General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsLots and Lots . . . . . but what do YOU think?
There has been a lot of things stated as fact here on DU. Along with that is even more speculation, predictions, hopes, squabbling, internal arguing, rudeness, mutual support, even genuine concern.
All of this over the Russian invasion of Ukraine and issues surrounding it.
The question in this OP is simple:
Without arguing about it, what do YOU think will happen?
Will Ukraine survive as an independent nation?
Will Russia succeed in whatever it is they want to accomplish?
Will NATO enter Ukraine?
Will Russia expand into other countries?
Will Putin be taken out or at least deposed?
Lots of questions there.
What do YOU think will happen?
vlyons
(10,252 posts)nt
IrishAfricanAmerican
(3,815 posts)I can't see any other endgame at this point. Putey-pute painted himself into a corner.
The real risk now is will he manage to launch any nukes before he's taken out.
2naSalit
(86,502 posts)Is probably the answer, best if it's a Russian who does it. From what I have been hearing from a reliable source is that the emperor has snapped and is no longer rational. That's is the scariest part.
Wingus Dingus
(8,052 posts)Belarusian kids to fight their neighbors and die for Putin's mistake, because his people really hate him already--and then Putin's got TWO countries in chaos. That would be cool.
Wingus Dingus
(8,052 posts)smaller and not in NATO for a long while.
MineralMan
(146,282 posts)Firestorm49
(4,030 posts)This is no different than watching the talking heads on mainstream media. Right now, nobody has a quantifiable answer. All anybody can do is conjecture.
pwb
(11,258 posts)He will be found hiding in a hole soon.
David__77
(23,367 posts)I dont think it will involve engagement by US or NATO. Otherwise, I dont know.
discntnt_irny_srcsm
(18,479 posts)Just my opinion:
puturd is afraid of NATO and even more afraid of a bigger closer NATO. He may succeed in grabbing territory or having it "recognized" as no longer Ukrainian and getting an agreement that Ukraine will not join NATO.
Ukraine will survive and be used for years as an example of why russia is not to be trusted and is to be avoided as much as possible.
Occupations and annexations just don't really work or last:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_military_occupations
Maybe putin is retired as chief dictator or maybe he doesn't survive this campaign. Who knows.
Maybe russia gets part of Ukraine for a while and maybe loses Belarus for good.
ironflange
(7,781 posts)Ohio Joe
(21,748 posts)I think by about 3/17, the sanctions will really start crushing Russia. So
By about 3/10, Putin will need to make a decision to either go all in and throw everything towards capturing Ukraine
Possibly even including a small nuke
Or, start scrambling towards a graceful exit.
I dont think he can make either choice without the blessing of the oligarchs. So while I think his inclination will be to go all in, I believe the oligarchs will force him to find the graceful exit.
nuxvomica
(12,419 posts)The military leaders were promised it would only take two weeks, according to Malcolm Nance. After that, and with the cost of the sanctions hitting them, the military takes control and will need to make Putin the "fall" guy. Maybe even earlier if they don't see sufficient momentum.
JanMichael
(24,881 posts)Will Ukraine survive as an independent nation?
=====I don't know. If its government is captured then probably not. But will that happen? Maybe? 50% chance?
Will Russia succeed in whatever it is they want to accomplish?
=====Can't answer this. I do not know exactly what their goals are. I thought after getting the eastern and southern areas occupied that they might say "ok we're done and stop advancing.". That obviously has not happened. That wasn't the original goal. It may become the goal though.
Will NATO enter Ukraine?
=====No. They have stated this until they are blue in the face. Russia would have to storm into Poland, or use a nuke but even that's not 100%, to get NATO to react which would then be a disaster.
Will Russia expand into other countries?
=====Probably not. Why would they enter Belarus when it is already on the team? Maybe Moldova? They sure as shit won't try to take any of the Stans on the southern boarder. I don't know.
Will Putin be taken out or at least deposed?
=====Probably not. People can talk tough shit but they usually don't want to take the risk.
Lots of questions there.
=====Yes there are.
What do YOU think will happen?
=====I do not really have a guess which is what you've asked.