Professor of Strategic Studies sums up how screwed Russia's assault seems to be

[Emrys]

An analysis by Phillips P. OBrien, Professor of Strategic Studies, University St Andrews, Scotland, author of How the War was Won and Second Most Powerful Man in the World. Editor in Chief, War in History:

A tweet thread on why we are almost certainly overestimating the amount of strength the Russian Army has on hand, and the amount they can actually get to Ukraine when their first force losses get so high that it starts becoming combat ineffective. Yes, its logistics. @BoringWar

The Russian Army, like the Soviet Army before it, has manifested significant logistics problems for decades, and if anything the preliminary evidence is that the problem might be worse than expected. You can start with this report.

Soviet Logistics in the Afghanistan War
https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/citations/ADA233559

Basically Soviet logistics as shown in Afghanistan were too rigid, top heavy and wedded to doctrine. What it means is that when things went wrong, there was signficant problem adjusting. The way Soviet logistics was so road centric (and weak for that) is telling



Since the end of the Cold War, the Russians have undertaken nothing at all close to their deployment to attack Ukraine, which would be a challenge to any force. But is probably doubly for them as their logistical development also seems not to have progressed much.

Indeed the Russian Army now seems to have fallen prey to one of the great temptations of many militaries created by dictators--lots of flashy weapons but little consideration about how to deliver them (few trucks).



Indeed looking at this @WarOnTheRocks estimate, they Russians will struggle at 90 miles from working railheads. And they still suffer from the inflexibility mentioned by earlier reports at Afghanistan.

Feeding the Bear: A Closer Look at Russian Army Logistics and the Fait Accompli - War on the Rocks
https://warontherocks.com/2021/11/feeding-the-bear-a-closer-look-at-russian-army-logistics/

Here is another article highlighting the significant truck problem faced by the Russians (and their reliance on civilians to keep going--which will be a real handicap in any protracted war in Ukraine).

The Russian Army Depends On Civilians to Keep It Supplied. This Could Be A Problem In Ukraine.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/01/14/the-russian-army-depends-on-civilians-to-keep-it-supplied-this-could-be-a-problem-in-ukraine/?sh=3696717f72e3

If anything, early indications in Ukraine are that the Soviet Logistics problems are worse than expected. There are the basic problems of tire maintenance that has doomed some of the most expensive equipment Russia possesses. See @TrentTelenko for a few great threads

There is indications that basic rations have not been kept up to scratch, with soldiers given food seven years out of date, and at the same time running out of food already and having to loot from Ukrainian civilian supplies.

Putin's troops given food 7 years out of date as low morale and military flaws hinder invasion
https://inews.co.uk/news/ukraine-russian-troops-low-morale-military-weakness-hinder-putin-invasion-1494160

Clearly there is Ukrainian understanding of these weaknesses, which has led to their very effective and constant efforts to attack Russian convoys--and guess what they are doing. Destroying large numbers of precious Russian trucks.

Link to tweet

And if Ukrainian claims are anywhere near the truth, they are destroying some of the most important--fuel trucks. As of today, the Ukrainians have claimed to destroy 60 Russian fuel carriers--which would be a significant blow. aa.com.tr/en/russia-ukra….

Ukraine claims over 10,000 Russian soldiers killed since war
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/russia-ukraine-crisis/ukraine-claims-over-10-000-russian-soldiers-killed-since-war/2524783#:~:text=Ukraine%20claimed%20on%20Saturday%20that,its%20neighbor%20on%20Feb.%2024

One of the reasons the famous 40-mile convoy is such a disaster is that much of it is valuable trucks--which are probably out of fuel, with dead batteries, stuck in the mud and not salvageable. You can scan the convoy here.

Link to tweet

Why does this all matter--it reveals that almost certainly that Russian combat strength started significantly below the stated levels, and is dropping fast as damaged but not destroyed equipment still in Russian hands cant be repaired and resupplied.

And all of this will get worse as Russia's weak link of trucks further wastes away. It is impossible to calculate how far below stated levels of strength Russian forces are because of these logistic difficulties. A very conservative guess would be around 25%

Iam getting that figure from my own calculations in How the War was Won on WWII logistics for the Luftwaffe. Regularly one quarter of Luftwaffe aircraft were out of commission because of basic logistical problems. As the war went on, it was much higher than 25%.

btw, logistic difficulties might also help explain the incredibly deficient performance of the Russian Air Force. Both seeming to have insufficient supplies of directed munitions (thus having to use large numbers of dumb bombs), which means they have to fly low and be shot down.

Also might explain how relatively few Russian planes overall they can maintain in operations. Much fewer in number than expected before the invasion started.

Link to tweet

So, we give a very false idea of the realities of war when we talk about number of troops, AFVs, planes that the Russians deployed for the invasion. They started with fewer in combat conditions than we know, and it looks like Russian truck support is suffering hugely.

Logistics, as it always does, will play a significant role in determining this war, right now the signs are not good for Russia, but people are mostly ignoring it and talking, as always, about tanks and planes....

Retweeted this but probably should have put this here. This should terrify the Russians if it means what it could mean. They are already running out of trucks.

Link to tweet

Ukrainian path to victory is clear. Go for every Russian truck they can see, particularly fuel trucks. Russian Army will freeze in its tracks.

Btw. Replacing military grade trucks with civilian ones is catastrophic on many levels. You have to stick to better roads, they are less robust and you can’t stock spare parts for all the different models

We might be about to witness a logistic collapse

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1500213943012319252.html

Original Twitter thread here:

Link to tweet

To add to OBrien's closing points, a cold snap is forecast for Ukraine in the next week. This will be bad news for the population deprived of power, but even worse for the Russians' continued assault, given how bogged down their vehicles already are outside the dryer south and the fact it looks like their reinforcements may largely be ordinary civilian vehicles of various types.

[highplainsdem]

1. K&R

[NotHardly]

14. You know of course the hubris we've accused them of is our Achilies heel of stupidity

I got a buck.... prove me wrong

[Hoyt]

2. Sounds worse than Iraq's military in both Gulf wars.

Hope Russians don’t cut loose with about everything they have left.

[Wingus Dingus]

3. Chock full of info, thanks.

[Emrys]

5. There are a few typos in the original.

I've corrected only one: deleted an extra "not" in "which are ... probably out of fuel", which made no sense at all in context.

[Nevilledog]

4. K & R

[underpants]

6. An incredible amount of information. Great read.

Thank you.

[dalton99a]

7. But their parades were impressive

[monkeyman1]

8. maybe they can call uber ?

[artemisia1]

9. K&R for an extremely informative post. Thanks OP. /nt

[Quixote1818]

10. Evidently the Russian army had logistics problems all the way back to WWII

I just hears that they were terrible against Germany until the US sent them a crap load of trucks. They think all they have to do to win battles is have tanks etc.

[Emrys]

12. Wherever possible, they tend to rely on rail traffic for logistic support.

Unfortunately, Ukraine's rail gauge is compatible with Russia's (and Belarus's and, less importantly, Moldova's), but the Russians can't use it without holding towns along the railway route or they'd be sitting ducks.

This might be why they've been focusing on Kharkhiv, as it would be a key staging point to Ukraine's 1700 stations.

But then railways are highly vulnerable to sabotage and attack, so they might just trade one set of problems for another.

[Roy Rolling]

11. My Worthless Prediction

Before it’s all over, the term “rope-a-dope” will emerge to describe Biden’s seemingly sluggish response. Why interrupt an opponent n the process of defeating themselves?

Let invaders weaken themselves and if they don’t withdraw, the butterfly Ukrainians army should then sting like a bee.

[AZLD4Candidate]

13. Sun Tzu - never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.

[anamnua]

19. Wasn't that Napoleon? NT

[L. Coyote]

15. Thanks for putting this together.

Link to tweet

[NJCher]

16. I looked at that one pic and said

What? Minivans? He’s bringing in soccer moms?

[Emrys]

17. I appreciate all those thanking me for posting this.

But it took me about 15 minutes of copying and pasting.

The thanks belong to Phillips OBrien, who'll have spent a heck of a lot more than 15 minutes amassing his expertise, and all the other researchers who focus on the less humane aspects of human existence so that we can better understand them.

[Irish_Dem]

18. Same problems with the Germans/Japanese in WWII. US had the advantage.

The US gave the field officers and the men on the ground a lot of flexibility. And they was not married to doctrine or dogma.

US had more of a "Can Do" and "Get the Job Done" attitude.

[Tommymac]

20. Get thee to the Greatest Page!! Just awesome. MUST READ!!!! Bookmarking, K&R

Thanks for putting this OP together. A must read for those who don't have military knowledge.

"An army marches on it's stomach." Napoleon Bonaparte