What are the chances...

[ColinC]

Of this crazy thing happening: Ukraine not only pushes the Russians out of their country with a superior strategy and endurance -and support from the west, but also invades parts of Russia, expanding their territory in either a minor or major way -including retaking Crimea. Thoughts?

[Wingus Dingus]

1. Zero.

[ColinC]

2. They have indicated they may attempt to do so -at least retake the eastern cities

And they still consider Crimea as part of Ukraine. I wonder what's stopping them from trying to get some revenge and actually taking part of Russia? The only thing I could think of is Nukes, but would Russia really risk such a thing?

[Wingus Dingus]

3. I believe there will be a cease fire/negotiations that will

include either outright ceding disputed territory that Russia currently holds, or they'll hold a referendum on it. Crimea is gone and Russia will never give that up. In exchange for the ceded territory, and probably an agreement not to join NATO, Ukraine might be allowed to continue existing, if a bit smaller.

[ColinC]

5. I actually don't think Ukraine would go for that.

Before, I did. But with the increasing likelihood of their actually taking back Kherson and raffirming their grip on other cities in conflict, I am starting to think they may outright win this war. That being said, even if they win, they would risk the prospect of joining NATO in a major way.

[Hoyt]

6. Think something similar.

[lapfog_1]

14. never happen

eventually Ukraine will win. Might be weeks, or months, or even years.

When they do, expect retribution on anyone that supported Russia inside UKraine. Expect them to get all of eastern Ukraine back... and possibly Crimea as well.

[ColinC]

4. Of course, besides nukes, it would also likely cancel in chance they have of joining NATO.

And risk another russian invasion in the future. So yeah. That alone would make it pretty stupid.

[radius777]

7. Even without nukes Russia has the advantage of numbers

and weaponry and won't lose the primary phase of the war.

The best case scenario is the sanctions (which are severe, and could be even stronger if we sanction gas/oil exports) steadily weakening and isolating Russia while they are mired in a guerilla war in Ukraine for years.

Sanctions will work because the Russians, especially younger, have become used to a more Western and consumerist way of life and won't be happy otherwise. It's not just about raw resources (Russia has enough food an oil to sustain itself) but about not wanting to live in a drab Soviet style existence.

Ukrainians will never accept the Russian occupiers, such a project is certain to fail.

Thus under such pressures, at some point the Putin regime will fall apart and someone else will come to power, who will relinquish Ukraine/Belarus/Georgia (and accept they will join NATO) in exchange for the West lifting the sanctions and accepting Russia back into the international community.

[ColinC]

8. I've been feeling like this, but if Ukraine is actually taking back Kherson

And still hasn't lost any other major cities, I am becoming more skeptical that Russia can win the primary phase of the war outright or at all. The supplies and weapons being sent to Ukraine are and have been for years advanced weaponry capable of -if used efficiently (and it appears this is happening), to fend off all Russian forces.

Regardless of whether I'm right, I agree with everything else you said.

[radius777]

9. Putin will simply get more brutal and level cities.

That's his pattern. He then will declare that Kyiv has fallen and will install a puppet gov't. But it will never last because any territory he has taken will (as with Kherson) constantly be contested.

Putin - who lives in a kleptocratic bubble - gravely miscalculated the response from the West and from the Ukrainians themselves. He believed that the Western response would be meek/timid like it was when he annexed Crimea. He believed that many Ukrainians would accept him as a liberator.

[ColinC]

10. Think Ukraine will get ahold of more MiGs before this could happen?

And do you think it would make a difference?

[radius777]

12. General McCaffrey just said he doesn't think

any MiGs they may get could make much of a difference - I tend to agree. Because Russia is mainly pounding them on the ground more than the air. Which is also why any NFZ wouldn't help them much either.

The conventional Russian forces are just so overwhelming and superior to anything Ukraine has. However, what the Ukrainians have is a national pride and burning hatred for Putin/Russia - which will cause them to fight back over time (with the help of the West feeding them weapons and intelligence).

[ColinC]

13. Thanks!

I really hope you are wrong about Russia coming out on top initially. I also think that since it took them almost two weeks to take a major city (which may or may not switch hands), and the combination of sanctions versus the supposed heavy military losses, that Ukraine will at least force a ceasefire dividing the country's control. But I wouldn't be surprised if you are right.


Only time will tell for sure, I guess.

[Emrys]

11. Nil.

You're talking about areas where people actually live, not some game of Risk.

There are enough tensions in the borderlands already. Ukraine is going to have its work cut out rebuilding when the dust settles without taking on any more problems and unstable populations.

What it will need to do is secure its access to the Black Sea. That might have been one of the spurs for Putin's aggression, having already taken Crimea. I hope he won't end up being rewarded by hanging onto it.