"Russia Is a Potemkin Superpower" Paul Krugman

[Hekate]

Russia Is a Potemkin Superpower

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/28/opinion/putin-military-sanctions-weakness.html?referringSource=articleShare

Beware, Vladimir Putin: Spring is coming. And when it does, you’ll lose much of whatever leverage you had left.
Before Putin invaded Ukraine, I might have described the Russian Federation as a medium-size power punching above its weight in part by exploiting Western divisions and corruption, in part by maintaining a powerful military. Since then, however, two things have become clear. First, Putin has delusions of grandeur. Second, Russia is even weaker than most people, myself included, seem to have realized.
……
So far, it hasn’t worked out as planned. Ukrainian resistance has been fierce; Russia’s military has been less effective than advertised. I’ve been especially struck by reports that the early days of the invasion were hampered by severe logistical problems —……….
But Russia is looking less and less like an advanced nation.
…..
And Russia is starting to look even weaker economically than it did before it went to war. …..
…. For Putin’s Russia isn’t a hermetic tyranny like North Korea or, for that matter, the old Soviet Union. Its standard of living is sustained by large imports of manufactured goods, mostly paid for via exports of oil and natural gas.
This leaves Russia’s economy highly vulnerable to sanctions that might disrupt this trade, a reality reflected in Monday’s sharp plunge in the value of the ruble despite a huge increase in domestic interest rates and draconian attempts to limit capital flight.
….What, after all, are foreign reserves? They aren’t bags of cash. For the most part they consist of deposits in overseas banks and holdings of other governments’ debt — that is, assets that can be frozen if most of the world is united in revulsion against a rogue government’s military aggression.
……….
Finally, as I noted last week, Russia’s oligarchs have stashed most of their assets overseas, making them subject to freezing or seizure if democratic governments can muster the will.………
Still, Putin has one remaining ace in the hole: Feckless policies have made Europe deeply dependent on Russian natural gas, potentially inhibiting the West’s response to his aggression.
But Europe mainly burns gas for heat; gas consumption is 2.5 times higher in the winter than it is in the summer. Well, winter will soon be over — and the European Union has time to prepare for another winter without Russian gas if it’s willing to make some hard choices.
…….

More at link
Cross posted in Editorials
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EDITED for copyright brevity. Apologies: hope I slashed enough this time.

[Scrivener7]

1. That is an awesome description. Perfect!

And he's right to point out that spring coming is a really helpful factor in our ability to hamstring Vlad.

[PortTack]

2. An honest and hopeful assessment by Mr. Krugman...

[Sneederbunk]

3. I would consider nuclear weapons as another ace in the hole.

[Hekate]

5. True dat. Fiona Hill thinks he's nuts enough to actually use them.

[L. Coyote]

14. Can he make that decision on his own and have it carried out?

[Hekate]

15. Probably not. This past week I read that a Cold War-type hotline from the Pentagon to ...

… whatever its equivalent in Russia is has been installed. That implies some layers of military.

[Fiendish Thingy]

19. Hill walked that position back a bit on Colbert a few days ago. Nt

[Hekate]

20. Phew. Good to know.

[Fiendish Thingy]

22. It was subtle, backing away from an near certainty to just a possibility. Nt

[Jim__]

4. This Russian invasion definitely makes Russia's military appear wildly over-rated.

[Martin68]

7. The Russian military is at their best when it comes to defeating a foe by entirely razing a city.

Like they did in Chechnya. Subtlety is not their forte, but that was what was required in Ukraine.

[bluewater]

11. Excellent point.

The Russian military is structured for total war.
People can underestimate that at their own peril.

[artemisia1]

23. Hard to do that when your logistics and leadership are so poor. Nevertheless, point taken. nt

[bluewater]

24. Also remember at first Vlad was trying to "be nice" to his "brother slavs"

As for logistics and supplies, it took the US 19 days to take Baghdad, people seem to forget that.

Vlad's invasion is only in day #9 right now, and according to President Zelensky of Ukraine his country is in mortal danger and needs much more assistance immediately. I take him at his word.

It's one thing to mock Vlad and his army for morale purposes, but it is counterproductive to underestimated it's true destructive power when unleashed.

Cheers.

[artemisia1]

27. It tooks us 19 days to get to Baghdad ONLY because of an aversion to taking casualties,

our own, not because we could not take it in less time. We also didn't have miles of convoys broken down or stopped (out of fuel, bad tires, etc.) like the Russians do. Yes, UKR IS in mortal peril, yes, the sheer quantity of Russian arms and troops makes this extremely dangerous. NO, there is NO comparison whatsoever to our Baghdad run.

[Martin68]

6. Brilliant barb from Krugman.

[Farmer-Rick]

8. Thanks Hekate, you did a great job

But for those who read this just to find out what a Potemkin is.

It is a false or fake thing, like propaganda.

The origins of the word, from Russia no less, is from the stupid actions of royalty a Prince Grigory Aleksandrovich Potemkin-Tauricheski and war monger a favorite of Catherine the Great.

[Hekate]

17. Thank you

[2Gingersnaps]

21. Also one of the greatest propaganda films ever made, Battleship Potemkin

Director was Sergie Eisenstein, released in 1925, about a mutiny on a battleship because the crew was fed rotten meat for supper and the resulting riot led to the takeover of the ship, conveniently supporting revolt against power. Pretty limited release around the world if I'm not mistaken, a lot of copies were burned.

Synonymous with overblown and grand. Which was pretty much Potemkin, the army officer and lover of Catherine the Great's character. Excellent book on her, by Simon Dixon. She was a woman WAY ahead of her time. The last Czar was an inept autocrat, but Russia does have an incredibly rich history and what it has come to is a damn tragedy. They thought they were being "liberated" in 1917, it only went from bad to worse.

[Mme. Defarge]

9. I posted this article on Monday

and am glad that it’s now getting more attention!

[Hekate]

10. Thanks! It just showed up in my NYT spam and for a change I was able to read it...

I like Krugman.

[OMGWTF]

12. Solar power people!

[2Gingersnaps]

25. Wind too!

Something like 97% of Germany's needs are renewable!

[BlueIdaho]

13. Russia may return to its former status

Of a nation full of men wearing cardboard suits and riding concrete bicycles.

[eppur_se_muova]

16. Not long after the USSR collapsed, Russians described their own country as "Upper Volta w/missles"

They knew what the real situation was. Under Yeltsin, they thought they were recovering. But corruption flourished, Yeltsin promoted Putin, Putin declined to expose Yeltsin after he left office, and the hoped-for recovery never came.

[Fiendish Thingy]

18. Perhaps, once Putin is out, the west can negotiate Russian nuclear disarmament in exchange

For substantial economic aid.

Perhaps I’m dreaming, but if it takes awhile, and the sanctions are severe enough, the new Russian leaders might be willing to consider it.

[sarcasmo]

26. 10 year old Chinese tires will show how weak you have become.