Democratic Dominance of the Nonwhite Vote Continues to Slip

[Celerity]

That’s a Huge Problem for Their Electoral Theory of the Case

https://theliberalpatriot.substack.com/p/democratic-dominance-of-the-nonwhite

By Ruy Teixeira

In 2020, Democrats lost 10 points off of their margin among nonwhite voters (Catalist two party vote). While Biden won anyway, that result raised troubling question about the Democrats’ electoral theory of the case.

Here’s why. The overwhelming proportion of voters in the country are white—72 percent in the last election. A reasonable expectation is that that number will go up a bit to 73 percent in 2022, given standard midterm turnout patterns. Since Democrats tend to lose the overall white vote by solid margins, the Democratic electoral theory of the case is based around carrying the much smaller, 27-28 percent of voters who are nonwhite by far larger margins.

Rapidly declining margins among nonwhites obviously call this strategy into question. It may be objected that Democrats still dominate the nonwhite vote and that nonwhites are growing as a share of voters. Well, there’s dominance and then there’s dominance—a change from overwhelming to merely very strong can make a significant difference. Take 2020. In that election, Democrats’ declining dominance of the nonwhite vote meant that, despite constituting a larger share of the vote, nonwhites actually contributed less to the Democrats’ overall margin than they did in 2016.

Since 2020, the Democratic dominance of nonwhite voters has continued to decline. The latest manifestation of this was the turnout patterns in last Tuesday’s Texas primaries which suggested continuing movement to the GOP among Texas Hispanics. Also recently, there was the surge of Asian voters against the ultra-progressive school board members in San Francisco. And in the 2021 elections we saw significant attrition of Democratic support among both Hispanics and Asians. The signs of this deterioration are also unmistakable in recent polling data. Here are some examples:

snip

[JI7]

1. The country is becoming more non white so this isn't necessarily bad

or as bad as it may seem .

Plus these examples given like the SF School Board are things that Democrats shouldn't be supporting anyways .

Crime is the one issue that is hurting democrats with minorities because cities tend to have more minorities and when we talk about businesses being looted and other issues so many people talk about big corporations but it's the people that are working in these places that are affected . Large numbers of these people are minorities and liberal leaning . There was a Rite aid employee shot and killed by some thugs . A nurse was attacked and killed just days before retiring . And so many other stories like this .

Social media is full of right wingers attacking democrats on crime. Anytime there is a crime story in a blue state the comments are full of Democrats in control . But in stories on Red States you don't see people commenting about Republicans being in control.

[Scrivener7]

2. You can bet that republiQans have a woodlice campaign going on, under the scene, to

vilify us to this voting segment and turn them against us.

And you can bet that we do not have any under the radar campaign going on to counter it.

[Celerity]

6. They have hammered us in Florida and in Texas (2 entirely different Latino groups) with targeted

attacks, tailored for a specific area and demographic.

An AOC type is never going to play well in most districts in either state.

The one exception I can think of off the top of my head (and remember this name, he is likely to become quite the topic here in 2023) is Greg Casar in Texas-35. Casar (he calls himself a Democratic Socialist) was endorsed by Our Revolution and Justice Democrats.



TX-35 is around +35 Dem, so he is a shoe-in to win the general

[Sympthsical]

3. I think politicians need to chill a bit with listening to the activist base

One of the things I've been listening to more and more is the Latino community and how they view their issues. Rep. Gallegos (sp?) was on Bill Maher the other week, and he touched on it as well.

There's kind of a . . . white paternalism that's set into our party over the years. It's certainly something I've noticed my whole life as a gay man. "Well, you're a minority, so you must think this and feel this way." Problem is - not necessarily. And so it has gone for many communities of color.

Take Latinx. Actual Latinos don't use it. They actually mostly dislike it. But activists and our official organizations plaster it all over campaign literature, press releases, op-eds, etc. It's completely tone deaf. It's alienating. It's out of touch.

It feels like majority groups like to talk at and over the minorities they're purporting to support. I just want to say, "Oh honey, all this isn't about you."

People need to chill on thinking what the loudest people on Twitter think is an actual reality within communities. That's how we end up in skewed situations and positions that do not at all sit well electorally, and that most of the actual members of the communities don't even themselves really support. There is one topic, for example, that I will not even discuss here. Straight people have decided the position that the actual community does not even slightly universally hold is unspeakable. It's completely cockeyed.

I cannot express the sheer number of times straight people try to explain to me, a gay man, what the LGBT community thinks and feels and wants. When I point out, "Yeah, we're not really like that," they'll try to shut me down and shut me up. Well, fuck me then. I guess I really don't know what being gay is like or what other gay people think. Thanks, Party Karen!

So it is in other minority communities. I think our party is grossly misreading what the Latino and Asian communities are like. That paternalism, that, "Well, they're brown, so they'll be on our side," seems endemic to a large portion of our side's ideology.

Reality doesn't settle up like that, and it's becoming more and more apparent over time. You can't play that "brown people" card as easily as one used to. Especially once many of these groups really started integrating and seeing themselves as primarily Americans first. People are baffled when they see Latinos railing against immigration. Why? Have you not met people in that community? What kind of paternalistic racism on your part made you think they were good with illegal immigration somehow?

We think about this stuff stupidly, and we let the loudest Twitter voices shut us down into timidity to disagree.

It's going to bite us. It's already starting to.

[radicalleft]

5. That is a very well stated reasoning

that I agree with...the whole more offended than the offended ideology. SJW on steroids create more problems than they solve IMO.

[BlueLucy]

4. There is no question that electing ultra progressives' who can not govern has hurt democrats.

Last edited Fri Mar 4, 2022, 12:14 PM - Edit history (1)

I had to move out of Portland Oregon after 35 years. It just was not livable any longer. I'm too old to stay and fight for better.

[Celerity]

7. How was it it not 'livable any longer' ? TIA

[BlueLucy]

9. Bullets flying

and the city defunding the gun violence task force. I won't say much more since last time I was accused of RW talking point when it is a fact easily googled.

[Celerity]

10. Wow, did not associate Portland with gang banger free fire zones. That really sucks you had to leave

I hope you found a good city to live in.

It is not RW talking points ay all to want to get away from gun violence.

Cheers

[maxsolomon]

8. RW Spanish-Language Radio stations.

They're making a concerted effort there.

Propaganda works.