General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsWTF is Russia doing??? Some thoughts.
Watching the events of the last week I've been mostly scratching my head wondering WTF they're doing. It's like clown show meets amateur hour.
I'm still not sure why they're fighting with one hand tied behind their back... not sure why they seemingly started the invasion "half assed".
But I think I've got an idea what they MAY be doing.
Here's ONE possibility.
What if Russia is trying to make Ukraine mostly uninhabitable?
After taking more control of the country, They can shut off the power, the water... all services and transportation of food.
They can encourage the civilian population to LEAVE Ukraine.
Why, you ask?
Because it will cause a calamity for the EU. If the EU needs to suddenly find housing, employment, food and assistance for MILLIONS of Ukrainians, it will cause financial turmoil/humanitarian emergency.
Once a larger population of the country is gone... it's 1946 all over again.
The Russians will move more ethnic Russians into Ukraine. Ever wonder how all those Central European nations got huge Russian populations post WW2? But instead of moving the inhabitants to Siberia... they send them to the EU.
If this is the case... expect to see the Russians moving slowly because there's no hurry.
They will take city by city, leave refugee corridors intact and "turn off" services as they go.
That's one possibility.
Irish_Dem
(45,640 posts)Russia will make Ukraine uninhabitable.
So there is no hurry, they will accomplish their mission in the end.
The Ukrainians who won't leave, the Russians will starve them out.
mobeau69
(11,079 posts)Eliot Rosewater
(31,097 posts)and money.
I dont know how they are going to do it, as long as he has power and money, nothing will change.
What we should have is a situation where if Putin or an oligarch tries to buy a popsicle, let alone anything of value, in the Arctic or outback of Australia, or anywhere on planet earth, they cant.
And if anyone is found selling to them they are imprisoned that day.
ps GOP by DEFAULT supports Putin murdering babies.
WarGamer
(12,106 posts)as recently as 25 years ago...
They're a resistant culture. You're not going to put them on their knees easily.
Claustrum
(4,845 posts)Yes, the exchange rate has gone to s*** but they can't buy or get any new product from outside anyways. But within Russia, even though ruble is worth nothing for the outside, they can't buy or exchange them anyways. So it really doesn't matter to them in the short term. They aren't suddenly paying 100x the rent because ruble has crashed. As long as they are buying local products, it doesn't matter ruble crashed. It is when they have to get a new shipment of Coca cola or Pepsi that the exchange rate matter.
And I bet they have some item reserved in the country so it would still be available for at least a few months. Though, sanction will affect them in a longer run as they can't get any new product or new money in as they can't do any business with the outside. But that would take months to years to shake out.
Lady Freedom Returns
(14,120 posts)"Rejoin the mother land or be destroyed ".
And a message to the world that they are a superior force.
Putin apparently has the idea that we are militarily weak. That he can do whatever he wants. And with him getting chummy with China, the more it looks like he wants a world war.
WarGamer
(12,106 posts)If he wanted to make a mockery of the Ukrainians and the West, he would have invaded with top of the shelf hardware.
He's emptied out the warehouses of a1970's and 1980's gear for the invasion. Nothing more modern than a T-72 tank... circa 1979 and the Su-25 has been leading the way??
No, if he wanted to send a statement he would have taken air superiority with S400 SAMs and SU-35 fighters... supported by cruise missile fire and PGM from bombers.
The real question is... WHY? No experts seems to know why.
Nevilledog
(50,686 posts)WarGamer
(12,106 posts)Look at the website that lists equipment destroyed. It's all old gear. Is that what you're asking about?
The Russians have a brand new T-14 Armata Main Battle Tank. It's nowhere near Ukraine.
And the Su27 family all the way up through the 35s?? That's the one in all the movies that has thrust vectoring and can stand up on it's ass like a "Cobra"? I think its in the new Top Gun?
Nevilledog
(50,686 posts)Yeah, I Googled, but there are tons of sites that feel very propaganda driven. Wish we had accurate info on the numbers of these other weapons.
Lady Freedom Returns
(14,120 posts)As a message to the other former states. He promises at the beginning of his rise to power to make Russia whole again.
WarGamer
(12,106 posts)Lady Freedom Returns
(14,120 posts)And he thinks were weak. The Orange Slug helped him come to that opinion.
Zorro
(15,691 posts)Create a humanitarian crisis and dare the West to intervene within the country.
WarGamer
(12,106 posts)Kablooie
(18,571 posts)If true they need it liveable.
Pobeka
(4,999 posts)Strelnikov_
(7,772 posts)of an army.
Putin, etc., are mushrooms, kept in the dark and fed shit as to the condition of the military.
What, maybe 1 ruble out of 5 in defense spending made it to the military, the balance going into oligarchs pockets.
I really don't understand what the big mystery is. They are an incredibly corrupt nation.
Its more plausible that Putins army is seriously fucked up from its YEARS of war in Syria and Crimea.
Add on rampant corruption and Putins delusions that Ukraine would fall in a few days, I think this is just a case of hubris and bad management.
Putin needs Ukraine largely intact to prop up his 2nd rate nation. I believe the simplest answer for why he didnt initially level the place is that he believed he could take control with a show of bravado and the Ukrainians would gladly rejoin the old USSR fold. He didnt want to tear his new pet to pieces
WarGamer
(12,106 posts)bdamomma
(63,657 posts)is a monster, who likes causing death and chaos to others. Do you think he wants the Russian people to see a free Ukraine and people enjoying their lives? He's proved it too in Syria, and Chechnya.
Turbineguy
(37,212 posts)All the old shit gets destroyed and the Russian taxpayer has to fork over for new stuff. And Putin grifts a percentage for himself.
Bad Thoughts
(2,514 posts)Putin certainly wants to inflict Aleppo on Ukraine's cities, but he may not have the full commitment of military leadership. New equipment might have flaws that they aren't willing to publicize. They may fear backlash of expensive weapon systems don't produce immediate victory. And much of their best tech might be designed specifically to face the US: they don't want records of their performance to be available.
Why would they use their SU 57 stealth jets? Using them would probably be an overkill, but American observers would gain practice detecting them. If any were shot down, if would be a tremendous loss of prestige. The German navy faced a similar dilemma in WW1: so much money had been spent on battleships that their loss could create political unrest.
WarGamer
(12,106 posts)Crunchy Frog
(26,548 posts)and probably intentional. They intend to obliterate the nation of Ukraine.
I personally think we should look at cutting off food shipments to Russia. Not enough to starve them, just enough to barely sustain them.
Chautauquas
(4,434 posts)but it's good to think about it in different ways as we try to make sense of the current calamity happening there. Bookmarking this, thanks for posting it.
WarGamer
(12,106 posts)Wouldn't be my first time.
rockfordfile
(8,682 posts)They're wanting NATO to come in. They keep baiting.
orwell
(7,754 posts)...this is what happens when you cede power to one small man with an inferiority complex and a big brain dead army who doesn't understand an unlawful order. ie. Bush in Iraq...
Stop looking for complex answers.
It is one man's psychotic break leading his country over a cliff.
Fuck testosterone...
Pantagruel
(2,580 posts)the effect on the Russian population. Putin can't jail everyone and these sanctions will bite. Putin is almost inciting a coup or a general strike that could unseat him.
Wingus Dingus
(8,049 posts)They thought Zelensky The Comedian would flee like the coward they probably assumed he was. The people would see this and be frightened, demoralized, and surrender quickly, with only pockets of resistance. A sporadic and ineffective defense by an increasingly mutinous/deserting Ukraine army. Western nations too preoccupied with pandemic, or too politically divided, or too interested in money and trade and energy, to organize and push back hard enough to hurt.
They lied to their conscripts and drop-kicked these befuddled, unprepared kids into invasion and combat, basically the opposite of how they took Crimea. Why? Because their performance wasn't going to be important, their MERE PRESENCE as they rolled in was to be enough. They didn't even plan to feed or house these guys. It just looks like utter hubris.
Wingus Dingus
(8,049 posts)Give Your Enemy Time To React, Regroup and Re-Arm. Usually invading armies try to avoid that scenario.