa which is historical for Russia and he thinks

he will go down in infamy if he secures them. He is fucking crazy.

[SoonerPride]

15. No

Next question.

[Hav]

16. No

I assume the Ukraine invasion was planned for years. What we got as a result is that the Russian army looks pitiful and has to engage in war crimes for any progress, their economy is effed and the West ramped up their awareness and (partially) defense spending. Much of Russia's equipment is stranded all over Ukraine.

Putin's dead before Russia seems to be ready for the next major war. On the other side, all bets are off if he's lost it. Obviously, in that case we cannot expect rational decision making.

[Happy Hoosier]

17. Maybe....

If Ukraine had gone well, hr may have attempted a fait accompli in the Baltic states. They are small and vulnerable. But that is less likely now with his military’s embarrassment in Ukraine.

[getagrip_already]

18. he doesn't have the troops....

They are apparently scraping bottom trying to get reinforcements to ukraine. They will need 500,000 to control that country. He doesn't have anywhere close to that now.

Russia isn't equipped to fight two wars at once. Let alone one with NATO. Sure, they go on a war footing and throw every warm body they can point a gun at into a uniform, but that isn't a fighting force on day 1.

But as others have pointed out, these are points of logic and reason. If putin has reached the stage of parkinsons where he is seeing people who aren't there, and hearing things that aren't being said, all bets are off.

The question is how far will the military follow.

[Deminpenn]

19. I think the generals would remove Putin

if he wanted a war with NATO. Right now a very large part of the Russian military is concentrated in a small area. It would be devasted by NATO airstrikes and missiles. You can bet Russian command and control would be an immediate target, too. There would be tactical electronic warfare aircraft jamming Russian communications as well.

[Happy Hoosier]

21. The Russians have toyed with a doctrine....

We in the west have dubbed in the "Fait Accompli." It is what he did in Crimea attempted in Ukraine. Simply put, it's a Blitzkreig style assault that achieves its military goals very quickly and then pretty much dares the west to do anything about it. It worked in Crimea. It is bogged down in Ukraine as a whole. BUT... it may yet succeed. The West is very risk averse and he is betting the west will eventually accept the seizure of Ukraine as a "fair accompli" and will normalize diplomatic and trade relations. So far, that's not happening, but it could.

There have apparently been thoughts in Russia that they could do the same in the Baltic states. That the Baltic states would fall rapidly and if the Russians rattle the nuclear sabre (sound familiar?) the West might be reluctant to risk nuclear confrontation over the tiny Baltic states.

IMHO, a LOT depends upon the West holding the line against Russia in Ukraine. I would prefer a more aggressive response, but if not, unity on the economic and diplomatic fronts are very, very important.

[radius777]

35. Russia is now a pariah state and no normalization

will occur as long as they illegally occupy Ukraine.

NATO will defend every inch of territory, including the eastern flank (Poland, the Baltics, etc) as Article 5 would be invoked. The NATO rapid response force was recently activated and deployed in the eastern flank.

Putin is well aware that we have many 'forward deployed' nukes aimed right at his head.

[Happy Hoosier]

36. Ya think? I'm not so sure.

A few years pass... and that Russian market and Russian oil and gas start to look pretty tempting. And a "he'll never give up Ukraine any, so why not?" type attitude could very well take hold. Maybe not, but that's what he is betting on.

[ratchiweenie]

20. Only if he and the Russian Military Commanders are suicidal.

[Act_of_Reparation]

22. Because his invasion of a non-NATO country is going so well?

[Nevilledog]

23. Yes. And sooner rather than later.

[Buckeyeblue]

24. I don't think he has the fire power

It's sad watching him decimate Ukraine though.

[lagomorph777]

25. If we don't attack him in Ukraine, yes he will.

[Shermann]

26. No, it is circular logic

Invade Ukraine to prevent highly protected NATO status there, just to later attack another highly protected NATO country?

[Calista241]

27. Given the performance of the Russian Army in Ukraine, I'd highly doubt he'd start

a conventional invasion of a NATO aligned country. His military is obviously ill trained, corrupt, incompetent and under equipped. Controlling Ukraine does dramatically shorten the length of border he has to defend, so it'll require fewer forces to cover his borders with non-aligned countries.

The US military, and the investment in training of our officers is a HUGE differentiator from the rest of the world. Nearly all of our military leaders have graduated with a bachelors degree from college or a military academy. Our military academies are highly respected institutions, both in the education industry and throughout our society. All flag officer have also graduated with at least one degree from War College, which is equivalent to a Masters Degree or Doctorate.

Our flag officers are all students of the art of waging war and the logistics involved in waging war. NATO countries and our allies make it a point to send their officers to our military academies and take advantage of US provided educational opportunities. This educational system is not really duplicated anywhere else in the world, and is a breathtakingly HUGE advantage for the US and aligned militaries.

Putin's first step will be to get Russia out from under the economic catastrophe that's about to envelope his country.

[Sunsky]

29. Possibly

Putin is unhinged and unpredictable. He displays grandiosity and I believe he's in a manic-like state and is not acting with good judgment. He will push the limit. Therefore, he may commit an act against a NATO country then deny that it was Russia and blame Ukraine or NATO itself.

[Corgigal]

31. Our intelligence thinks so,

he wants lines drawn back to the Warsaw pack. Like for Putin and the good ole days, when he was young and stationed in Germany behind the wall.

This is all about one man’s nostalgia. Add madness, isolation and maybe an illness.

[Demsrule86]

32. I believe Ukraine will be first...and then nearbye non-Nato countries...but ultimately, he

will take what he can and threaten those who oppose him with nuclear annihilation which he has hinted at already.

[cemaphonic]

33. No way

The whole reason he's so desperate to keep Ukraine out of NATO is because it would then be forever out of reach.

Not to mention, with the way the Russian armed forces are performing, NATO forces would thrash them even if the US forces stayed home. Plus, in all likelihood, Ukraine is going to be a hell of an insurgency. Even without taking the economic pain from sanctions into account, they're going to have their hands full trying to subdue Ukraine for a long time.

[Sapient Donkey]

34. One thing is clear, the Russian military isn't up to the task

There are analysis from before this all started that pointed out the logistical problems they are bound to have. So, I’m thinking if did attempt grab land in a NATO country, then he’d have decided to go nuclear. What other choices would he have? But as usual, I’m just an idiot on the internet with no idea what I am talking about.

[radius777]

37. No - this is what alot of our establishment 'experts'

don't get. Putin/Russians are intimidated by NATO and know it will be the end of them if they only breathe on NATO territory.

Our 'experts' have long thought that appeasing Putin, by not letting nations like Ukraine and Georgia into NATO would stop Putin's aggressions. But all that has done is incentivize his aggression. Because they are not in NATO and he knows there not will be a response. He also knows that NATO's rule is that an applicant must have complete control of their borders. So Putin intentionally compromises the applicant's borders to prevent qualification.

[dumbcat]

38. No