Putin May Be on His Way to Defeating Himself

[MineralMan]

He's a tyrannical head of state. No question. But even a tyrant needs loyal followers.

One of the reasons people follow tyrants is personal gain. If you're buddies with the boss, you get first pick - well...second pick...of opportunities that emerge. That's how oligarchs become oligarchs. Once you're an oligarch, you could get very used to your privileges and wealth. It's nice to be rich and powerful.

Now, suppose your leader suddenly pulls the rug out from under you. He does something that makes your wealth almost disappear. He gets your bank locked out of doing business. Your holdings in the tyrant's currency are suddenly worth next to nothing. Your international holdings get locked up by other countries, or even seized and liqudated.

When that happens, oligarchs tend to become unhappy. "WTF?" they ask.

If enough of your followers lose faith in you, and your venture or little war is going poorly, you're not leading from strength, and you can't lead from weakness. Not only that, if your currency is worthless, you can't make deals, and neither can your toadies.

Hmm...maybe Putin has taken a bigger bite than he can swallow. Maybe he's going to have to try to walk it back while saving face. Who knows. But, it's a lot of people who are getting less and less enamored of Putin every day. There is, or could be, a point of no return.

[lagomorph777]

6. One already has. More may follow.

I think the one who succeeds, won't do it publicly.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/1-million-bounty-on-putin-offered-by-russian-businessman/ar-AAUvfnL

[COL Mustard]

10. I'm not sure $1M is enough

Add some zeroes and you might get takers.

[ColinC]

12. With the ruble falling, $1mil becomes a lot more valuable.

[lame54]

13. Access access access...

Who knows where he is and how to get to him

[colorado_ufo]

18. Is he still married?

[ShazzieB]

38. No.

Divorced since 2014.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26850204

[colorado_ufo]

40. Thanks!

Perhaps his ex might have some interesting information.

[lagomorph777]

16. I agree. And some of these dudes have a lot of zeroes to add.

Well, unless it all goes to zero...

[Danascot]

52. Tell the oligarch whose $600 million yacht got seized

that he can have his boat back if he manages to take out Putin.

[Tommymac]

15. They already have. $1 Million to be exact. nt

https://fortune.com/2022/03/03/russian-businessman-1-million-bounty-putin/

[Walleye]

2. Could be true. Hatred and anger only go so far when you're cold and hungry

[allegorical oracle]

25. Exactly. While oligarchs may safely plot the end of Putin, millions of people are suffering. And

even if someone succeeds in Putin's disappearance, the homes, hospitals and livelihoods of those people have vanished. Power hungry authoritarians relish the misery they're creating. As has been said in this country during the past five years, it's all about the cruelty. We saw it, defined it, and could still be in store for the return of a cruel, authoritarian regime in 2024 -- unless we can stop it.

[erronis]

28. Good points. The US could see the return of a wannabe dictator who relishes cruelty.

I'm not sure that all those filthy-rich oligarchs (and the US varieties: Thiel, Mercer, Koch, etc.) are really in it for pure cruelty.

I do think that they have a very low level of compassion and empathy for others (other than their rich friends) and are perfectly willing to steamroll over the little people.

Replacing one failed oligarch with another isn't a good recipe for progress, democracy, and the good of the people.

[calimary]

57. A cautionary tale for sure.

With a few flashing yellow “Caution!” lights.

[JustAnotherGen]

3. It's going to take

severe 'pain' for the Russian people who still believe Putin's lies to wake up. I hope you are right.

[monkeyman1]

53. think about what you just wrote ? it's already there !

[JustAnotherGen]

54. Rest assured - I know precisely what I wrote

I mean the kind of pain where they KNOW their Leader did this to them.
Their leader lied.
And they have to overthrow the leader.

They aren't there yet.

[boston bean]

4. That would be nice. But not in time for Ukraine.

[Pantagruel]

5. Russian people need to just sit down in the street

They got nothing else to do as this list indicates:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100216438935

Why would the Russian everyman not revolt.Not just the oligarchs ready to get rowdy, IMO.

[Obvious85]

42. Amazing List, thanks for posting!

And I'm sure it's already missing new companies joining daily

[Thomas Hurt]

7. Those countries who wish to wash their nation state hands of international cooperation...

are fooling themselves. The international economy has its capitalist tentacles almost everywhere.

You can't extricate yourself and play the great individualist country anymore unless and expect to be anything other than a failed state.

Filthy "socialism" wins.

[erronis]

32. Not sure if the opposite isn't also true. Countries wishing to rid themselves of propoganda, lies,

Back in the good old days a border was a border.

Usually a wide river, perhaps a mountain range. Lots of times a language difference or skin color.

Nowadays the borders even have internet protocols (BGP) and lots of smugglers sneaking packets through the walls-o-fire.

I doubt the USofA (as an example) will be able to stop the crap from flowing in and affecting those with little cognitive skills.

[Wounded Bear]

8. Your keyboard to god's monitor...

hopefully, very quickly. Someone in Russia needs to go all Game of Thrones on Putin.

[redstatebluegirl]

9. The oligarchs start losing their hookers, houses and yachts it could get serious.

[gab13by13]

11. Former ambassador to Russia, Michael McFaul,

said that Russian oligarchs aren't going to do anything to Putin seeing as it was Putin who made them rich in the first place.

Not my opinion, Michael McFaul's opinion.

[lagomorph777]

19. But now he's making them poor.

So the logic reverses.

[SergeStorms]

29. I believe he's correct, too.

These oligarchs exist only because Putin allows them to exist. Deals were made, Putin always got his very generous cut, and they were allowed to practice business without any interference from the Russian government. Putin is the Russian government, and he could take away their privilege in the blink of an eye.

Could they just say, "to hell with Putin", and take their money (what they can get at right now, anyway, which is still sizeable) and move to some other country? Sure, but as long as Putin is in charge they can never come back to Russia, and they forfeit everything in country. Then there's still the question of Putin holding a grudge and having them assassinated via poison etc. Vladimir Putin, holding a grudge? Preposterous, right?

It's a delicate relationship between the oligarchs and Putin, but I think they'd go quite a long way in giving him free reign in this situation.

Or McFaul and I could be completely wrong. The situation could be more organic than that right now, and anything could happen. We're in uncharted territory here.

[AntiFascist]

37. Some of these oligarchs got their "seed" money from Putin's kleptocracy...

but then worked to build their fortunes. They need to be made to feel guilty about how they got their start and made to work toward bringing the kleptocracy to an end.

[wnylib]

47. Oligarchs feel guilty? Don't hold your breath.

[AntiFascist]

48. Squeeze the guilt out LOL n/t

[Stuart G]

14. Yes, "Russian Generals"...might become also.."be unhappy" & they can also defeat him..

...........and here is repeat:..."Putin May Be on the Way to Defeating Himself"

Especially if some of the generals told him, "Not to do it"................

And, .........."When you think you have seen it all, there is always more"

[getagrip_already]

17. problem is....

they are already so rich that cutting off their ongoing source of revenues isn't going to hurt them. Even a massive paper loss isn't going to ruin them. They also know what comes when they don't tow the putin line.

They will be perfectly content in their estates, with all the sex toys they want, and all the luxuries they need, until the regime naturally changes.

They will be much safer personally in "neutral" then actively pushing or pulling. The real risk to them will come when putin is gone, and someone else wants what they have.

Don't count on the oligarch's. They are going to play it risk averse.

[colorado_ufo]

20. Confronting Putin means

polonium in your tea and nerve agents in your underwear, plus having to move to a ground floor.

[getagrip_already]

21. besides, expecting these vladimists to side with the people or with the world.....

Is like expecting the gop to side with minorities and the poor.

It just isn't in their makeup. They are too far gone.

[Calista241]

46. They're probably all already poisoned, and if Putin dies, or doesn't make a phone call every day

they stop getting the antidote in their food, or sheets, or what have you. All in an automated fashion, so they don't know for sure, and there's nobody to bribe to make sure they keep getting the antidote.

At least, that's my evil mind head canon.

[Pantagruel]

22. A General Strike

has a better chance of unseating Putin than a coup or an oligarch assassin.IMHO.

[gab13by13]

24. I totally agree.

[gab13by13]

23. The Russian people are the only thing that will bring Putin down.

[L. Coyote]

26. "Twitter's reaction to Putin has helped me realize that ..."

Link to tweet

... continue reading here also:

.... Thread Reader ....

[TeamProg]

27. +1 - We're all hoping that is where Russia & Russians are headed.. Time will tell.

[kiri]

30. Prayers unanswered do not dissuade

This is not the history of prayer. One prays, prayer not answered. Maybe opposite happens. So, prayer was not fervent enough? Pray longer and more fervently. Repeat, triple down. Belief becomes more entrenched.

This is what really happens.

In the Vietnam years it was thought that returning caskets would lead to demand to end the war. Nope. What happened was, mothers could not accept their son died for nothing and his death was worthless. Support for the rationale for the war shot up.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

34. Vietnam War? ... until it did end the war. Soviets in Afghanistan? It really did end that war

Russians remember things.

[kiri]

58. coffins eventually have an effect

Of course, the number of coffins eventually have an impact, but only much later when the number reaches little towns here and there.

I know, as a grad student by-passed and counseling undergrads, we put our hopes on deaths reversing support. This failed to account for "we do not accept he died in vain". This failure to grasp normal human reactions to grief cost many more lives.

One cannot expect a dead son to have no meaning. Humans impose meaning when there is none.
Hence Q-anon.

This is my only point.

[palinny]

31. RU is an autocracy, not an oligarchy

My understanding is that Russia is not an oligarchy, so the oligarchs do not have power.
Russia is an autocracy where the power resides with Putin and military leaders.

[MineralMan]

33. Nothing is pure. Putin is also an oligarch.

While the wealthy in Russia do not have official power, they have wealth because they are loyal to Putin, and Putin has power, in part, because he is loyal to the oligarchs.

Everything is interwoven in real governments. There are no pure forms of government that actually exist.

[jaxexpat]

43. What do you make of these photo ops where Putin is real far from everybody, and alone?

Is he sending the world a message that he's not unaware that he's operating alone? If that's the case, we may not have seen his like since Stalin or never in all history. No world leader has ever been so technologically "hooked up" as is common today. Being alone and being a "sole power" has a whole new flavor. It gets even weirder when you consider that he's not doing anything without a thorough knowledge of his audiences and their reactions.

[MineralMan]

49. That's weird, isn't it?

I think it's paranoia of some kind.

[jaxexpat]

60. Perhaps he's channeling his knowledge of history into self-preservation.

I'm thinking of Hitler's near miss at a meeting around a crowded table.

Another thing, I had no ready answer for why the US is not helping the Ukraine to achieve air superiority. It's possible that they've already given them that. I read this am about the "shipping list" of military aid items. One of the important munitions was a large supply of shoulder launched stinger surface to air missiles. From what I've seen in the news this may have been a good investment. We hear little to nothing about Russian air strikes. I'm thinking that if the Ukrainians were dependent on aircraft for defense their disadvantage might be that their ground force would, perhaps, inadvertently shoot their own planes down. An isolated missile operator on foot may not be accessible to coordination with a reliable central air reconnaissance and dare not sit still long enough to get coordinated. Air superiority may just as easily be achieved by license to shoot down anything that flies.

[BeckyDem]

35. Let's hope so.

I keep wondering too, how can he step out of it and save face..enough to satisfy him and or those in his circle. I keep hoping he is not past that point.

[hamsterjill]

36. I hope you're right. I really do.

But have you factored in the absolute ruthlessness that is Putin? Putin will kill any that dare cross him.
Put their head on a pike as an example for the next one.

[CaptainTruth]

39. IMHO I think turning the oligarchs against him may be our best strategy.

Much of Putin's power comes from the rich & powerful oligarchs who surround him. If they decide to turn against him it could do a lot to damage him & reduce his influence.

Turning the population against him is important because if his inner circle turns against him & decides to "eliminate" him a new ruler will need to emerge, & having a new leader who gains massive popular support for "rejecting the ways of Putin" is perhaps the best outcome we can hope for, not just for the world outside Russia, but for the Russian people as well.

I've been seeing this picture in my mind a lot lately (The Ides of March, or the assassination of Julius Ceasar):

[link:?crop=1296%2C1620%2C433%2C57|]

( Note this link is to graphic image on the site of The Times (UK). From Wikipedia: "The Times is a British daily national newspaper based in London. It began in 1785 under the title The Daily Universal Register, adopting its current name on 1 January 1788. The Times and its sister paper The Sunday Times (founded in 1821) are published by Times Newspapers, since 1981 a subsidiary of News UK, in turn wholly owned by News Corp." )

[AZLD4Candidate]

41. That's why Soviet communism collasped. The oligarchs saw more opportunity without communism

than with it, so they let it die.

[DownriverDem]

44. We can only

hope.

[11 Bravo]

45. Well said, as always, MM.

I also truly believe that Vlad overestimated the Trump effect, while underestimating the strength and determination that Joe Biden brought to the Oval Office.

[cayugafalls]

50. Unfortunately, Putin is a murderous thug and they all know it. Cross him at your own peril.

When backed into a corner and left without any resources, a murderous rat will eat their own and not even blink.

We can only hope that he does not survive, but then I have to ask, if you are able to kill the murderous thug and replace him with another Stronger leader, has the world become safer?

I would simply put forth that a house built on thuggery and murder will never be a house where the world is safe.

[Happy Hoosier]

51. I'd love for that to be true. I doubt it is.

Putin has remarkable control over his country. And he has ruled by fear as much as conspiracy.

But we can live in hope.

[Emile]

55. You are forgetting one thing, if not for Putin these oligarchs would not be

oligarchsl

[MineralMan]

56. There is no honor nor loyalty among oligarchs.

[pwb]

59. It is like trump is speaking to him on that satellite phone

they wanted from the Russian embassy? It is that stupid that it could be him.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

61. Probability of a coup or revolt against Putin is 'substantial': military expert

Link to tweet