catwoman: Anybody besides me think that only negative polls are being...reported?
Rasmussen & Trafalgar are both crap polls (computer responsive automated polling) but the other sense of crap as well. They both are republican pollsters and pad to the right.
When trump was pres, rasmussen padded his approval numbers by 6 - 8 pts above the rest of the field average. While Biden's been president, rasmussen has counter padded his approval by 8 - 10 pts lower. This is corroborated by nate silver's 538 poll, which includes rasmussen in it's presidential approval poll average, but anti biases rasmussen by 8 pts. Real Clear Politics also has a poll average for presidential approval, but does not ant bias, it lists all polls at face value, including rasmussen which skews the poll to the right unfairly.
Here is todays '538' pollsters mar 04 2022 result for rasmussen and marist (had biden's appr jump after sotu):
Rasmussen 1,500LV 42% 55% /// adjusted:-44% 49%
Note rasmussen's face value 42% approval for Biden, with 55% dissapproval for 55 - 42 = - 13 net difference. Note the adjusted value which 538 assigns as 44% approval to 49% disapproval, for a -5 net difference. So rather than -13 net disapproval, 538 adjusts rasmussen to only -5 disapproval. Rasmussen padded 8 pts to biden's disapproval, according to 538's historical analysis of rasmussen (even tho other reputable polls have bidens' current net approval ratings worse)
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/?ex_cid=rrpromo
Here's today's marist poll which John's OP refers to:
Marist: 47% appr ... 50% disapproval /// adjusted 48% .. 50%
Marist has a -3 net disapproval for biden, which 538 anti biased by 1 (marist leaned 1 to R, actually pretty fair pollster) to 48 to 50 for an adjusted net diff of -2.
The adjusted net difference is what 538 includes in it's presidential poll averages. RCP includes face value, which allows crappy pollsters like rasmussen and trafalgar and harris (R) to cheat and skew RCP average to the right, by about 1 or 2 pts better for republican and worse for democrats (since there are usually a dozen or so polls in the average, it doesnt' reflect as a larger number thanks for that anyway)
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Rasmussen also is included in EVERY SINGLE PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL POLL done by 538 and RCP. That is because rasmussen is a tracking poll and posts a (padded) presidential poll result every working day as it averages a rolling 3 day track. Most reputable pplls post a presidential approval poll only once a month, like pew, gallup, quinn, nbc, cbs, abc and yes fox in this case. However, the RCP and 538 polling average only includes polls within a drop back period of approx 18 days, wherein if the poll is older than 18 days it is no longer included in the polling average. Thus the reputable polls are not included almost half the time, while the padding rasmussen is included EVERY SINGLE POLL.
Since 538 'adjusts', it compensates, but Real Clear Politics (RCP) does not, and allows it's poll to be skewed by rasmussen. That is because real clear politics is better pronounced real queer politics.
Proof: Mar 4 presidential polling avg from '538': 52.4 disappr, 42.6 appr = net 9.8 disapproal
......... Mar 4 pres polling avg Real Clear Politics: 53.5 disappr, 41.6 appr = net 11.9 disapproval
That, ladies and gentlemen, is the rasmussen padding effect.
(both poll avgs might be closer & sometime RCP will do better for dems, since they might be using different pollsters for that time period, but when the same pollsters are used in the avg, RCP sucks for dems)
PS: Having a bias of 1 or 2 pts is pretty normal. But 8 pts is abnormal. Trafalgar was 5 pts R, there is one pollster +4 D, I forget which.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president-biden-job-approval-7320.html
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