I Will Speculate on An End to Russia's Ukraine Invasion

[MineralMan]

I could very well be wrong, but here goes:

1. The invasion is not going well, nor is it going according to plan.
2. Ukraine has reportedly downed some Russian military aircraft.
3. A major military convoy is apparently stalled seriously north of Kyiv.
4. A group of Russian military folks just got themselves locked into a stalled elevator on their way to a rooftop. It seems the Ukrainians just shut off the elevator's power after they got into it and started going up.
5. Images show that Ukraine has flooded an area where a Russian convoy is located, by draining a nearby reservoir.
6. The Israeli Prime Minister has flown to meet with Putin.
7. Putin did not plan for this to be a drawn-out, long mission. Time is running out.
8. The rest of the world is pissed off about this, and is letting Russia know that it is unhappy with his ill-begotten plan.
9. The Ruble is worth less than a penny of US currency. This is a bad thing.
10. The Russian stock market is closed for the duration, because fail.

So, what is Putin's path here? He is not going to succeed with his invasion. He has run out of time and his military has run out of supplies. His military personnel are even more unhappy than usual, and may not carry out his orders promptly or enthusiastically. The logical response would be for Putin to say something like, "Well, that demonstrates that we can take Ukraine at any time we wish. However, in the service of our humanitarian mission, we are withdrawing our military from Ukraine for the time being. We can return on short notice if we do not get the cooperation we must have."

Then, he withdraws his troops, licks his wounds, and returns to his normal bluster and egotism. He declares victory, despite the obvious defeat, and withdraws into his shell for a while. Everyone breathes a temporary sigh of relief, and the heavy sanctions get withdrawn.

Why would he do this? Because if he does not, he will be unable to proceed with his "invasion," and Russia will go bankrupt entirely

So, that's my speculation. I'm putting it out there, just in case I'm right.

[msongs]

1. a token effort to shut down russia's oil exports is benefitting putin nt

[uponit7771]

12. Unnnn, Russia is trying to dump is oil on open market cause no one is shipping it (link)

https://theweek.com/russo-ukrainian-war/1010852/white-house-says-russian-oil-ban-is-still-on-the-table-but-nobodys

[DURHAM D]

2. Sounds right. Do what we do.

Declare victory and go home.

[uponit7771]

14. +1, .. but knock over all the chess board pieces before leaving

[dchill]

3. He can claim that he got all the Nazis in Ukraine, then withdraw.

So much winning!

[KS Toronado]

69. That's probably what he would claim

Plus he's not smart enough to figure out that the Russian people will eventually find out the truth about what
it cost Russia in lives & money. Putler reminds me of FailedCoupGuy, tell lie after lie believing people
are falling for their propaganda hook, line, & sinker. They're 2 peas in a pod, quite alike in many ways.

[NightWatcher]

4. The elevator thing is amazing. What to do what to do....?

Like someone on the thread said, I can almost hear the Curb Your Enthusiasm sound when I see the guy at the back right.

Link to tweet

[MineralMan]

8. Keystone Cops stuff, isn't it?

Embarrassing. That kid's expression is priceless. "We are soooo screwed here...."

Of course, the Ukranians will let them out eventually, I'm sure. "All right, boys, put your guns on the floor and your hands on your heads. We're watching. We'll take the elevator to the next floor. Come out with your hands on your heads and we'll take you somewhere safe. It's over."

[Locrian]

5. logical?

>>The logical response would be for Putin to

I'm not sure Putin is a rational actor at this point.
If he's *not* then its more like WWHD (what would hitler do?)
Crazy dictators rarely surrender.


I sure *hope* putin is on the "logical" side of the spectrum.

[MineralMan]

6. Well, even an insane person can sometimes tell that

the path they're on will not lead to their destination.

Putin has stepped into a steaming pile of crap in Ukraine, and everywhere he looks there is more crap to step in.

That's what I'm thinking, anyhow. Again, I could very easily be wrong in this assessment, but I wanted to lay out why I think I might be correct.

Putin must be embarrassed at this point. He may believe he needs to do an about face and try to safe what little face he can.

In short, he has stinky stuff on his shoe.

[relayerbob]

16. The best analogy I've seen ..

Putin is like a suicide bomber holding a hostage and a dead man’s switch.

[MineralMan]

17. Sort of. However, there's nobody near him, so he'll be the only one who dies.

I know...he could launch a nuclear attack. But he won't. That would destroy "Mother Russia" altogether, and he'd be dead. He's not that crazy, I think.

[relayerbob]

20. Sadly, I do

Battlefield nukes are standard Russian plans now, they’ve been training that way for over 15 years.

[erronis]

61. I think he would go nuclear. I think trump would have if he could have.

I'm not sure of putin's chain-of-command for actually unleashing these type of weapons (and there are more than just nuclear.)

I do think that the US was fortunate to still have some rational, non-political people that might have stopped trump's use of the red button.

Putin probably doesn't care anymore about russia or the glorified USSR. He cares about his own deification. Just like hitler he'll try to punish everyone else while he dies in his warped sense of honor.

Relating this to that tfg is like trying to equate an intelligent civilian to a slug.

[Quixote1818]

27. Yes, he looked rattled yesterday. Not confidant looking at all.

That is the first time I have ever seen him look that way his entire life. I think him looking nervous shows he isn't totally crazy.

[MineralMan]

28. Well, he clearly knows that it is not going well.

[wnylib]

68. True, Putin would never surrender.

But he could claim some sort of victory and then withdraw.

[uponit7771]

7. K&R, There are 2 military analyst on OSINT IINM who think the UA forces have a 50/50 chance now

... because there's no logistic support in UKR for damn near anything that's not in the far east.

Russia has to leave all of UKR now

That's where Putrid has really lost

[LostOne4Ever]

41. Does that include Crimea? (N/T)

[uponit7771]

42. No, not yet but the way things are going the Russians aren't going to be able to fight for

... Crimea either or the eastern part of the country.

They can't resupply what they have, there's NO WAY a column of vehicles sit for 5 days on the road ... all that equipment is Ukranian now

[monkeyman1]

55. truck drivers are hard to find ! ( snicker )

[uponit7771]

78. lol 👍,

[PortTack]

9. Factual points that must weigh heavily for pootie. He's has no good options

[quakerboy]

83. But does he Know that he has no good options?

He has built a structure around him that isolates him from reality. Who knows what his advisors are telling him, what information he actually has access to, what sources he believes

[iemanja]

10. Sounds optimistic.

[MineralMan]

15. Yes, it does. As I said, I could easily be wrong.

However, I am an optimist in general.

[relayerbob]

11. Possibly declare victory and leave

But that won’t end the sanctions, and without any sort of agreements from Ukraine, they will arm themselves to the teeth to prevent from happening again.

[bluestarone]

13. Just want to say,

I really really hope you're right!!

[Quixote1818]

18. Good analysis if he has any logical thinking left. I think he will stick it out for at least another

month or so to see if momentum changes or he can get some sort of break as he is not thinking clearly right now and his ego is overpowering his logical thinking. Just hope he doesn't totally lose his mind and start lashing out at everyone creating WWIII. But once he comes to his senses (if that ever happens). I think you are correct in how he will pull back. He will want to be given at least some sliver of territory from Eastern Ukraine I imagine.

[patphil]

19. I expect Putin will try to hang onto enough of Ukraine to call a ceasefire and make a deal.

He'll agree to withdraw with two conditions:

1) He gets to keep Donbass.
2) Sanctions are removed.

Then he'll negotiate back from that to keep at least Donbass and have sanctions eased somewhat.

He needs to save face, I don't think the Ukraine government will agree to that. It might take a while to rid Ukraine of Russian forces, but the Ukrainians are pissed, and probably won't accept much less than Russia leaving and all those seized accounts being turned over to Ukraine to help rebuild what Putin broke.
It all depends on how much pain the Russian economy and people can take.

[RussBLib]

23. maybe Putin will just hang himself

it seems to be the way to go for the super-guilty.

No redemption possible. Fucked it all up too bad. Good-bye.

[Quixote1818]

24. Yes! He has to get something out of this and that makes total sense.

That region has been a mess anyways since 2014.

[OMGWTF]

51. My highest and best offer is GTFO NOW!

Do not negotiate with terrorists. He gets nothing but scorn and bankruptcy.

[LastLiberal in PalmSprings]

71. There has to be unconditional surrender by Putin.."

Anything less will allow him to rationalize that he won, and the next attempt may succeed. T**** tells his base, "I got more votes than any previous president."

Russian state-aligned media outlet RIA posted and deleted an article over the weekend that hailed Vladimir Putin for victory over Ukraine as Russia helps usher in a supposed "new world."

In what some have already labeled an "embarrassing and revealing" mistake, RIA pushed the article out and quickly deleted it. The article carries a date and timestamp of Feb. 26 at 8 a.m. and remains web-archived and available via the WayBack Machine to read in full.

The report starts off by underscoring the victory as "restoring" Russia’s unity, not just geographically returning the country to its historical borders and reversing "the tragedy of 1991," but also hailing the country’s ability to overcome "temporary division."

Their surrender must require reparations to Ukraine, and has to include a promise to never initiate an attack another country. Ever.

Oh, and complete nuclear disarmament must be included so Putin cannot hold the rest of the world hostage.

[patphil]

75. I agree. Putin will have to be led to this position through sanctions and battlefield failure.

That will cause the oligarchs and military to put pressure on him.
My post was to show how intractable Putin is without that pressure. He doesn't care what the war does to Ukraine, or to his military. It's all about his ego.
He wants to reconstruct the USSR, and will use force and threats of wider war to get what he wants. If the situation goes to stalemate, he would ask for Donbass in return for ceasefire and withdrawal.

What he didn't realize was how determined the Ukrainians are to maintain their freedom.
They won't have any of his BS. I doubt if they will accept anything less than a complete withdrawal and forfeiture of all the seized wealth.

Personally, I think Putin is screwed. He can't back down because that would show weakness, but he probably won't win a battlefield victory. The longer the war go on, the better supplied the Ukrainians will be from NATO countries, and the worse the international nightmare for him, the oligarchs, and the Russian people.
Best possible resolution is a forced retirement, or perhaps a heart attack. Dictators never see it coming until it's here.

[dixiechiken1]

21. Doubtful...

Megalomaniacs don't back down, they double down. JMHO

[MineralMan]

22. OK. As I said, I could be wrong.

We'll see, in the end, I suppose. In any case, we can't alter the course of any of this.

[dixiechiken1]

38. Would that we could... *sigh*

I do hope you are right, MM. I truly do. I'm just not optimistic.

[lpbk2713]

25. Ukraine will make a lot of money in scrap metal.

Money made from damaged and abandoned Russian armored vehicles.

[MineralMan]

26. Sure. Why not?

They can probably rehab some of those vehicles, though, and add them to their own military stock.

I watched a farmer tow away a tank with his tractor.

[lpbk2713]

30. Nothing runs like a Deere.

...

[MineralMan]

31. LOL!

[BajaDoll]

29. Every one is missing the fact that

he has what I always thought was one of his main objectives. He has his land bridge to Crimea and warm water ports. If he withdraws but keeps that strip of land he has a legitimate "victory". His problem will be to hold it, and that will come at a huge cost and might, in the end, cost him Crimea as pissed off as the country is right now. IMHO

[uponit7771]

45. The only way he "holds" Crimea is with military force, he is slowly but SURELY running out of that

...seeing his supply lines are shot to shit.

I give it to the end of the month before we 90% of the 200k forces spent unless Belarus enters the fray.

Israel's ambassador has talked with Putler, lets see what they have to say

[gab13by13]

66. If Russia goes clear to Odessa and takes it,

Putin would have his land bridge and block off Ukraine's access to the sea. Russia would be able to resupply via the water. This is what I expected Putin to be going after, not the whole country. He is bogged down up north and even if he took Odessa I doubt he can keep it.

Putin is a monster, if he gives up on Kivy, gives up on killing Zalenskyy then he will bring in bombers and level the country and claim that he has wiped out the neo-Nazis. As the situation is right now, no way Putin is leaving.

[tinrobot]

32. He won't leave that easily. At the very least, he'll level the cities before going.

God forbid Ukraine has a higher standard of living than Russia.

He'll also try to hang on to the areas around Donbass so he has a corridor to Crimea.

And, who knows, he may pop the top off of a nuclear waste facility purely out of spite.

[Buckeyeblue]

33. I think you're right

I would also add that Ukraine will need to do a lot of rebuilding which will probably take a year or two. Putin might think that that will keep Ukraine from being growing its economy. And maybe the frustration of that will weaken Zelenskyy.

And this effort serves as a good play book if they decide to try it again.

I also agree with you that Russia has limited time before it will be bankrupt. I would think that scares the rest of the world as much as it scares Putin. What if there is someone worse than Putin waiting to seize power?

[DENVERPOPS]

56. Perhaps

DeSantis's evil twin??????????

[plcdude]

34. Always

Appreciate your contributions probably because I pretty much agree with you all the time. Thanks

[Hoyt]

35. Good speculation. I think he will withdraw to part of Ukraine along border,

declare victory, and go shoot an innocent bear cub.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

36. A big fat K&R!

[Doodley]

37. Putin needs a way out without losing face. That is what the West needs to work on.

[Ilsa]

63. Of course, if Putin loses face because someone blasted it off,

that works as well.

[Eyeball_Kid]

39. No.

If Putin withdraws, he loses. He has already defines victory in absolute terms. He destroys the myth of omnipotence and he is no longer feared. He dies a quick death. He also cannot give UKR an opportunity to get huge shipments of arms flooding into every corner of Ukraine. Regardless, he cannot defeat 20 million enraged and armed Ukrainians. So he’s a loser— politically, economically, militarily.

His doom is sealed… unless…
He flees to the US and runs to Trump in Florida. That’s a joke.

[Gaugamela]

40. I think the western allies should keep the sanctions in place until Russia agrees to

nuclear disarmament. Once you use the threat of nuclear strikes for extortion you lose your right to keep them.

[LostOne4Ever]

43. I like the sound of this! (N/T)

[uponit7771]

46. +1, especially if Putler is to stay in power

[Efilroft Sul]

48. Goddamn, I like that idea.

[Ilsa]

62. Agreed. They can give them yo Ukraine. nt

[SheltieLover]

74. Absolutely!

No question. He has threatened the world several times. Unacceptable!

[Hekate]

44. Looks like the Russian economy is rapidly turning to rubble, or, the ruble is rubble

🌻🌻🌻🌻🌻

[MineralMan]

47. LOL!

Rubble indeed.

[AntiFascist]

49. The stories of Russian failure are amusing, meanwhile...

Ukrainian civilians continue to be terrorized, there is an ever increasing humanitarian crisis, and the cost of rebuilding a devastated Ukraine continue to mount to the point that it may become financially prudent to let it become Russia's problem. Do we want to let this happen? More importantly, does Europe want to let this happen? We should follow their lead.

[bluewater]

65. Boomer Bravado by people 12,000 miles away should not be considered sufficient.

Ukraine needs more help now, the entire country is in danger.

[Rabrrrrrr]

50. I would not be surprised if Putin is assassinated (or "dies from a heart attack") soon.

The oligarchs have to be getting paranoid that they may never see their yachts or bank accounts or homes all over the world (meaning also: their easy money laundering factories) again.

[monkeyman1]

79. TDFG has a bounty on his head - Iran ! they don't forget !

WW2 nazi's were hunted down in south America into modern day !

[BMW2020RT]

52. You are probably not far off the mark.

I suspect he will order his Stop the Steal® assault team to leave behind as much damage as possible on their way out.

[FakeNoose]

53. Also add that shipping companies such as Maersk, and international airlines

... are refusing to make deliveries to Russia. Suddenly they can't get essential supplies into the country.

Supplies must be running low, and they won't be able to pay their bills in rubles anyway. A lot of stuff is happening that Pootie never figured on. Yes bankruptcy is a distinct possibility because his only exports are oil & natural gas. Europe says they aren't buying. If China cuts them off, look out!

[pandr32]

54. I agree with your 10 points and "the logical response" summation

But...logic isn't being employed by Putin. He has miscalculated hugely. Yes, he will and is lying about what he wants, the circumstances, and how the world is reacting. He's in a tight spot that is getting tighter by the hour. He was so sure of himself. After all, he has moved his pieces around the Western chess board with purpose for years now with much success--all with a single purpose and no regard for the harm. He must have felt like a mighty man--until this last week.
He cannot recover from this miscalculation.
If he were to do as you suggest he might--what of trust? All that would be proven is that the heavy sanctions worked to hogtie a dictator and menace to the world. He has caused great harm to a free country--its people, economy, infrastructure, buildings and homes. The cost of damage is enormous. Ukraine would need assistance to rebuild and recover.
Why would those sanctions be lifted unless Putin steps down? He is not honorable or trustworthy.
His own circle of oligarchs have been heavily hit as well. They would likely not want Putin to remain in power. Neither would the Russian military or the people of Russia.
There would have to be heavy conditions for Putin to withdraw. He could not be trusted to abide by anything that allowed him to "withdraw(s) into his shell for a while."
Putin would have to agree to retribution that would include absolute retirement and reparations. There would be no way for him to declare victory.
My two cents.

[bucolic_frolic]

57. I doubt Putin will act proactively or prudently

and I bet he doesn't know how long his military supplies or civilian supplies will last. He has no options aside from nuclear sabre rattling. I think regime change from resignation is most likely, though he may decide to negotiate if the option still exists.

[liberalla]

58. What can the Israeli Prime Minister do?

[MineralMan]

64. I don't know.

[Turbineguy]

59. The US republican party

is much more open to invasion from Putin than Ukraine.

The West can give the russian foreign reserves to Zelenskyy for rebuilding.

[lame54]

60. I didn't see the words...

Terminally ill(earlier reports not yet verified or debunked)
Crazy/insane/coocoo bananas(your pick)
Backed into a corner
Or
Mushroom cloud

[doc03]

67. I heard an interview this morning with someone

that wrote a book on Putin. He said Putin does not have a reverse.

[DinahMoeHum]

70. Putin better look over his shoulder from now on. . .

. . .because some pissed-off entity (Russian, Ukrainian, military commander, oligarch, even an inner-circle person) will take the risk to bump him off.

Bank it.

[TygrBright]

72. From your keyboard to the Divine Monitor! n/t

[ruet]

73. The More Likely Scenario...

is that Russian forces take Kyiv. Zolensky leaves Ukraine and sets up a government in exile. Putin installs a puppet government and a years long insurgency begins. Said insurgency fades away and Ukraine, as it was know post USSR, ceases to exist. Relatively speaking, Russia has an infinite supply of bodies and weapons. Putin has already spent enough of both and he's not going to let that go for nothing.

[TeamProg]

76. I hope you're right! But, if Putin starts WWIII, Putin, China, U.S., India and others combined

could end up nuking the living daylight out of every surface of the earth.

Or anything between that deadly scenario and what you speculate!

I hope you're right.

[Fiendish Thingy]

77. I wish you were right, but the last 24 hours says you're likely wrong.

Putin has started using high altitude bombers beyond the reach of Stinger rockets, and continues to use guided missiles launched from Russia.

Perhaps he may be shifting strategy from take control and install a puppet, to burn it all down and kill as many as possible. Once he runs out of bombs and missiles, then maybe he declares victory and leaves, but unless someone takes him out, I think the war will continue. The sanctions are just starting to have an effect, and may take another few weeks before both the oligarchs and average Russian really start to feel the pain.

[MadameButterfly]

80. I don't think he has the option to retreat

because the 40 mile long convoy of military equipment has not left room to turn around or an exit lane, nor a re-supply lane. This according to a US Army General on MSNBC.

Whatever is keeping them from moving forward may also be keeping them from moving back (are they broken down? out of gas?)

They timed this to get in and out before the thaw, which creates deep mud in which tanks get stuck. Weather has been unseasonably warm which is ending the winter early, keeping the tanks on the road so they can't go cross country. This may in part explain why they are bogged down.

Since bogging down, Ukrainians have destroyed bridges and attacked, creating more barriers.

This is just what I've picked up from news, I'm not up on all the details. I just think it's more than what Putin WANTS to do. It's what he CAN do.

We not only need to find a way for him to save face. We need to HELP him retreat. I don't know how one does that.

[Shanti Shanti Shanti]

81. Allow me, endgame is taking Odessa, southern ports, kill prez, give it 6 wks

Then pull back to river, take over eastern 1/3, declare victory, Iron Curtain descends

[marie999]

82. He has already used thermobaric weapons.

I think that if he has to he will use tactical nuclear weapons. I don't know if he has placed any in Belarus yet. He has 2,000 and the US has 100 in Europe.