I'm not holding my breath, but this is interesting

[Wicked Blue]

Link to tweet

[SoonerPride]

1. This fits with the timeline of a 15 day war. (posted elsewhere on DU)

Without adequate supplies for a prolonged attack, I can see their entire operation completely imploding a week from now.

[PortTack]

3. And their young conscripts will desert even more than they already are

[Obvious85]

51. Russian went to war with Ukraine - AND LOST WITHIN 2 WEEKS

[uponit7771]

54. +1, ... and Putrid's petulant attacks on civilians. He can't win against UKR regulars so attack ...

... those he thinks can't fight back.

[PortTack]

2. Pray god this is true!

[BComplex]

4. Me, too.

Would that it comes to pass! Russia's war needs to collapse in upon itself, and the people need to get rid of that dick tater.

[quakerboy]

16. That is an insult

To taters. And dicks

[BComplex]

52. ...

[Mme. Defarge]

5. Bookmarked!

[timvrip]

68. Oui!

[liberalla]

6. I'm not holding my breath either, but I'm sure hoping it's true.

This war needs to end! Fingers crossed.

[relayerbob]

7. Hope so also

They've expended far more than they expected already. Would love to push them over the brink.

Definitely in the I'll believe it when I see it category, but certainly seems within reason

[Happy Hoosier]

8. I hope that is true.

If the Russians have insufficient resources to maintain the war and the whole thing collapses next week, I will gladly eat crow.

And it NATO and Biden know this and are binding their time, and it comes to pass, Biden will be rightly hailed a hero and genius.

However, that sounds pretty pollyannaish to me.

I think Putin will pour every possible resource into Ukraine. His reputation is at stake.

[wnylib]

24. Or he will create a face saving "reason"

for pulling out.

"Mission was only for good of Russians in Ukraine. Have saved Russians. Now is time for peace."

[CommonHumanity]

62. Hope he can find his "reason"

I don't care what it is as long as the killing stops.

[Emile]

9. I also hear TFG

is going to be arrested any day now!

[Lucky Luciano]

40. Hah! See what you did!

[Poiuyt]

10. Maybe yes, maybe no

The Russians have a history of fighting despite heavy losses. Witness: WWII

[wnylib]

25. But in WWII they were fighting for their own land.

In Ukraine they are the invaders and it is Ukranians who are fighting for their own land.

[Poiuyt]

28. Good point

Putin may not give up, but his troops may.

[Wounded Bear]

32. Putin is trying to say that Ukraine is "their land"...

we'll see, perhaps, how far he gets with that. It certainly seems that there is substantial public outcry to stop the war.

[Wicked Blue]

48. Pootie's song: This land was your land, but now it's my land

from Kharkiv to Chrenivtsy, from Odesa to Chernihiv

This land now belongs to me.

Zelensky: You f*cking WISH, svoloch (bastard in Russian)

[uponit7771]

55. I don't see where RU gets the supplies to do such. They'd have to roll them in protected and

... 75% of their current active and trained forces are in UKR

[Karadeniz]

11. Fingers crossed!!! The world needs this to be true!!!

[COL Mustard]

12. Good.

Let them spend themselves into starvation with this unprovoked and illegal "special military operation" in Ukraine.

Oh, and then soak them for reparations. All those yachts, private jets, mansions, etc. can be monetized if the governments are willing to do it. Hurt them and hurt them badly.

[Postal Grunt]

69. Monetizing

The return on monetizing those assets might not be as great as we'd like to see. The mansions, condos, and apartments might bring in a fair amount but used jets and yachts will probably take a while to sell. In between seizure and sale, they will still need maintenance to retain value. Who will pay for that maintenance? I have no objection to putting the big hurt on Putin's enablers but I think expectations should be well tempered on this kind of proposal.

[Mr. Ected]

13. Nukes.

That's the final move of a desperate cornered rat with an addled brain.

I don't think he'd do it, but thinking is dependent on reason, and rats can't reason.

[Lonestarblue]

22. I think Putin would use nukes depending on just how unhinged he is.

He thinks of no one but himself and what he wants. If he doesn’t get it, he’s likely to destroy what he can—just like a toddler who would rather rip a toy apart than share it. The question I have given the level of corruption in Russia is just how much the top military leaders are willing to do to placate Putin. Would they actually launch nuclear weapons if Putin ordered them to do it? They know they retaliation would be horrendous. And given all the early warning systems, they cannot imagine getting a first strike to knock out everyone else’s nuclear systems. And they risk a mistake now because no other country will assume that a potential attack is a false alarm. So are the generals willing to be destroyed for Putin’s ego?

[wnylib]

26. Destroyed by nukes if they launch.

Destroyed by Putin if they don't launch.

[Shipwack]

65. I agree with most of your post, but...

I can believe Putin would use nukes against Ukraine, anything from battlefield tac-nukes all the way up to the big city destroying ones. However, who would shoot nukes back at him?

Ukraine can’t, because “thanks” in part to us they gave up all their nukes. The U.S. is afraid to even declare a no-fly zone for fear of getting involved in a war with Russia… would they (or an ally) launch a nuke at Putin in retaliation for an attack on a non-NATO country?

If Putin truly believes he is going to lose, he can go nuclear against Ukraine with zero consequences, except for being painted in the history books as the bad guy, which will bother him not in the least, I think.

[bucolic_frolic]

14. The society so skimmed by Oligarchy

that its military is run as a just-in-time operation and cutoff from supplies it can't slog on very long?

Hey it's the hope for the weekend.

[Captain Zero]

56. That's probably it. Oligarchs skimming

Has also weakened the army.

[Tree Lady]

15. Kind of makes you wonder why Putin

Took this on. Did he really think they would just give up instantly?

[pnwmom]

29. He might be an even bigger, more malignant narcissist than the orange guy.

Though we don't know the depths to which the orange guy would have descended if he didn't have some decent people working for him.

[birdographer]

36. This shows us, though,

what would have been done to us if TFG had decided to launch a war. He did want so badly to use the military. He probably would have gone after Ontario. He could use his sharpie to include it in the US.

[Marcuse]

66. The stable genius wanted to liberate Greenland from Denmark.

[MarineCombatEngineer]

41. Yes he did.

He thought Russian troops would be welcomed with open arms so therefor, he didn't need massive logistics.

Also ponder this, he has only so many troops left, he's got to be watching the Chinese, despite the so called alliance, which I suspect is about as solid as the Hitler/Stalin "alliance" during WWII.

[keithbvadu2]

50. When Dubya invaded Iraq, it was only expected to take 7 days, a cakewalk.

When Dubya invaded Iraq, it was only expected to take 7 days, a cakewalk.
.

[uponit7771]

57. Yes, in 2014 UKR gave up in less than 2 days cause 98% of their equipment didn't work down to ...

... bullets being fired.

it was that bad on the equipment front

[GoCubsGo]

17. Their economy was't in great shape to begin with.

It wouldn't be at all surprising if this is true. The problem is that they're restocking by looting Ukrainian stores, banks, etc. I guess we'll see what happens on Sunday.

[BannonsLiver]

18. If this is real and accurate

Then their re supply efforts are well underway.

Link to tweet

?s=21

I saw another clip yesterday from a different location. Estimates are that it will take these re. Supplies a week to get onto the battlefield.

[wnylib]

33. If they make it.

[BannonsLiver]

35. Very true.

[pnwmom]

19. Even if this is accurate, the follow up post clarifies this only applies to resources in UKRAINE.

Link to tweet

[L. Coyote]

21. That "stalled convoy" is surrounding Abramov airport for good reason.

Never was 40-miles-long and never was stalled, they made their way directly to the airport and secured the perimeter. Perhaps the only reason it isn't a major resupply point at this time is the lack of complete air control.

[Hav]

23. This is a substantially different point

It should be added to the original post because so many will get the wrong idea.

[Wicked Blue]

44. Thanks for this update nt

[uponit7771]

58. 50 - 75% of the current TRAINED RU forces are in UKR right now. They'd have to get supplies to

... the soldiers equipment on field RIGHT NOW and they can't.

Just think, if RU could do rail or road (no air or other land because its too muddy) they would've done it by now.

[Gore1FL]

20. Christo Grozev clarified in a later tweet that "run out of supplies" meant those staged.

Sadly this isn't the end of the invasion, just the end of this batch of supplies.

Link to tweet

[Wicked Blue]

43. Thanks for this nt

[roamer65]

27. The Russian economy is FUCKED.

If this lasts another month, it won’t be just Ukrainians fleeing to the EU.

[pnwmom]

59. The problem is that Putin is not behaving rationally. The US and other NATO nations

are trying to figure out how to stop him without making him lash out, like a 2 year old with his fingers on the nuclear codes.

[smb]

30. They're In Big Trouble, If The "Hollowed Out By Corruption" Theory Is Correct

If their problems with fuel, maintenance, food, etc are largely the result of massive skimming and neglect, they really have no way to turn the situation around. What can they do? Order fresh supplies from untapped depots? Those supplies are probably just as riddled with cheap counterfeit parts, rations that expired when the idea of Donald Trump in the White House was a Simpsons joke, and empty boxes labelled with fraudulent paperwork.

[halfulglas]

61. This should be something to wake US up, too.

Instead of always throwing more money at our defense machine, start convicting more of our oligarchs and getting what we're paying our tax dollars for, not to mention the people who siphoned much of our Covid money in the last few years, (hello, Jared) but I can probably only dream of TFG's family going to jail.

[AdamGG]

31. It would be a nice note in history if Trump was Putin's asset to thwart the US

and then Biden was instrumental in deposing Putin.

[area51]

60. +1 n/t

[canetoad]

34. Good news

If this is true. K&R

[monkeyman1]

37. 2 bunker boy's in the world ! Putin & Trump !! start shit & hide !

[AntiFascist]

38. K&R...

If i've read the statistics correctly, most of Russia's army was participating in the exercises surrounding Ukraine, and most of those participating are now inside Ukraine. Russia will not be left with much of an army.

[Wicked Blue]

42. Hey Mongolia, if you were toying with the idea of invading

now might be the time

[AntiFascist]

45. or China...

[Slammer]

39. Resources? Reserves?

I've read sources saying that Russia has "resources" is a mistranslation and that it should be Russia has "reserves".

Russia at this point has committed 92% of its assembled forces into the fight.

At the rate they've been committing their reserves, they'll run out of reserves sometime Sunday.

Of course, Russia has more military elsewhere in their country if they want to withdraw them from where they're currently stationed and transport them into an area where they're already having trouble supplying food and fuel to the forces which are already there.

[Wicked Blue]

64. They are desperate enough to try conscripting war protestors nt

[MFM008]

46. No wonder

Pooty is pushing it.

[Silent3]

47. What kind of "resources" are we talking about here? Ammo? Bombs? Missiles?

Is it actually being suggested Russia could simply run out of the materiel needed to keep harming Ukraine?

And if so, would Putin start using nukes, or, say, chemical warfare, simply because he didn't have enough of anything else left?

[TeamProg]

49. Very interesting!

[Cha]

53. HOPE SO!

Link to tweet

[ancianita]

63. Bellingcat is almost always right. Sunday is less than 24 hours from now.

[BlueIdaho]

67. Use the Russian corpses for fertilizer

Sell the wheat to Russia.

[Sogo]

70. Re upcoming sanctions, it was reported on The Last Word last night, that

all of the current sanctions are a slap on the wrist compared to what it would be if the world cut off Russia's oil. They are the third (maybe second) largest oil exporter and can get by on the income from that alone. So if we really want to kneecap them, we have to cut off their oil....(my summary, FWIW, of what was reported on that show last night).